ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#2921 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:02 pm

dwg71 wrote:HWRF is now south of NHC track. Again, the trend is west, west, west. lets see what euro does, all models shifted significantly west.

as I stated wouldn't surprise me if this ends up a Mexico issue and the US is spared.

KWT · #2922 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:02 pm

Yeah the NHC track really isn't that far away from the GFDL/HWRF in the end though obviously the other models all take it further west earlier in the track.

dwg71 · #2923 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:05 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Still 5 days out so maybe we will be ok if the saying is tru about being at the end of the 5 day track.

Unfortunately for Upper Texas the NHC did a pretty decent job 5 days out with Gustav.
I don't like the looks of this at all.

two different storms with different forecasts. Models consensous was set 5 days out on Central/SE LA. And it was a straight shot. This is a winding track through Cuba and then the gulf.

Jason_B · #2924 Postby **Jason_B** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:05 pm

gatorcane wrote:
dwg71 wrote:HWRF is now south of NHC track. Again, the trend is west, west, west. lets see what euro does, all models shifted significantly west.

as I stated wouldn't surprise me if this ends up a Mexico issue and the US is spared.

If this was July I would agree but it's September, it will eventually find a weakness before going south of Texas.

#2925 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:07 pm

dwg71 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Still 5 days out so maybe we will be ok if the saying is tru about being at the end of the 5 day track.

Unfortunately for Upper Texas the NHC did a pretty decent job 5 days out with Gustav.
I don't like the looks of this at all.

two different storms with different forecasts. Models consensous was set 5 days out on Central/SE LA. And it was a straight shot. This is a winding track through Cuba and then the gulf.

I'm just going by their (NHC) final landfall area track record and not the details as to how it gets there.

#2926 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:09 pm

Let's see - the GFS had been way east and the GFDL, etc., then became eastern outliers. Now the GFS has swung west/south, so then the GFDL and HWRF follow suit. That should be no surprise. If the GFS shifts west again the other two will follow suit again and vice-versa.

I'm still sticking to my forecast from yesterday = Corpus to Sabine Pass. Too early to narrow it down more than that, and no reason yet to change either.

Sabanic · #2927 Postby **Sabanic** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:10 pm

Keeps shifting west Texas isn't even going to see Ike. That would be soemthing wouldn't it??

shah8 · #2928 Postby **shah8** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:11 pm

The critical part of these models is the *speed* of approach. There is not going to be time for fancy dancy evacuation procedures once we have an idea that it's going to verify in the Gulf, especially if it's the HWRF. The time for weakening will also be quite limited.

Now, the HWRF is really bad, not so much for surge into Galveston or Houston, but in that it takes something of a shore crawler approach that impact max number of residences, businesses and resources possible.

Stratosphere747 · #2929 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:11 pm

Sabanic wrote:Keeps shifting west Texas isn't even going to see Ike. That would be soemthing wouldn't it??

Yes it would.

mattpetre · #2930 Postby **mattpetre** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:12 pm

Sabanic wrote:Keeps shifting west Texas isn't even going to see Ike. That would be soemthing wouldn't it??

Would be awesome, but I'm afraid it's becoming pretty unlikely that part of TX won't dislIKE this storm before it's all over. If I'm wrong and it hits MX or further E. than Lafayette, LA then I'll take a hIKE. Still getting a kick out of the TX emergency operations centers use of the word strIKE in their documents... I'm very easy to amuse.

vaffie · #2931 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z run so far

GFS=West
GFDL=West
UKMET=West
HWRF=West

CMC shift west to TX/LA border

sphelps8681 · #2932 Postby **sphelps8681** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:26 pm

I have been off line all day. I work at school not much time to surf throught all posts. Is now going to Galveston. Could someone give me an update of the lastest. If it did hit Galveston would that not be worse for SE TX.

dwg71 · #2933 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:28 pm

Ok, if they shift west again on next runs, we will continue to watch track move west and south. If it jumps back east then we will have to watch to see if it is centering in a consensous.

withou Euro, I would say average would be around CEntral texas coast atm.

Now many discount the GFDL and HWRF until now, so you cant jump on their bandwagon yet :wink:

dwg71 · #2934 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:29 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:I have been off line all day. I work at school not much time to surf throught all posts. Is now going to Galveston. Could someone give me an update of the lastest. If it did hit Galveston would that not be worse for SE TX.

All models trended well west and south, GAlveston is pretty much the eastern end of models at the moment. too early to tell where it will end up. I would rule out east of NOLA at this point.

attallaman · #2935 Postby **attallaman** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:31 pm

With all of these recent posts indicating that Ike will be a TX or TX/LA storm is it safe to say today that the C/GOM region, the SE/LA and the MSGC region are now in the clear from Ike or is there something in the upper atmosphere which could cause the models to shift back towards the E putting my region, the CGOM region under the gun once again?

#2936 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:39 pm

>>With all of these recent posts indicating that Ike will be a TX or TX/LA storm is it safe to say today that the C/GOM region, the SE/LA and the MSGC region are now in the clear from Ike or is there something in the upper atmosphere which could cause the models to shift back towards the E putting my region, the CGOM region under the gun once again?

Read the forecast discussions. Check the maps and charts. Watch the models. JMO

Jason_B · #2937 Postby **Jason_B** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:42 pm

attallaman wrote:With all of these recent posts indicating that Ike will be a TX or TX/LA storm is it safe to say today that the C/GOM region, the SE/LA and the MSGC region are now in the clear from Ike or is there something in the upper atmosphere which could cause the models to shift back towards the E putting my region, the CGOM region under the gun once again?

Remember even a LA/TX landfall is going to have impacts far east of that, but as far as a direct hit is concerned yes it's looking pretty good for areas N.O eastward.

#2938 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:45 pm

12z CMC Loop. Texas/LA Border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

dogblues64 · #2939 Postby **dogblues64** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:46 pm

It's great that everyone is concentrating on the long tern projections, but.. Key West is right in the path and it would be nice to see some concern of a little Island just south of Florida..!!! Thanks Guys!!

ROCK · #2940 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:52 pm

dogblues64 wrote:It's great that everyone is concentrating on the long tern projections, but.. Key West is right in the path and it would be nice to see some concern of a little Island just south of Florida..!!! Thanks Guys!!

huh? Key west is under tropical storm warnings.....did the track shift?

ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Re:

Who is online