ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[hiflyer]

Shall we watch SoFla news eat themselves? grin
http://www.wsvn.com/video/live_1.php

[Aric Dunn]

look i know it looks good.. .. but there still are NO observations that indicate anything at the surface..every hour i check and re check for ship reprots, recon, all the islands, and nothing ..
i hope something happens soon so we can stop playing the guessing game as to where the final LLC will form.

[Aric Dunn]

[Bocadude85]

Well looks like FINALLY the big EC trough is starting to let go of its grip. Check out the OBS along the SE FL coast showing those E to SE winds off the Atlantic ocean starting to come back in Miami-Dade.....expect them to work up the coast and we should see winds veer more to the East with time. It's been almost two weeks since we have seen the easterlies.

W PALM BEACH TSTM 74 68 81 CALM 29.99F
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 79 70 73 W12 30.01R
FT LAUDERDALE PTSUNNY 84 68 58 NW6 30.00R
POMPANO BEACH FAIR 83 68 60 W17 30.00R
PEMBROKE PINES FAIR 82 72 69 N6 30.03R HAZE
OPA LOCKA FAIR 79 71 76 S15 29.99R
MIAMI PTSUNNY 75 72 90 SE12G22 30.00R THUNDER
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 79 74 84 N8 30.00R THUNDER
HOMESTEAD PTSUNNY 85 75 71 E12 30.00R

I pointed that out earlier gatorcane when Boca was reporting SE winds high may be building in....

[Comanche]

Well looks like FINALLY the big EC trough is starting to let go of its grip. Check out the OBS along the SE FL coast showing those E to SE winds off the Atlantic ocean starting to come back in Miami-Dade.....expect them to work up the coast and we should see winds veer more to the East with time. It's been almost two weeks since we have seen the easterlies.

W PALM BEACH TSTM 74 68 81 CALM 29.99F
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 79 70 73 W12 30.01R
FT LAUDERDALE PTSUNNY 84 68 58 NW6 30.00R
POMPANO BEACH FAIR 83 68 60 W17 30.00R
PEMBROKE PINES FAIR 82 72 69 N6 30.03R HAZE
OPA LOCKA FAIR 79 71 76 S15 29.99R
MIAMI PTSUNNY 75 72 90 SE12G22 30.00R THUNDER
WEST KENDALL PTSUNNY 79 74 84 N8 30.00R THUNDER
HOMESTEAD PTSUNNY 85 75 71 E12 30.00R

What exactly does this mean for Future Fay? Will this impact steering one way or another?

[Tropics Guy]

Been tracking Storms for a long time, this is by far the best "wave "i've seen , IMHO believe that this is a least a TD already & could be Fay tonight.

TG

[KWT]

Yep big burst just west of the MLC, you can see the circulation well as the convective core its had weakens slowly, expect it to blow up again in about 6hrs time just like the last few days.

[wxman57]

Derek, AFM, Nexrad-

If the LLC winds up under the MLC, does that change the outlook for future path? Does this wind up in the GOM based on this?

That won't change anything. However, there's a chance the northerly turn could come before Florida, over south Florida, or just west of the Peninsula. There's nothing to steer it west of 85W. Winds across the NW Gulf will be from the west in the mid to upper levels.

[KWT]

Long term it wouldn't but short term I'd guess wxman57 it may make a difference, given how close its progged to be to DR a slight adjustment may make the difference between the mountions and the sea...

[gatorcane]

Derek, AFM, Nexrad-

If the LLC winds up under the MLC, does that change the outlook for future path? Does this wind up in the GOM based on this?

That won't change anything. However, there's a chance the northerly turn could come before Florida, over south Florida, or just west of the Peninsula. There's nothing to steer it west of 85W. Winds across the NW Gulf will be from the west in the mid to upper levels.

Wxman you bring up a good point, folks along the SW Coast of Florida and even W coast of florida....better yet anybody from the Eastern GOM to Bahamas could be in the threat zone. The northernly turn will prove difficult to forecast accurately especially this far out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Derek, AFM, Nexrad-

If the LLC winds up under the MLC, does that change the outlook for future path? Does this wind up in the GOM based on this?

That won't change anything. However, there's a chance the northerly turn could come before Florida, over south Florida, or just west of the Peninsula. There's nothing to steer it west of 85W. Winds across the NW Gulf will be from the west in the mid to upper levels.

Wxman you bring up a good point, folks along the SW Coast of Florida and even W coast of florida....better yet anybody from the Eastern GOM to Bahamas could be in the threat zone. The northernly turn will prove difficult to forecast accurately especially this far out.

Best case scenario would be a turn east of the state. I would much rather be in the left side of a major than the right side of one.

[Sabanic]

Derek, AFM, Nexrad-

If the LLC winds up under the MLC, does that change the outlook for future path? Does this wind up in the GOM based on this?

That won't change anything. However, there's a chance the northerly turn could come before Florida, over south Florida, or just west of the Peninsula. There's nothing to steer it west of 85W. Winds across the NW Gulf will be from the west in the mid to upper levels.

Wxman you bring up a good point, folks along the SW Coast of Florida and even W coast of florida....better yet anybody from the Eastern GOM to Bahamas could be in the threat zone. The northernly turn will prove difficult to forecast accurately especially this far out.

Guess that leaves us in the clear, but for some reason I'm not going to bank on that completely as of yet. A little premature for that right now.

[Derek Ortt]

this is very similar to Claudette's genesis

It never formed until it had 45KT winds. It also reached 60KT just 12 hours after forming

[hiflyer]

SJU radar starting to pick up that new burst at extreme long range......

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

server slow...probably getting pounded by the locals....grin!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is the best invest I've ever seen in that is saying something. Nice banding and shape to the system. Hard to believe a LLC has not made it to the surface, maybe very soon.

[Steve]

>>What exactly does this mean for Future Fay? Will this impact steering one way or another?

Even though I don't think there's a chance in hell this would be a problem for Texas, you'd be talking late next week or next weekend based on the distance alone. That's too far out to be worried about the things that you should already have in place (kit, plans, place to go, etc.) should the need arise at some point later in the season.

JMO

Steve

[bigGbear]

Derek,

Which Claudette? Wasn't there one in 1979 and one about five years ago?

Also, San Juan radar is beginning to show some interesting activity - I believe it is somewhere near Anguilla - on the long range.

[jlauderdal]

Derek, AFM, Nexrad-

If the LLC winds up under the MLC, does that change the outlook for future path? Does this wind up in the GOM based on this?

That won't change anything. However, there's a chance the northerly turn could come before Florida, over south Florida, or just west of the Peninsula. There's nothing to steer it west of 85W. Winds across the NW Gulf will be from the west in the mid to upper levels.

Wxman you bring up a good point, folks along the SW Coast of Florida and even W coast of florida....better yet anybody from the Eastern GOM to Bahamas could be in the threat zone. The northernly turn will prove difficult to forecast accurately especially this far out.

yep, its called of cone of uncertainty

[jasons2k]

My notorious Aunt - the one who reported 26F in Dunedin FL this past January - just forwarded me an email from an alleged met in New Orleans. I don't know who this is or if it is truly valid - but anyway - here is his comment with my subsequent reply back to her below:

FROM A LOUISIANA WEATHER DUDE....TYPICALLY, HE IS SO CONFIDENT IN HIS PREDICTIONS:

THIS STORM DEFINITELY HAS A CLOSED LOW. ANYONE NOT DOWNCASTING CAN SEE THAT. WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A CANE OUT OF THIS ONE. THE ONLY PERTINENT QUESTIONS NOW ARE 'HOW STRONG' AND 'WHERE'S IT GOING'.

THE INFORMATION COMING IN TO MY WEATHER OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS STILL INDICATES AN 80% PROBABILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE GOMEX. FLORIDA'S WEST COAST HAS MORE TO FEAR THAN ITS EAST COAST FROM THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER // STROMTOP

My reply:

I just don't know about this.

I'd say chances in the Gulf are 50/50 and that would include path through Florida (instead of under it). I also think the East coast of FL is most at risk at this time, but if the ridge is stronger, there is definitely the Donna-like scenario to worry about. A small change in the pattern could yield a significant difference at what longitude the system will curve, ie., does it hit Miami-FLL or does it wait to curve and threaten Sarasota-Tampa? WAY too early to tell. In fact, a west-tracker into the GOM towards TX/LA is still on the table but not as likely (for now...).

One thing I can agree on is that it will be a hurricane and if it misses Hispaniola, it will almost certainly be a major. All of FL needs to pay attention to this right now, but I'd emphasize the Gold Coast (SE FL) for now.

Edited 5:01 to fix quotes and whatnot...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek,

Which Claudette? Wasn't there one in 1979 and one about five years ago?

Also, San Juan radar is beginning to show some interesting activity - I believe it is somewhere near Anguilla - on the long range.

The one 5 years ago that looked like a tropical storm. I think this is very close to it.