ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[cycloneye]

So Far at the 12z run=GFS,West,UKMET,West and GFDL West.

[dwg71]

GFDL into GLS.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... r/gfdl.txt

Its a huge shift west, I would not get excited about it, unless it sets up camp there. With GFS run well south, I would expect trend to continue. GFDL could still be outlier to the north.

[gboudx]

So straightforward that 12 hours ago Ike was supposed to go WNW/NW through Cuba...instead he went pretty much due west. And the pro mets are getting their info from computers....computers are not infallible.

PS - Mets are humans too...although they are the experts, they do make mistakes (as do I in my field)... (With that said, I definitely still listen to them when they tell me my area is in a tornado warning, etc.)

FWIW, in the 9:30am conference call with Lidner, he said it was going to miss the points to the south. So, in addition to having models, they also have human brains to use in analyzing the computer data and experience to rely on. And again, he said the steering was straightforward.

[deltadog03]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... rification

Models seem to have pushed further south again...Just remember they are flop soo many more times then this. Just remember what the models did for Rita...

[vaffie]

Note that the GFDL is also faster, it has landfall on Saturday morning at Galveston.

[Wx_Warrior]

I think some have a better grasp since 3 years ago...You should know that 'dog.

EDIT: I think the NHC remembers that every day!

[KWT]

Yep a good deal quicker then the models, also it has shifted much further west which is to be expected given Ike's intial motion being a westerly still...

Still GFDL is a horror track, Houston right into the NE eyewall

[Sanibel]

GFDL is one of those models that tends to "lead with its tail". If there's a trough feature programmed into it it will bend towards it at this time frame even if there isn't enough trough to pull it that way. Case in point yesterday when it was in recurve to the Panhandle. As I've been saying, of the two wavelengths GFDL tracks this current one under a strong ridge going west with an intense storm is GFDL's forte in 2008 at least. Poleward into the Gulf with slightly weaker steering features tends to see the second 'tail' wavelength stray a little more at this distance. It's tough to interpolate this with Ike not yet entering the second phase. If GFDL stands as dead trend accurate it should show a fairly accurate landfall in about 60-72 hours. If not the straying trend will be east. So far it has been accurate 48+ hours out but then inaccurately conformed right closer in.

This latest GFDL is not good news because it is in its more accurate west heading wavelength.

[dwg71]

I would have been more concerned for Houston had the GFDL not shifted past the border. Its just trending west like every other model. Lets see what HWRF says.

Actually looking at graphic it appears closer to Freeport, yes its a technicality but it is well west of NHC track.

[deltadog03]

GFDL much faster in in speed (as some have said) I wanna see it too believe it...To me, the steering currents look fairly weak.

[ROCK]

I would have been more concerned for Houston had the GFDL not shifted past the border. Its just trending west like every other model. Lets see what HWRF says.

the EURO is out but not at home to see it....Scott you have it....whats the scoop???

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF WEST to GALVESTON

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF is nasty..Takes due west then Wacks Galveston Bay from the south...Worst case IMO

[vaffie]

I would have been more concerned for Houston had the GFDL not shifted past the border. Its just trending west like every other model. Lets see what HWRF says.

the EURO is out but not at home to see it....Scott you have it....whats the scoop???

EURO isn't released for another hour or so.

[cycloneye]

12z run so far

GFS=West
GFDL=West
UKMET=West
HWRF=West

[dwg71]

HWRF is now south of NHC track. Again, the trend is west, west, west. lets see what euro does, all models shifted significantly west.

[HouTXmetro]

Still 5 days out so maybe we will be ok if the saying is tru about being at the end of the 5 day track.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW...NHC has Ike near Galveston early Saturday morning so it (time) wouldn't be that far off.

[dwg71]

HWRF is also closer to freeport or even west. Hard to say, close graphic is unavailable on loop as it gets closer to land.

[Stormcenter]

Still 5 days out so maybe we will be ok if the saying is tru about being at the end of the 5 day track.

Unfortunately for Upper Texas the NHC did a pretty decent job 5 days out with Gustav.
I don't like the looks of this at all.