ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances of this being similar to another G storm 20 years ago?

[RL3AO]

What are the chances of this being similar to another G storm 20 years ago?

We know storms can bomb in the NW Caribbean.

[KWT]

Thank you Alienstorm. Your Cuban radar clearly shows an eye crossing over the Hatian peninsula near 310 degrees or so. Skimming motion was land interaction illusion.

Careful using radar, recon has noted this hasn't got good radar presentation so not sure how much radar can be trusted.

[mattpetre]

The center could be skimming the coast with its eye if that motion I'm seeing of the eye bouncing in a glancing pass of Haiti is correct. Mattpetre may not know how close he came to being right. Or it is a mountian interaction illusion. It's possible Haiti and the High have sent it west.

Thanks for credit I probably don't deserve Sanibel. Now let's just hope this thing doesn't do anything crazy like hit Houston or NO. I have had a very sinking feeling about this storm since it was first classified a depression/storm, but sinking feelings are usually just because I'm tired or ate something too spicy.

Seriously though, it looks like all the ingredients have come together for a real whopper, all we can hope is that the ridge builds much stronger and pushes it into more land or is weaker and pushes it into more land; however, looking at the history (1900) really doesn't matter what the storm is when it hits the GOM if conditions are prime there. Just watching and hoping that something like the GFS intensity comes to fruition

[KWT]

Well the NW Caribbean is the best place for very powerful hurricanes, countless cat-4/5's have gone through there and strengthened rapidly.

I think this sort of track is quite possble, this is Lili 2002, not too long ago either:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

[AJC3]

Thank you Alienstorm. Your Cuban radar clearly shows an eye crossing over the Hatian peninsula near 310 degrees or so. Skimming motion was land interaction illusion.

Shows up nicely indeed. Unfortunately, the Gran Piedra radar site hasn't updated in two and a half hours, and the radar at Gitmo has a time hack of Jun 10th. Pilon and Holguin are up, but it'll be several more hours until the eye/center comes into view there. Where's the Cuban MacGyver when you need him?

[stormy1970al]

I also noticed earlier today on their video that JB and KR are thinking a Texas hit somewhere around Galveston.

I don't mean to put JB down or anything like that but if he said TX then I think I would look the other way. I would go with the NHC plots.

[Sanibel]

I'm fairly sure Gus is running the length of that arm of Haiti and wrecking up on it. Should bust it down until it gets back over water.

[mpic]

Will start getting some things packed and accounte for this weekend. Too close for me.

[Lowpressure]

I also noticed earlier today on their video that JB and KR are thinking a Texas hit somewhere around Galveston.

JB is all over the place this year. Stick with NHC...

Agreed, JB said Florida yesterday.

[mattpetre]

I also noticed earlier today on their video that JB and KR are thinking a Texas hit somewhere around Galveston.

I don't mean to put JB down or anything like that but if he said TX then I think I would look the other way. I would go with the NHC plots.

YES! Perhaps JB is saving us in Houston from this storm! Well, he actually is placing it at the current most populous place in the middle of the cone. I for one think everyone on the coast must take this very seriously, and I actually don't have a problem with storms being hyped a little (just to get general attention.) It's a fine line that the media must walk and we all know that.

[mattpetre]

I also noticed earlier today on their video that JB and KR are thinking a Texas hit somewhere around Galveston.

JB is all over the place this year. Stick with NHC...

Agreed, JB said Florida yesterday.

UMMM, I believe the NHC was pointing toward FL initially too. Let's not forget he's not going too far off the NHC projections most of the time. He just tends to talk much further down the road than they tend to do, which can be dangerous (for his reputation.)

[Iune]

What are the chances of this being similar to another G storm 20 years ago?

We know storms can bomb in the NW Caribbean.

You mean Greta right? or is this Gilbert?
This

Or This


But Gilbert was already a cat3 when was by Hispaniola

[Texas Snowman]

While I certainly agree with a previous comment that forecasting a storm's path should never be based on Climo, I do think that Climo can give historical trends of where storms tend to go at certain times of the year.

With that said, the tracks that pop out to me are the 1900 and 1915 hurricanes that went into Galveston. They are both fairly similar to the path that Gustav has taken thus far, with the 1900 track being perhaps the most similar.

Galveston had a propensity to get hit with major hurricanes in the early 1900s, a trend that waned in much of the rest of the century with a few notable exceptions like Alicia.

I guess all of this is a fancy way of saying that Galveston would appear to be long overdue for a major 'cane to hit the island in the month of September.

[AJC3]

What are the chances of this being similar to another G storm 20 years ago?

We know storms can bomb in the NW Caribbean.

You mean Greta right?

Gilbert

[KWT]

Phoenix's Song, he means hurricane Gilbert, till 3 years ago the strongest atlantic hurricane ever...

Looking increasingly messy now thanks to Haiti, really doing a good number on gustav thanks to its small size, doubt its a TS now.

[dwg71]

UMMM, I believe the NHC was pointing toward FL initially too. Let's not forget he's not going too far off the NHC projections most of the time. He just tends to talk much further down the road than they tend to do, which can be dangerous (for his reputation.)

NO nhc had a track that was turning west just north of Cuba. Never had a line disecting Miami like accuweather.

[perk]

I also noticed earlier today on their video that JB and KR are thinking a Texas hit somewhere around Galveston.

JB is all over the place this year. Stick with NHC...

Agreed, JB said Florida yesterday.

He also said across Florida and up the east coast with Fay, and we know where that ended up.

[dwg71]

While I certainly agree with a previous comment that forecasting a storm's path should never be based on Climo, I do think that Climo can give historical trends of where storms tend to go at certain times of the year.

With that said, the tracks that pop out to me are the 1900 and 1915 hurricanes that went into Galveston. They are both fairly similar to the path that Gustav has taken thus far, with the 1900 track being perhaps the most similar.

Galveston had a propensity to get hit with major hurricanes in the early 1900s, a trend that waned in much of the rest of the century with a few notable exceptions like Alicia.

I guess all of this is a fancy way of saying that Galveston would appear to be long overdue for a major 'cane to hit the island in the month of September.

An area cannot be overdue.... each year is independent.

[x-y-no]

UMMM, I believe the NHC was pointing toward FL initially too. Let's not forget he's not going too far off the NHC projections most of the time. He just tends to talk much further down the road than they tend to do, which can be dangerous (for his reputation.)

No they weren't. The first forecast track was right along the north Cuba coast, every subsequent forecast has been further south.