ATL: IKE Discussion

[Blown Away]

I still have a hard time buying this WSW motion till northern Cuba. Perhaps the ridge will build northward and break as Hanna moves away, or perhaps the broad trough in the mid-west can actually reshape or erode the ridge at some point, but I can agree with the current NHC track without changes.

Take a look at the latest WV loop. Ridge is building north of Ike now. Coming down fast.

So you would not shift it much further S after the latest model runs?

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't see anyone saying that the 18Z NOGAPS shifted way Right...

Thats because everyone wants it to go to Cuba. One thing Ive noticed, is when a hurricane is about a week away, during that week models tend to shift back and forth between left and right extremes, before eventually settling on something in the middle. No one is safe right now.

[Blown Away]

Ike still hugging that 23N line for now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[meteorologyman]

the trough extended from Hanna to Gulf moving NorthWest, is it forecasted to go back east/south east

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
I see dry air moving towards that trough (tail)

[Sanibel]

I think some people were seeing the backfilling of the NW quadrant as west movement.

[HURAKAN]

Once again, we will get a better idea when the NOAA plane investigates Ike's surroundings. I remember just a week ago the models were showing Hanna almost over Florida but after the NOAA plane investigated the surroundings, the models agreed on the track that Hanna has taken, which has been much farther east.

I think a lot of people are calling a won war for Florida when the war is not over yet.

[wxman57]

I don't see anyone saying that the 18Z NOGAPS shifted way Right...

Thats because everyone wants it to go to Cuba. One thing Ive noticed, is when a hurricane is about a week away, during that week models tend to shift back and forth between left and right extremes, before eventually settling on something in the middle. No one is safe right now.

I'd just as soon have it blow apart tonight and be gone. But the NOGAPS model is one of the worst for hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin - at least in 2008. It took Gustav NE across the DR and out into the Atlantic at right angles to the other models, for example. It wildly swings way left and way right of all the other models.

[wxman57]

Once again, we will get a better idea when the NOAA plane investigates Ike's surroundings. I remember just a week ago the models were showing Hanna almost over Florida but after the NOAA plane investigated the surroundings, the models agreed on the track that Hanna has taken, which has been much farther east.

I think a lot of people are calling a won war for Florida when the war is not over yet.

Yeah, I hope the data helps. Not much to do now but wait - and go to bed. I'll be in the office from 5:30am-5pm tomorrow. Will post anything that I find interesting.

Night, all.

[tolakram]

The eye is nearly gone but the outflow is looking better.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's a little misleading when people quantitively state that "south Florida" is "in the clear." Don't lose sight of the fact that the Florida Keys comprise a portion of "south Florida."

This conundrum would be resolved if people specified that they were referring to "southern MAINLAND Florida" or "metro SE FL."

[Burn1]

This is not a very large storm as far as size wise, just like Andrew....This things hits, at best in the southern keys probably won't be much felt north of Miami-Dade

[NEXRAD]

Movement seems nearly due west to me, maybe just a little south of due west, based on watching the CDO movement and the eye/circulation center movement (since the eye's sometimes been obscured).

- Jay

[thetruesms]

I think some people were seeing the backfilling of the NW quadrant as west movement.

I disagree - with the lat/lon grid on, it looked pretty apparent to me that the storm center had a few hours where, while not necessarily due west, was only a hair south of due west. But ultimately, the WSW motion between NHC's first and second points is fairly close to due west, and is still virtually dead on.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is not a very large storm as far as size wise, just like Andrew....This things hits, at best in the southern keys probably won't be much felt north of Miami-Dade

We heard you the first time.

So, what do you guys think will happen with the 11PM track? I say the center line gets moved southward, to the middle of the straits.

[Sanibel]

Dead on trop points 255*-260*

[jinftl]

Maybe the 255 heading...probably more like 260 or 265 the last few hours...is giving the west movement impression...crazy i know

I think some people were seeing the backfilling of the NW quadrant as west movement.

I disagree - with the lat/lon grid on, it looked pretty apparent to me that the storm center had a few hours where, while not necessarily due west, was only a hair south of due west. But ultimately, the WSW motion between NHC's first and second points is fairly close to due west, and is still virtually dead on.

[NEXRAD]

I think some people were seeing the backfilling of the NW quadrant as west movement.

I disagree - with the lat/lon grid on, it looked pretty apparent to me that the storm center had a few hours where, while not necessarily due west, was only a hair south of due west. But ultimately, the WSW motion between NHC's first and second points is fairly close to due west, and is still virtually dead on.

It's worth using some imagery aside from the usual IR/IRWV. I've found the shortwave IR really helpful for tracking the eye, and with shortwave IR, Ike's moving nearly due west. For the 11PM advisory, latitude should drop by perhaps 0.1

- Jay

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



This image is NOT out to 120 hours. Just my personal thoughts right now. Any questions/comments are welcomed. The reason I did this forecast is because this is my first forecast completely on GE (none of it on Paint or PPT). I will start full text forecasts tomorrow and I will continue until I have to prepare.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Water vapor loop

The trough to the Northeast and ridge on top seem to be following Ike. Note also the protective Westerlies remain well established over all but extreme South Texas.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't see anyone saying that the 18Z NOGAPS shifted way Right...

Thats because everyone wants it to go to Cuba. One thing Ive noticed, is when a hurricane is about a week away, during that week models tend to shift back and forth between left and right extremes, before eventually settling on something in the middle. No one is safe right now.

I'd just as soon have it blow apart tonight and be gone. But the NOGAPS model is one of the worst for hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin - at least in 2008. It took Gustav NE across the DR and out into the Atlantic at right angles to the other models, for example. It wildly swings way left and way right of all the other models.

Thats true...the nogaps has...well...sucked this year, and shouldnt be taken seriously, but its solution should be acknowledged, even if it is just for "funsies." What I meant in my post above was that this is still 5 days out and it wouldnt be surprising if the models shift north a little again tomorrow. Nothing is set in stone and everything needs to be considered.