ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jasons2k]

This is it: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Eyewall looks mostly intact (yellow ring), especially with the radar this far away...

[Brent]

This is it: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Eyewall looks mostly intact (yellow ring), especially with the radar this far away...

I was just coming to post that. I don't think this storm has weakened nearly as much as some people think. If it's not a hurricane still it's a strong TS and probably will be a hurricane again soon.

[KWT]

TCHP in the GOM is not that impressive but the SST's look pretty good and the storm will be moving into an environment of little shear once it gets into the GOM. The real question is how much interaction with land will the storm have.

Yeah heat content is plenty high enough for a major hurricane in the gulf, Nw Caribbean/S.Gulf would support cat-4/5 status as well it seems.

Cape Verde, yep totally agree with you, its going to have plenty of time over some very impressive heat content and also good conditions, no reason why this can't become a powerful hurricane in around 48-72hrs time before its flirt with west Cuba.

[mattpetre]

Thing I don't get is that we just had a local meteorologist saying it was emerging back into the water on the S. side of Haiti and pointed to IR in a place to the S. of the initial landfall. I think you are right that the radar is probably the eye, but why so much confusion on where the center might be?

[stormy1970al]

Lets say it stays on its present track that the NHC has projected for the time being but turns a little to the N. Would that put it closer inland than what they have listed? Thinking of preparation time for those on the Gulf Coast if it comes down to that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Thing I don't get is that we just had a local meteorologist saying it was emerging back into the water on the S. side of Haiti and pointed to IR in a place to the S. of the initial landfall. I think you are right that the radar is probably the eye, but why so much confusion on where the center might be?

because most weathermen on tv have no idea what theyre talking about.

[jasons2k]

We shouldn't get so hung-up on SST's or even TCHP

I heard Stacy Stewart put it this way back in 2006 here in Houston:

You don't need a full tank of gas to floor the accelerator to 100mph in a car

A hurricane doesn't need a full 'tank of gas' either, there is p-l-e-n-t-y of fuel in the GOM as long as conditions are favorable

[wxman57]

The max potential intensity charts indicate Cat 5 in the southern and central Gulf. Plenty warm enough. See below:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[KWT]

Yeah very true, as I said the heat content even in the northern parts of the gulf support a major hurricane and for now thats a big danger, Gustav probably is the biggest threat since Wilma 2005 to the USA.

Anyway the radar presentation is better then I expected, the inner core has held up which is going to be the key as to how fast this develops, still think it'll take a little while to do anything thanks to the land still being close but should start to get its act together.

[cycloneye]

For those members that haved not seen this radar from Eastern Cuba,you can see the center of Gustav emerging the Hatian coast.

[Sean in New Orleans]

IF NEED BE, Louisiana officials are saying they are prepared to begin contraflow on Saturday in the New Orleans metropolitan area. With Houma metro and New Orleans metro, including surrounding areas, the total number of people that would need to evacuate would be close to 1.7 million people.

[KWT]

Very quick to get the preperations started, given where the cone is its hardly surprising to be honest Sean, I think the authorities have learnt alot from 04 and 05 which is good to see.

[wxman57]

By the way, I'm still sticking with a track west of the NHC to north Mexico/south Texas. No reason to change yet. GLobal models still have quite a ridge over the NE Gulf early next week, with the exception of the GFS (upon which the GFDL is partially based). GFS takes Gustav to just west of south FL next Tuesday night and has ANOTHER stronger hurricane just off the EAST coat of FL at the same time. Somehow I don't think that's likely.

One think I can say with confidence, Gustav can still make final landfall anywhere from south of Tampico, MX to the FL Panhandle. All should pay attention to this one. So far, it's a relatively small hurricane. It may stay below average in size (like Lili was) throughout its life. Hard to predict that.

[DESTRUCTION5]

By the way, I'm still sticking with a track west of the NHC to north Mexico/south Texas. No reason to change yet. GLobal models still have quite a ridge over the NE Gulf early next week, with the exception of the GFS (upon which the GFDL is partially based). GFS takes Gustav to just west of south FL next Tuesday night and has ANOTHER stronger hurricane just off the EAST coat of FL at the same time. Somehow I don't think that's likely.

One think I can say with confidence, Gustav can still make final landfall anywhere from south of Tampico, MX to the FL Panhandle. All should pay attention to this one. So far, it's a relatively small hurricane. It may stay below average in size (like Lili was) throughout its life. Hard to predict that.

Did i miss you change from the middle gulf coast?

[wxman57]

By the way, I'm still sticking with a track west of the NHC to north Mexico/south Texas. No reason to change yet. GLobal models still have quite a ridge over the NE Gulf early next week, with the exception of the GFS (upon which the GFDL is partially based). GFS takes Gustav to just west of south FL next Tuesday night and has ANOTHER stronger hurricane just off the EAST coat of FL at the same time. Somehow I don't think that's likely.

One think I can say with confidence, Gustav can still make final landfall anywhere from south of Tampico, MX to the FL Panhandle. All should pay attention to this one. So far, it's a relatively small hurricane. It may stay below average in size (like Lili was) throughout its life. Hard to predict that.

Did i miss you change from the middle gulf coast?

Yep, back to my original track. GFS is the only semi-reliable model to show such a weak ridge across the eastern Gulf. I just don't buy it (the weakness) now.

[Dave C]

That loop covers 1 hr and seems to be almost moving due west in that short term.

[Ivanhater]

By the way, I'm still sticking with a track west of the NHC to north Mexico/south Texas. No reason to change yet. GLobal models still have quite a ridge over the NE Gulf early next week, with the exception of the GFS (upon which the GFDL is partially based). GFS takes Gustav to just west of south FL next Tuesday night and has ANOTHER stronger hurricane just off the EAST coat of FL at the same time. Somehow I don't think that's likely.

One think I can say with confidence, Gustav can still make final landfall anywhere from south of Tampico, MX to the FL Panhandle. All should pay attention to this one. So far, it's a relatively small hurricane. It may stay below average in size (like Lili was) throughout its life. Hard to predict that.

I agree..does it sneak in the weakness or does it fill before it can get in? Though, the model consensus is showing it finding the weakness right now, but of course subject to change..hopefully we will know more tomorrow

[Weatherfreak000]

By the way, I'm still sticking with a track west of the NHC to north Mexico/south Texas. No reason to change yet. GLobal models still have quite a ridge over the NE Gulf early next week, with the exception of the GFS (upon which the GFDL is partially based). GFS takes Gustav to just west of south FL next Tuesday night and has ANOTHER stronger hurricane just off the EAST coat of FL at the same time. Somehow I don't think that's likely.

One think I can say with confidence, Gustav can still make final landfall anywhere from south of Tampico, MX to the FL Panhandle. All should pay attention to this one. So far, it's a relatively small hurricane. It may stay below average in size (like Lili was) throughout its life. Hard to predict that.

I thought the Globals were forecasting a weakness in the Ridge?


NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS...etc...

[DESTRUCTION5]

By the way, I'm still sticking with a track west of the NHC to north Mexico/south Texas. No reason to change yet. GLobal models still have quite a ridge over the NE Gulf early next week, with the exception of the GFS (upon which the GFDL is partially based). GFS takes Gustav to just west of south FL next Tuesday night and has ANOTHER stronger hurricane just off the EAST coat of FL at the same time. Somehow I don't think that's likely.

One think I can say with confidence, Gustav can still make final landfall anywhere from south of Tampico, MX to the FL Panhandle. All should pay attention to this one. So far, it's a relatively small hurricane. It may stay below average in size (like Lili was) throughout its life. Hard to predict that.

Did i miss you change from the middle gulf coast?

Yep, back to my original track. GFS is the only semi-reliable model to show such a weak ridge across the eastern Gulf. I just don't buy it (the weakness) now.

Whats your "black" high resol charts look like now as far as where the GFS weakness is?

[wxman57]

I thought the Globals were forecasting a weakness in the Ridge?


NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS...etc...

NOGAPS had been forecasting Gustav to shoot off to the north across the DR and out into the Atlantic. It's still the farthest east of any model. GFDL uses GFS for initialization, so it's not surprising that the GFDL is right of most other model guidance as well. The consensus models incorporate NOGAPS as one of the members, so many of the consensus models may be skewed too far right - they certainly were yesterday when the consensus was for east of Cuba!