ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[carversteve]

Is gus. going to run the length of Haiti?? And if he does,will that not really bring him down quite a bit?

[canegrl04]

Our local NBC met,David Fenfrock has been very accurate giving projections for landfalls from storms this season.This evening he says looks to be anywhere from Galveston to N.O.

[HarlequinBoy]

I'm not sure what the NWS in Jackson, MS is seeing.

THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE OF HURC
GUSTAV THAT IS NOW PROJECTED TO REACH THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL SYSTEM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE NRN GULF MOVING ESE. THIS 2-300MB
TROUGH COULD VERY WELL SERVE TO TURN GUSTAV BEFORE IT CAN PROGRESS
TOO FAR WEST...WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Video--Louisiana Governor gives the forecast! : http://www.wwltv.com/video/news-index.h ... 6349&shu=1

[KWT]

carversteve, its already just moved offshore, looks like motion is close to west now though and probably isn't gaining much latitude at this stage compared with longitude. I don't think it'll strengthen all that rapidly given the amount of the broader circulation and inflow still being onland but this system should steadily improve its apperence ready for a possible stint of RI in about 24hrs time I reckon...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[LSU2001]

Is gus. going to run the length of Haiti?? And if he does,will that not really bring him down quite a bit?

Short answer no!! Gus is already beginning to move off land now. If you meant Cuba then the answer is that it is not forecast to move over cuba it is supposed to move south of cuba into the Gulf as a Cat 3-4.
Tim

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears that it has moved back over water on the northern side. Also it is moving westward around 280 degree's. SMALL EYE.

[Cape Verde]

Is gus. going to run the length of Haiti?? And if he does,will that not really bring him down quite a bit?

I'm not a pro, but frankly if Gustav emerged as a TD, it wouldn't matter. All conditions in front of him are favorable, and it doesn't take long to regenerate. Look at how fast he formed in the first place.

We almost undoubtedly will get some time to debate whether he's a Cat 3 or actually a Cat 4. And that's totally independent of what it looks like later this evening.

[Sean in New Orleans]

FYI...if any of you are interested, tomorrow, Chief Meteorologist Carl Arredondo will be having a live interactive weather chat on http://www.wwltv.com at 2:00PM CST.

[AJC3]

I'm not sure what the NWS in Jackson, MS is seeing.

THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE OF HURC
GUSTAV THAT IS NOW PROJECTED TO REACH THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL SYSTEM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE NRN GULF MOVING ESE. THIS 2-300MB
TROUGH COULD VERY WELL SERVE TO TURN GUSTAV BEFORE IT CAN PROGRESS
TOO FAR WEST...WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

Odd comment indeed. A 300-200mb trough wouldn't turn a TC, it would only impart shear. If the feature had more subtantial vertical depth to around 500mb or so, then it could - but not a shallow UL feature like that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on radar the most important part is now over water. It has a clear eye...I expect a restrengthing now. It is very impressive looking at how small the innercore of this system is.

[O Town]

Video--Louisiana Governor gives the forecast! : http://www.wwltv.com/video/news-index.h ... 6349&shu=1

I heard most of what he said, but I couldn't stop watching the gentlemen that was signing and the expressions on his face. lol. It always seems to distract me even when its our governor speaking.
I sure hope that doesn't pan out for LA. Its going to be a long week.....again.

[carversteve]

carversteve, its already just moved offshore, looks like motion is close to west now though and probably isn't gaining much latitude at this stage compared with longitude. I don't think it'll strengthen all that rapidly given the amount of the broader circulation and inflow still being onland but this system should steadily improve its apperence ready for a possible stint of RI in about 24hrs time I reckon...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks!!

[cycloneye]

The 8 PM Advisory mantains Gustav as a hurricane at 75 mph.

[canegrl04]

I am very worried for N.O.This could be deja Vu .But from N.O. to Galveston needs to watch this very carefully

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think Gustav is earning himself a good retirement tonight over Hati..Gotta be some major issues going on there now.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye, not surprising as the sysem is starting to perk up again looking at the radar, IR also showing the eye though its not ultra defined as you'd probably expect given its been over pretty mountionus land just recently.

Matt, yep tiny little inner core, will have to watch for RI as it looks highly possible that will occur in this set-up. I think we will have to wait for the eye to not have land directly south of it before we see any real strengthening occuring, for now its just preping itself.

I think we are going to see the big one this season now...just hope this is the only one that risks land...

[Sirius LeWindy]

I'm not sure what the NWS in Jackson, MS is seeing.

THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE OF HURC
GUSTAV THAT IS NOW PROJECTED TO REACH THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL SYSTEM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE NRN GULF MOVING ESE. THIS 2-300MB
TROUGH COULD VERY WELL SERVE TO TURN GUSTAV BEFORE IT CAN PROGRESS
TOO FAR WEST...WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

A high is pegged to move over CFL stearing the storm on a general NW path once into the GOM. Timing, like always, is everything.

[KWT]

I think Gustav is earning himself a good retirement tonight over Hati..Gotta be some major issues going on there now.

I really hope not but there was big convective bursts whilst this was overland and there is probably still some decent rains over there and given Fay wet the ground a lot I've got a bad feeling about this system having caused some big issues for that part of Haiti.

[AJC3]

If the last few frames of the Gran Piedra radar are accurate, the interaction beteen Gustav's eye and the SW Haitian peninsula is far from over. While I'd need some more frames and a few more VDM fixes to confirm, it appears that Gustav may have turned due west now. The north coast there actually runs a wee bit northward as one heads west, so I suspect Gus is not done banging his noggen off of Haiti just yet.