ATL: IKE Discussion

[kranki]

I am sending my wife out tomorrow with the visitors. Hopefully, they won't bang her up too bad. I am waiting to see what the predictions are early Sunday to make my decision. Our house is built to the new 150mph standards in 1998 and now of the TD, TS nor hurricanes have bothered too much. I lots of last minute work to get done. Am hoping for further south and west path. Currenly, I sit in the cat 4 zone last AZRainmain post. oh well!

[fci]

Yeah, I'd say it's pretty much cut and dry. That's several consecutive shifts, with more probably coming. I had a hard time believing Ike would get that far SW, but apparently it looks like that will be the case.

I wasn't relishing a Cat. 4 over my head, but I have to admit, this is kind of anticlimactic.

not doubt the complacency factor is going to increase in South Florida assuming it does not affect South FL that much. There was quite a bit of hype from the media...

of course the NHC forecasts were not hyped.

anyway, back to Ike.

Gator:
I can't agree with you.
If Ike had been a marginal storm then I would agree.
Everyone saw the Cat 4 monster strength storm and I doubt that people will criticise the media or NHC for a "false alarm".

Given the same situation again, I expect the same reaction.

We South Floridians breathe a collective sigh of relief.

Of course, if the track were to change drastically now, there would be major freak out.
We enthusiasts will continue to track Ike closely "just to make sure" !

[El Nino]

A hit on NOLA and water coming from the SE, making an enormous storm surge in the Lake
Ok, I know it's one week ahead ..

[thetruesms]

Well, there *IS* Key West to be concerned about, ya know...

Using stormcarib.com's script, closest approach (per NHC track) is ~30 miles. It would take a pretty good shift in the forecast track to keep Key West from seeing significant impacts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

An "XTRP" of the last two forecast points takes it over NOLA, indeed

Some of the older engineers I work with have plastic protractor thing that has straight edges and also some curves of different radius. Might be called a French curve. Not sure. If one sticks that on and draws the last few points in, an exptrapolated curve, which isn't good science either unless the 5 day point is real close to land, would be more towards the Panhandle or Alabama.

[Aristotle]

ColdFusion wrote:
Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

An "XTRP" of the last two forecast points takes it over NOLA, indeed


Of course, this time, very few would leave.

I concur. I think this is a set up for a potential large loss of life and property! Not to mention gas prices!

FCI The problem isn't just that people will not listen and stay although I think thats a bigger effect than you propose. The real problem is the ability to monetarily comply. This is a much bigger problem. Leave job. Spend money traveling, hotels, length of time. All of these pose a particularly big problem

[gulfcoastdave]

Once again , many posters are looking out way to far for this storm and calling out NO....Would be best wait to see where the storm enters into the gulf and what the models show on sunday.

As we wll know , models shift .......look what has just occured today. We all should focus on the next 48-72 hours and then go from there

ps , we could all pray for a sharp ENE turn but that will not happen

[thetruesms]

Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

An "XTRP" of the last two forecast points takes it over NOLA, indeed

That would be a very long segment with no change in direction, though

[Praxus]

Hopefully it will recurve before N.O....that seems to be expected..

[LowndesCoFire]

Hurricane Kate 1985

[Chigger_Lopez]

Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

What's unbelievable is the Gustav did not do as much damage as it could have in NOLA....residents breath a sigh of relief than CAT 4 Ike shows up to finish things off.

Obviously Ike hitting NOLA is not certain but has become a possibility looking at model trends.

I recall some models, when we were all watching Hanna and Gustav unfold, were showing Ike come in and follow Gustav into the NO area. Or was that Hanna when some of the models were showing Hanna going west into florida and then crossing into the Gulf. I remember a 1-2 punch being depicted on NO area. Anyone remember the models that showed this ?

[Sabanic]

Hopefully it will recurve before N.O....that seems to be expected..

Granted we wouldn't want Ike to hit NOLA, but recurve elsewhere like here, P'cola, MGC, Panhandle instead? Nah not really. How about that ENE recurve from his current position?

[Sanibel]

Well, certain things work against the track coming back east. The main one being Gustav's WNW turn into Louisiana perhaps being an indicator of an in place synoptic that sends storms counter to average climatological track. The main reason I risk -removed- it back towards SW Florida is because the models came back with Fay after shifting west of us. The second reason is the slowdown on tuesday and wednesday usually breaks poleward unless a clear feature is causing it. Gustav bee-lined NW under a ridge without slowing at this open water phase in its track. Ike slows in a intensification area meaning we could see a different steering scenario unlike Gustav's straight NW track. Climatology would back this.

Bustcast result would be stronger ridge simply sends it into Gulf.

[duris]

Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

What's unbelievable is the Gustav did not do as much damage as it could have in NOLA....residents breath a sigh of relief than CAT 4 Ike shows up to finish things off.

Obviously Ike hitting NOLA is not certain but has become a possibility looking at model trends.

I recall some models, when we were all watching Hanna and Gustav unfold, were showing Ike come in and follow Gustav into the NO area. Or was that Hanna when some of the models were showing Hanna going west into florida and then crossing into the Gulf. I remember a 1-2 punch being depicted on NO area. Anyone remember the models that showed this ?

I believe the Euro, middle of last week, but my brain is evacuation addled at the moment.

[sprink52]

My Dad lives in Tuscaloosa,Alabama and told me tonight that the south bound traffic on I-20/I-59 was bumper to bumper with Louisiana cars headed home. I can't imagine their shock and frustration if they have to turn around and leave again!!

[Aristotle]

My Dad lives in Tuscaloosa,Alabama and told me tonight that the south bound traffic on I-20/I-59 was bumper to bumper with Louisiana cars headed home. I can't imagine their shock and frustration if they have to turn around and leave again!!

They won't!

[fci]

ColdFusion wrote:
Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

An "XTRP" of the last two forecast points takes it over NOLA, indeed


Of course, this time, very few would leave.

I concur. I think this is a set up for a potential large loss of life and property! Not to mention gas prices!

FCI The problem isn't just that people will not listen and stay although I think thats a bigger effect than you propose. The real problem is the ability to monetarily comply. This is a much bigger problem. Leave job. Spend money traveling, hotels, length of time. All of these pose a particularly big problem

But I don't think that people spent money here.
If a Cat 3/4 is staring us down, I expect the same reaction from residents down here that happened this time. Attentiveness and concern followed by action if a threat comes to fruition.

This "miss" that appears to be occuring has come well enough in advance to not fall under the "chicken little" syndrome.
Now.... if we would have been under a Hurricane Watch or Warning and the money was spent, days taken off, travel etc... and THEN a turn; complacency could come into play.

[jcool]

I-10 westbound through mississippi also packed with louisiana tags headed home today.

[Aristotle]

ColdFusion wrote:
Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

An "XTRP" of the last two forecast points takes it over NOLA, indeed


Of course, this time, very few would leave.

I concur. I think this is a set up for a potential large loss of life and property! Not to mention gas prices!

FCI The problem isn't just that people will not listen and stay although I think thats a bigger effect than you propose. The real problem is the ability to monetarily comply. This is a much bigger problem. Leave job. Spend money traveling, hotels, length of time. All of these pose a particularly big problem

But I don't think that people spent money here.
If a Cat 3/4 is staring us down, I expect the same reaction from residents down here that happened this time. Attentiveness and concern followed by action if a threat comes to fruition.

This "miss" that appears to be occuring has come well enough in advance to not fall under the "chicken little" syndrome.
Now.... if we would have been under a Hurricane Watch or Warning and the money was spent, days taken off, travel etc... and THEN a turn; complacency could come into play.

Again, not a question of complacency, although that will come into play. (My friends dad is going back but said hes not leaving on the next round if it does come. His wife stayed with my friend...said she'll just take a couple weeks and visit.) The problem is economics for most. Especially for poverty line persons. which of course at the most risk! Just my 2 cents!

[Chigger_Lopez]

Pretty strong SW movement right now, in line with models. Did someone not say that the NAM was very good at predicting the strength and location of ridges? I am just a novice, even though I almost get divorced each summer while addictively lurking, but the NAM is way right of guidance right now. BTW, I was just given permission to go travel to landfall to film it Cantore style. My wife gave reasoning of increased life insurance and end of my marriage to Storm2k if Ike takes me out.