ATL: IKE Discussion

[terrapintransit]

Looks similar to an IVAN track.........

[gtsmith]

hey, i tried to show what i've been seeing...slightly south of west movement...certainly not WSW and certainly not "NW quadrant filling in"...this is the movement of the eye from 1815UTC to 0115UTC (7 hours of movement in this general direction) Picture's worth a thousand words.

[Sanibel]

I called my friend in south Miami. I asked him what he was doing in preparation for Ike and he said nothing, just watching it - but added that it wasn't coming there. He lives a half mile from the water near where Andrew's north eyewall came through. I told him he could have another Andrew coming at him if the track changes. He said he goes through this every summer and he would keep tabs on it as it went. He said his house survived Andrew with only a few windows blown in and some roof damage (he didn't live in it then). I'm thinking he plans to ride Ike out with his family even if it turns right at him. All I can say is if he does that he probably won't ride the next one out.

[stormy1970al]

Looks similar to an IVAN track.........

Ivan of 2004?
This is Ivan's track. I remember it well.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IV ... hics.shtml

[Dean4Storms]

I think we are fixing to see a more WSW movement, the mid/upper level shear is kicking him again from the trough to his north that is bearing down on the ridge. His northern half periphery outflow is very restricted.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

You can see the high that could push Ike wsw than west . but it seems like it would come north like the HRWF showed earlier in the day. lets see how it all plays out.

[MiamiensisWx]

I called my friend in south Miami. I asked him what he was doing in preparation for Ike and he said nothing, just watching it - but added that it wasn't coming there. He lives a half mile from the water near where Andrew's north eyewall came through. I told him he could have another Andrew coming at him if the track changes. He said he goes through this every summer and he would keep tabs on it as it went. He said his house survived Andrew with only a few windows blown in and some roof damage (he didn't live in it then). I'm thinking he plans to ride Ike out with his family even if it turns right at him. All I can say is if he does that he probably won't ride the next one out.

If the home only suffered cosmetic damage during the passage of Andrew's northern eyewall, why would he evacuate for this one? He would be more concerned in regards to surge than complete structural failure because of winds.

[Sabanic]

I know it doesn't matter or mean anything, but if Ike did come this way, and landfall looks like it would be ( if the forecast panned out speed-wise ) next Friday, which would be on September 12th. That is the 29 year anniversary of Frederic that plowed into Mobile on 09/12/79.

I was 19 and it was the worst night I have ever experienced weather-wise for sure.

[stormy1970al]

South FL needs to stay alert and take the necessary precautions. Things look better according to the models but hey they might change again. You never know. The best thing is to be prepare.

And whatever Ike decides to do after he enters the GOM (if he does) then us along the GOM need to pay attention.

I think someone mention earlier he didn't understand why people along the Gulf of Mexico were freaking out. We are not freaking out but keep an eye on the tropics so if we need to take care of business next week we can.

[gulfcoastdave]

the panhandle does not want to see another Ivan track !!

However , we are all fooling ourself planning things out 5 days....let's see what is up between the keys and Cuba abd SE FL before we think out 5 days

[Blown Away]

Looks similar to an IVAN track.........

Ike's track will be 1 of a kind, really there are no tracks that can be compared to Ike's.

[SunnyThoughts]

Gulfcoast dave, I agree. ( Im in Pace by the way) WAtching closely is about all we can do right now...and hope for the best for everyone in the path.

[stormy1970al]

I know it doesn't matter or mean anything, but if Ike did come this way, and landfall looks like it would be ( if the forecast panned out speed-wise ) next Friday, which would be on September 12th. That is the 29 year anniversary of Frederic that plowed into Mobile on 09/12/79.

I was 19 and it was the worst night I have ever experienced weather-wise for sure.

That just kind of haunted me when I saw this post. I was nine years old when Frederic hit the Mobile area. We lived in Fairhope near the beach. My parents still live in the same house. It was that night that my interests in tropical storms/hurricanes started. Fairhope got the east side of the storm which wreck havoc over here. And to make things even stranger my oldest child is nine years old.

So Sabanic have you heard any more comments from Dr. Bill Williams? I was wondering if he has commented some more on what Ike is possibility going to do.

[CajunMama]

We've seen some pretty rude posts on here today and tonight. If it's something you wouldn't want someone to reply to you then don't post it. We've already done some suspensions and there's more posters we're keeping our eyes on.

[Sabanic]

I know it doesn't matter or mean anything, but if Ike did come this way, and landfall looks like it would be ( if the forecast panned out speed-wise ) next Friday, which would be on September 12th. That is the 29 year anniversary of Frederic that plowed into Mobile on 09/12/79.

I was 19 and it was the worst night I have ever experienced weather-wise for sure.

That just kind of haunted me when I saw this post. I was nine years old when Frederic hit the Mobile area. We lived in Fairhope near the beach. My parents still live in the same house. It was that night that my interests in tropical storms/hurricanes started. Fairhope got the east side of the storm which wreck havoc over here. And to make things even stranger my oldest child is nine years old.

So Sabanic have you heard any more comments from Dr. Bill Williams? I was wondering if he has commented some more on what Ike is possibility going to do.

Nothing new today, but if I hear anything from him over the weekend I'll definitely post it.

[Evil Jeremy]

oy, I just read about the evac for the keys. Didn't think that it would happen this early, but it is the right call.

[HURAKAN]

For our friends in the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas, please take all preparations necessary to ride Ike and follow the orders of your local government and authorities.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

As I said in my earlier posts, I get the feeling the Southern FL peninsula may just get out of the cone by this weekend sometime with these huge shifts left in the track...

In fact I'm willing to say that Fay and Hanna are going to end up giving us more "weather" than Ike in Palm Beach County (on a side note I think Hanna caught some by surprise last night for those in SE Florida). Depending upon the shifts, Broward and Miami-Dade may be in the clear soon enough.

[Ed Mahmoud]

oy, I just read about the evac for the keys. Didn't think that it would happen this early, but it is the right call.

Only one way out, and nowhere to hide on the Keys. (Never been there, but seen pictures) Ten needless evacuations from the Keys would be cheaper than one evacuation that turned out to be needed but wasn't ordered. Thousands of lives cheaper.

[boca]

I think its a day premature to evacuate the Keys especially if the models keep shifting west. Wait until Sunday at least.If people evacuate and S FL is no longer in the cone the next time no one will evacuate for the next threat.