ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[deltadog03]

have the UL winds not been favorable for the past 24 hours? I wonder why Beven states they are BECOMING more favorable.

There about as favorable as your going to get...Turn on the high winds, from the sat pics...WOW what a PERFECT upper level wind flow.

[KWT]

If a vortex comes through I think the NHC will still upgrade it because then they can get the various warnings out, then if the center does shift which I find highly likely (eventually this center is going to hit PR...thats when its a goner IMo) they can simply shift the system eastwards.

When you say "it's a gonner if it hits PR", So you MEAN that if the system hits Peurto Rico, the system is pretty much history and back to being a wave?

Not really I'm talking about the weak LLC thats far west, if it hits PR then a center relocation will likely occur into the MLC anyway, I remember Arlene I think it was in 05 (or cindy) doing something similar with the Yucatan.

[Stormcenter]

This excerpt is from this afternoon's NWS discussion out of N.O.
I wonder how this might affect 92L if it were to happen?

RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE
DEPENDENT ON THE WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WOULD BE TO OUR EAST...SO POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE LOWERED.
WILL NOT BITE OFF ON JUST ONE MODEL RUN SO WILL KEEP 20 AND 30
PERCENT POPS FOR NOW.

[CrazyC83]

If a vortex comes in in the next 2 hours, they will likely initiate with a special advisory.

[sfwx]

FXUS62 KMFL 141958
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
358 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...


IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
LEAST IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...CONCERNING FUTURE TRACK OF
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THUS...UNTIL SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS RESOLVED...WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN EXPAND WESTWARD...AND MAY ENCOMPASS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MID/LATE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS
AND LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS POPS/TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO SEEMS TO BE THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.


LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

[deltadog03]

Its only a matter of time...Remember, models still didn't develop until near PR...I think its 1 more good/great burst and then we have a TS.

[Iune]

If a vortex comes in in the next 2 hours, they will likely initiate with a special advisory.

What's a vortex?

[Lowpressure]

If a vortex comes in in the next 2 hours, they will likely initiate with a special advisory.

What's a vortex?

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE--VDM

[Gustywind]

14/1745 UTC 17.6N 61.6W T2.0/2.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Iune]

If a vortex comes in in the next 2 hours, they will likely initiate with a special advisory.

What's a vortex?

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE--VDM

What does that mean??
(sorry for these dumb ques.)

[greels]

SO......does this all mean I have another sleepless night here in the Turks & Caicos, wondering if this going to land on my door?

[RL3AO]

What does that mean??
(sorry for these dumb ques.)

Recon will send a VDM if we have a closed surface circulation telling us we have a TD or TS.

[tolakram]

Starting to look bad on the IR, convection is either collapsing or re-organizing.

Visible shows something happening.

[txag2005]

Starting to look bad on the IR, convection is either collapsing or re-organizing.

Visible shows something happening.

What effect could this have on possible development?

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to look bad on the IR, convection is either collapsing or re-organizing.

Visible shows something happening.

Its simple...dmin. Until a circulation forms at the surface, diurnal trends will still affect the system

[canegrl04]

Starting to look bad on the IR, convection is either collapsing or re-organizing.

Visible shows something happening.

Most likely reorganizing.COuld mean getting ready to ramp up

[KWT]

Its doing the exact same thing as it has been doing for the last few days at the same time, convection really decreases in size and strength, then in about another 6-9hrs the convection explodes back to live again.

[Sanibel]

I might be wrong but the main rotating convection area looks like it could be moving slightly faster in forward speed meaning a ridge might be grabbing it.


Vortex is just a fancy word for the counterclockwise spinning center of a tropical Low or cyclone. The Hurricane Hunter airplane flies into this strongest spinning center to collect data on the storm. It sends the data back in a "Vortex Data Message" telling critical information about the storm and its intensity.

[Derek Ortt]

Look for a major burst right over the MLC in about 1 hour

[KWT]

What if it doesn't do that Derek?
Just wondering?