ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Derek Ortt]

I think I see it already starting in the 1K visible

[KWT]

Very interesting, I can see some new convection popping as well on the 1k Vis imagery its just a matter of whether it'll be as large as the previous bursts IMO.

[jdray]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 141850
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
POSITIONED NEAR THE STATE LINE WITH OPEN WAVE/BROAD SURFACE LOW
NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. FULL SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH BASE OF
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A POTENT MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS TRAVERSING JAX CWA...WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
MAINLY OFFSHORE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 10 KFT CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS OVER THIS AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

NEXT IN SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY SHIFT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THUS...GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED N-S DISTRIBUTION OF POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS AROUND 60 PERCENT OVER MARION
COUNTY ON FRIDAY. HAVE CAPPED POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY
AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION (WITH POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)...WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING
ESTABLISHING OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN CONCERT WRT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE/
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY... AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA (IF REALIZED) WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...FORECAST BECOMES PROBLEMATIC AS AREA MAY BE IMPACTED
BY AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OR POSSIBLY BY
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE EACH DAY DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHOLESALE CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED.
==================================================


Interesting weekend coming up.

[gatorcane]

Headed very close to the Dominican Republic but should skirt just north of it, preventing it from getting killed:

[HURAKAN]

[AJC3]

I think I see it already starting in the 1K visible

Yup...exactly what I was about to post. Decent band developing on the south side of the MLC

[93superstorm]

This is looking interesting, lets see what happens:

[Comanche]

Derek, AFM, Nexrad-

If the LLC winds up under the MLC, does that change the outlook for future path? Does this wind up in the GOM based on this?

[KWT]

Yep you can see that band as well now on the IR, some decent tops showing again, tomorrows Dmax is going to be very interesting again.

That MLC has got a real good shape to it still!

[hawkeh]

Starting to look very interesting on the visible, great outflow. Starting to get a little worried about this one to be honest. I think we'll be seeing Fay tonight.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would place the center of the MLC near 62.5W right now ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html ), and it is pushing west at a good clip. In fact, the center seems to have jumped nearly a whole degree in just the last two and a half hours...from near 61.5W at 18:15 UTC to near 62.5W at 20:45 UTC. This jump west indicates to me that the MLC is probably still trying to catch up to the LLC, and it may be getting pretty close to doing so.

[Steve]

>>If the LLC winds up under the MLC, does that change the outlook for future path? Does this wind up in the GOM based on this?

They can't tell you that from this far out. I'd recommend that rather than having your question lost in the thread, go over to one of their threads on Tropical Analysis and ask them. They're still not going to be able to tell you this far out with any certainty though.

JMO

Steve

[jaxfladude]

One of my local TV mets aid this could be more of a problem for Southeast Florida come early next week...but said also to watch locally just in case.....

---------------------------------------------------------
Just My thoughts
...odds against this going "poof" are very high....one of the greatest upsets if this goes poof....
It would rank as a higher upset than that of the App. State victory over UM last year...

[gatorcane]

I see a center right at the point of the "pinwheel" shape I see over the MLC (see 17.5N and about 63W)..it's moving about 285 or so....I'm pretty sure that is where the LLC is developing as I type this....

I still say TS Fay at 11pmEST -- at the latest:

Image:

[KWT]

I don't think its sped up to be honest EWG, I think the MLC was on the western side of the convection the whole time and when the convection became shallower further west and starte dto pop up on the southern and western side it made it look like its jumped quickly west.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT THU 14 2008



LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH THU.
THE 00 UTC GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ALL FORECAST DEEP
LAYER RIDGING TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DRYING IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER...WHICH IS NORMALLY A DRY PATTERN FOR
THIS REGION. THE POP WILL BE 30 PERCENT SUNDAY...AS THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME RESIDUAL 500 MB TROUGHING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD THE POP WILL DROP EVEN FURTHER BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY AT 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
PERHAPS THE MOST INTERESTING FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
WHEN...HOW...(AND IF) A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT FL NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FORECASTING THIS SCENARIO
FOR SEVERAL CYCLES NOW...WHILE THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE NOT
BEEN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM (CURRENTLY 175 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS) MUCH AT ALL. THE LATEST MODEL CYCLES CONTINUE THIS
TREND...EXCEPT THAT THE ECMWF NOW TAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
NORTHWARD PARALLEL TO THE FL COAST INSTEAD OF TOWARD OUR AREA. THE
OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT ARE MUCH WEAKER. WHETHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF SCENARIOS ARE RIGHT...THE RESULTS WILL BE THE SAME OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS


AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOURNIER/BARRY
REST OF DISCUSSION...WOOL

[txag2005]

At this point, I imagine everyone located at the surrounding islands and along the US East Coast and GOM should stay aware. I don't expect Texas to be affected, but you never know, so I'm going to stay informed just in case.

[Evil Jeremy]

Sorry if this has already been posted. Just arrived in my inbox.

000
WONT41 KNHC 142039
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS NOT
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

Looks very impressive. Can't see how this is not at least a TD and probably Fay tonight.

[gatorcane]

Well looks like FINALLY the big EC trough is starting to let go of its grip. Check out the OBS along the SE FL coast showing those E to SE winds off the Atlantic ocean starting to come back in Miami-Dade.....expect them to work up the coast and we should see winds veer more to the East with time. It's been almost two weeks since we have seen the easterlies.

W PALM BEACH TSTM 74 68 81 CALM 29.99F
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 79 70 73 W12 30.01R
FT LAUDERDALE PTSUNNY 84 68 58 NW6 30.00R
POMPANO BEACH FAIR 83 68 60 W17 30.00R
PEMBROKE PINES FAIR 82 72 69 N6 30.03R HAZE
OPA LOCKA FAIR 79 71 76 S15 29.99R
MIAMI PTSUNNY 75 72 90 SE12G22 30.00R THUNDER
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 79 74 84 N8 30.00R THUNDER
HOMESTEAD PTSUNNY 85 75 71 E12 30.00R