ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[meteorologyman]

What on earth am I looking at, is that a trough or a front connected with Hanna.

[carversteve]

Ok..I just looked at a visible over at wunderground..Is she starting to get her act together again..I am no expert..but sure looks like!.......The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[bstruss]

Living in JAX I'm startinig to get an uneasy feeling
about this situation. Models have her offshore my doorstep in 80-90 hours..some spinning her up to CAT 3.

I am with you! Being just north of you on Amelia Island and still trying to clean up the mess from Fay, I am getting a awful quesy feeling. I was a youngster living on the beach when Dora struck and I don't want to go through that again!

[txwatcher91]

HPC's take. They buy into Euro more.

WHERE THE ECMWF MEANS ARE SHOWING MORE UPPER RIDGE THAN THE GFS.
WE THINK THAT HURRICANE HANNA MAY HELP TO BUILD MORE 500MB RIDGE
TO ITS NE AND E AS IT TRACKS NWD THRU THE E COAST STATES. ONCE
ESTABLISHED... THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL BE SLOWER TO FLATTEN TOWARD
THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THAN SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC
00Z/02 GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

[Frank2]

Looks like Hanna is about to be inpinged by the southern extension of the trough to it's north:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I'll agree that it was getting better organized over the past hour or two, but, it's about to get it's lights knocked out once again...

[cpdaman]

something tells me those bathtub waters are helping her fight the shear

meteorolygman " both fighters seems to be going all out"

when you click "speed up" and loop this aviation visible it starts to look scary IMO

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

So much for the upwelling theory...

I can see the hp building west now and everything seems on track for a SC landfall somewhere IMO.

you catch the latest GFS.......

[gatorcane]

I caught the latest 12Z GFS...west shift again..

[cpdaman]

frank it's gonna be a close call IMO the trough should stop digging very soon

[cpdaman]

anyone care to hazard a guess as to what the minimum pressure recon finds in about an hour?

i say 984

and the 12 z gfs shift has me starting to wonder if this thing is really gonna miss florida

[txwatcher91]

something tells me those bathtub waters are helping her fight the shear

meteorolygman " both fighters seems to be going all out"

when you click "speed up" and loop this aviation visible it starts to look scary IMO

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

So much for the upwelling theory...

I can see the hp building west now and everything seems on track for a SC landfall somewhere IMO.

you catch the latest GFS.......

Yep, landfall further NORTH.
It turns more N instead of NNW like the 06Z showed.
06Z


12Z

[meteorologyman]

988 mb my guess

[Weatherboy1]

not much margin for error here with the part of FL that sticks out the most -- including Palm Beach County, where I live. I'm curious to see what the other models in the current cycle (besides the GFS) show.

[jhpigott]

the current GFS has a "Hurricane David" feel to it

[cpdaman]

txwatcher that's a hair further sw but i think you will catch on

convection continues to expand but looks like the LLC is on the west side of convection still

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[txwatcher91]

txwatcher that's is hair further sw but i think you will catch on

convection continues to expand but looks like the LLC is on the west side of convection still

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

Landfall is further N, look at the images I posted. Don agrees with a SC landfall also.

[gatorcane]

txwatcher that's is hair further sw but i think you will catch on

convection continues to expand but looks like the LLC is on the west side of convection still

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

Landfall is further N, look at the images I posted. Don agrees with a SC landfall also.

That maybe but the angle it comes in along the Florida East Coast is very close...

Based on the 12Z GFS
I estimate its nearest pass puts Hanna within 30 miles of the Palm Beaches......along Florida's SE Coast and it skirts right up the East Coast of FL within 30 miles or closer.

Yesterday at this time we were talking 150 miles.

To me this is pretty significant westward shift.

[cpdaman]

txwatcher i looked at the images

on 6z it shows the center a hair E of st. augistine

on 12z it shows deep red center over jacksonville

but as always models will continue to shift and we should all prepare

stay safe

[jhpigott]

txwatcher that's is hair further sw but i think you will catch on

convection continues to expand but looks like the LLC is on the west side of convection still

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

Landfall is further N, look at the images I posted. Don agrees with a SC landfall also.

yea, but GFS also brings Hanna's closest point of approach to the SE FL coast to like 10-20 miles. A little further west and the whole Mia-Ft Laud-WPB corridor some very unpleasant weather

[ronjon]

yea, but GFS also brings Hanna's closest point of approach to the SE FL coast to like 10-20 miles. A little further west and the whole Mia-Ft Laud-WPB corridor some very unpleasant weather

At 10-20 miles offshore, Mia-Ft Laud-WPB would likely be in the western eyewall.

[txwatcher91]

txwatcher i looked at the images

on 6z it shows the center a hair E of st. augistine

on 12z it shows deep red center over jacksonville

but as always models will continue to shift and we should all prepare

stay safe

The deep red is not the center, look closely.