ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[gboudx]

WOW, GFS did a 180....hahah Well, def. have add this to the possibilities....

Wow, north of Brownsville.

Can you post a link for that please, I just can't seem to find all my model links at work.

Thank you

Here ya go.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[haml8]

Well the GFS doesnt give me any confidence.. You guys always say that these storms tend to go east of their projected landfall. If there is any truth to that then.. yuck

[PTrackerLA]

PT...It would have been a SETX/SWLA storm (0z run) but that trough picked Ike up.

Tuesday (Ike in GOM) hope, hope, hope, models won't flop (as much).

True but this latest Brownsville solution seems a bit extreme, anxiously awaiting the other models to see if they follow suit. Would be great for our area though. It's VERY nice having a quiet house again .

[gboudx]

If the GFS was at least a little consistent I'd take it more seriously. 00z showed Pensacola and it has been flip-flopping all over the place for days. Let's just wait and see until Ike makes it into the gulf before people get too excited. This will be a complicated forecast.

One of the best posts I have seen all day. Ike has not done for the last 24 hours what he was supposed to do according to the NHC, and until he does, or at least makes it into the GOM the forecast is still up in the air.

So you completely discount what many of the pro-mets on this board are saying about the forecast being pretty straightforward then? According to Mr. Lidner, and AFM I believe, it is not overly complicated. As you so often point out, yes we are several days away and things can change, but when the pro's are using their technical expertise to derive the forecast and are almost in unanimous agreement, it has to mean something.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET= Corpus Christi

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.09.2008



HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 78.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.09.2008 21.6N 78.1W STRONG

00UTC 09.09.2008 21.4N 79.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2008 22.2N 81.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 10.09.2008 23.4N 83.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2008 24.1N 84.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2008 24.9N 85.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 11.09.2008 25.0N 87.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2008 24.9N 89.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 12.09.2008 24.9N 92.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.09.2008 25.7N 94.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.09.2008 26.8N 96.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 14.09.2008 28.2N 97.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 14.09.2008 29.0N 98.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

[N2Storms]

[quote="gboudx"][quote="Sabanic"][quote="PTrackerLA"]If the GFS was at least a little consistent I'd take it more seriously. 00z showed Pensacola and it has been flip-flopping all over the place for days. [b]Let's just wait and see until Ike makes it into the gulf before people get too excited. This will be a complicated forecast.[/b][/quote]

One of the best posts I have seen all day. Ike has not done for the last 24 hours what he was supposed to do according to the NHC, and until he does, or at least makes it into the GOM the forecast is still up in the air.[/quote]

So you completely discount what many of the pro-mets on this board are saying about the forecast being pretty straightforward then? According to Mr. Lidner, and AFM I believe, it is not overly complicated. As you so often point out, yes we are several days away and things can change, but when the pro's are using their technical expertise to derive the forecast and are almost in unanimous agreement, it has to mean something.[/quote]


It doesn't sound as though thet think it is a straight forward...


IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.

[Sabanic]

If the GFS was at least a little consistent I'd take it more seriously. 00z showed Pensacola and it has been flip-flopping all over the place for days. Let's just wait and see until Ike makes it into the gulf before people get too excited. This will be a complicated forecast.

One of the best posts I have seen all day. Ike has not done for the last 24 hours what he was supposed to do according to the NHC, and until he does, or at least makes it into the GOM the forecast is still up in the air.

So you completely discount what many of the pro-mets on this board are saying about the forecast being pretty straightforward then? According to Mr. Lidner, and AFM I believe, it is not overly complicated. As you so often point out, yes we are several days away and things can change, but when the pro's are using their technical expertise to derive the forecast and are almost in unanimous agreement, it has to mean something.

I did not say that, but when you are in a cone, and dealing with a storm like this until it is over land and done with I am not going to put my guard down. That would be foolish right?

If it 90-100% straightforward with the forecast what use is the cone?

[dwg71]

PT...It would have been a SETX/SWLA storm (0z run) but that trough picked Ike up.

Tuesday (Ike in GOM) hope, hope, hope, models won't flop (as much).

True but this latest Brownsville solution seems a bit extreme, anxiously awaiting the other models to see if they follow suit. Would be great for our area though. It's VERY nice having a quiet house again .

Not really that extreme, actually in line with others. UKMET is down there, lets see what GFDL and HWRF do, they should be out shortly

[KWT]

UKMO has been down in central/southern Texas for a while now, it seems to have done better with the track of Ike over Cuba compared to say the GFS.

[ROCK]

PT...It would have been a SETX/SWLA storm (0z run) but that trough picked Ike up.

Tuesday (Ike in GOM) hope, hope, hope, models won't flop (as much).

True but this latest Brownsville solution seems a bit extreme, anxiously awaiting the other models to see if they follow suit. Would be great for our area though. It's VERY nice having a quiet house again .

Not really that extreme, actullay in line with others. UKMET is down there, lets see what GFDL and HWRF do, they should be out shortly

EURO will be out soon......and no it is not extreme...EURO showed something similar a few runs back.....UKMET and EURO leading the way....Who would have believed it....

[BigB0882]

So you completely discount what many of the pro-mets on this board are saying about the forecast being pretty straightforward then? According to Mr. Lidner, and AFM I believe, it is not overly complicated. As you so often point out, yes we are several days away and things can change, but when the pro's are using their technical expertise to derive the forecast and are almost in unanimous agreement, it has to mean something.

I think the problem is that while the may be agreeing rather nicely, the tracks have continued to shift quite a bit. Everyone agrees but it is always changing as to what they agree on. So it clearly isn't straightforward, IMO. Whether they want to say it is or not.

[gboudx]

I did not say that, but when you are in a cone, and dealing with a storm like this until it is over land and done with I am not going to put my guard down. That would be foolish right?

If it 90-100% straightforward with the forecast what use is the cone?

You didn't say that explicity, but you did say the forecast is "up in the air". Which yes, technically you are correct. But you've seen the comments posted about what some of the pro's think with it being fairly straightforward, so you must not really believe what their technical analysis is affording them to state. You'll always be correct when stating that "everyone needs to watch this because things can change"; I'm pretty sure everyone knows this, but we have some pretty good opinion from the pro's here and that can't be discounted as being "up in the air".

[gboudx]

So you completely discount what many of the pro-mets on this board are saying about the forecast being pretty straightforward then? According to Mr. Lidner, and AFM I believe, it is not overly complicated. As you so often point out, yes we are several days away and things can change, but when the pro's are using their technical expertise to derive the forecast and are almost in unanimous agreement, it has to mean something.

I think the problem is that while the may be agreeing rather nicely, the tracks have continued to shift quite a bit. Everyone agrees but it is always changing as to what they agree on. So it clearly isn't straightforward, IMO. Whether they want to say it is or not.

I'll just say it one more time and be done with this, but on the conference call this morning, Lidner said that the forecasted path is pretty straightforward. If you look on the TA forum there are others saying it as well.

Edit: Jeff didn't say that it will hit any particular town specifically. He said the steering is straightforward, not much complicated about it.

[cycloneye]

So far,GFS west,UKMET,west.Next CMC,GFDL and HWRF.NOGAPS and EURO after 2 PM.

[HouTXmetro]

We shall see.... if the EURO is still in South to mid Texas coast I'm officially concerned.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL=Galveston

WHXX04 KWBC 081728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.1 77.9 270./12.0
6 21.2 79.2 275./12.3
12 21.5 80.2 290./ 9.4
18 22.0 81.4 293./12.1
24 22.6 82.5 296./11.4
30 23.0 83.4 294./ 9.2
36 23.6 84.0 314./ 8.2
42 24.1 84.7 307./ 8.6
48 24.6 85.3 309./ 7.2
54 25.1 86.1 305./ 8.6
60 25.5 86.8 296./ 7.2
66 25.7 87.6 287./ 7.8
72 25.9 88.6 281./ 9.8
78 26.1 89.7 278./ 9.9
84 26.4 90.7 290./ 9.1
90 26.8 91.8 288./10.5
96 27.4 92.8 299./11.3
102 27.9 93.9 298./11.1
108 28.7 94.8 311./10.2
114 29.5 95.6 316./11.0
120 30.6 96.2 329./12.2
126 31.7 96.5 346./11.1

[Air Force Met]

GFDL into GLS.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... r/gfdl.txt

[smw1981]

If the GFS was at least a little consistent I'd take it more seriously. 00z showed Pensacola and it has been flip-flopping all over the place for days. Let's just wait and see until Ike makes it into the gulf before people get too excited. This will be a complicated forecast.

One of the best posts I have seen all day. Ike has not done for the last 24 hours what he was supposed to do according to the NHC, and until he does, or at least makes it into the GOM the forecast is still up in the air.

So you completely discount what many of the pro-mets on this board are saying about the forecast being pretty straightforward then? According to Mr. Lidner, and AFM I believe, it is not overly complicated. As you so often point out, yes we are several days away and things can change, but when the pro's are using their technical expertise to derive the forecast and are almost in unanimous agreement, it has to mean something.

So straightforward that 12 hours ago Ike was supposed to go WNW/NW through Cuba...instead he went pretty much due west. And the pro mets are getting their info from computers....computers are not infallible.

PS - Mets are humans too...although they are the experts, they do make mistakes (as do I in my field)... (With that said, I definitely still listen to them when they tell me my area is in a tornado warning, etc.)

[vaffie]

yIKEs!

[Sabanic]

Good luck TX