ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[angelwing]

Am i looking at this right, it will hit the Philly/NJ area this weekend? I want to deny this so bad, tell me it's not..my first weekend off since 9/95 and we're supposed to go down the shore...should I cancel my plans?

[cpdaman]

tropical storm watches / hurricane watches may be posted at 11pm for east coast florida

wether it is 15 or 25 miles off the coast, that is MUCH to close to brush off in anyway

Was this in the NHC discussion or is it your opinion?

completely and only my opinion (mabye 11 am wed) but should the 12 Z gfs has continuity one would think it would be a no-brainer sooner or later

also look at the feeder bands hitting the DR and cuba

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... axw01a.gif

[hial2]

Am i looking at this right, it will hit the Philly/NJ area this weekend? I want to deny this so bad, tell me it's not..my first weekend off since 9/95 and we're supposed to go down the shore...should I cancel my plans?

Your first weekend off in 13 YEARS??...You are a person of integrity

[BensonTCwatcher]

that trough is filling in some and the ridge continues to build west. The ULL is retrograding and the shear is highly divergent thus not killing the convection near term. Keep in mind that the low is strong(we will see how strong soon when recon gets to the center. Once the large anticyclone from Gustav breaks down (as Gus and the front combine over the midwest) Hanna may be able to form her own anti-cyclone aloft. If not, the shear shoudl continue to decline from here on out. Still a lot of if's on intensity before landfall. We won't know any of that really for another couple of days. Right now I feel confident in a HC brush with FL and a Carolinas landfall north of Charleston. I hope we keep unfavorable conditions by some means in place as the ridge builds west.

[dixiebreeze]

Gov. Crist just declared a State of Emergency for Florida in response to Hanna. The latest track seems to take her closer to the Fla. east coast.

[cpdaman]

the microwave imagery defintely showed a deterioration in the banding structure that hanna had between last nite and 8am , however recent trends via satelite may show a come back

but alas recon is flying on her outer west side right now so we shall see soon enough

[Wthrman13]

It looks like the deformation axis that NHC mentioned stops just to the NW of the center, and is slowly starting to move back W, which is allowing the outflow to try to expand again in the NW quadrant. Indeed, you can see the leftover outflow cirrus from last night start that was moving SE now starting to move back NW ahead of the new push of outflow from the new burst of convection. If this continues, and the models have been showing it happening for at least a couple days now, then Hanna could find herself very quickly underneath a very favorable outflow pattern.

[gatorcane]

It looks like the deformation axis that NHC mentioned stops just to the NW of the center, and is slowly starting to move back W, which is allowing the outflow to try to expand again in the NW quadrant. Indeed, you can see the leftover outflow cirrus from last night start that was moving SE now starting to move back NW ahead of the new push of outflow from the new burst of convection. If this continues, and the models have been showing it happening for at least a couple days now, then Hanna could find herself very quickly underneath a very favorable outflow pattern.

that's just great

[Frank2]

Yipes - folks, before you start packing those suitcases (and hat cases, as Forrest Gump would say), notice that the trough north of Hanna is still spilling southward (note the top of the photo), so, very likely that the system will still be under considerable northerly shear for at least the near future:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Am i looking at this right, it will hit the Philly/NJ area this weekend? I want to deny this so bad, tell me it's not..my first weekend off since 9/95 and we're supposed to go down the shore...should I cancel my plans?

I'm not a pro, but models suggest Hanna is moving pretty fast. Some models still show tropical storm force winds in the Atlantic as far North as the Jersey shore, but the rain should last under 12 hours Saturday, and Sunday looks decent, with offshore winds. Latest GFS actually shows most rain inland from coast, so even Saturday might not be a wasted beach day.

I wouldn't cancel yet, but keep an eye out in case Hanna shifts a bit further East, or gets stronger than expected.


Remember, I'm an amateur.

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps shifts further S and W. Landfall near SE Florida.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=060

[CrazyC83]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008 ... 353758.htm

10 deaths reported in Haiti. Gonaives almost entirely under water.

[gtsmith]

It looks like the deformation axis that NHC mentioned stops just to the NW of the center, and is slowly starting to move back W, which is allowing the outflow to try to expand again in the NW quadrant. Indeed, you can see the leftover outflow cirrus from last night start that was moving SE now starting to move back NW ahead of the new push of outflow from the new burst of convection. If this continues, and the models have been showing it happening for at least a couple days now, then Hanna could find herself very quickly underneath a very favorable outflow pattern.

that's just great

sorry gator...i laughed out loud at that and now mu colleagues think I'm nuts

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yipes - folks, before you start packing those suitcases (and hat cases, as Forrest Gump would say), notice that the trough north of Hanna is still spilling southward (note the top of the photo), so, very likely that the system will still be under considerable northerly shear for at least the near future:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Frank...Ok maybe you were ill last week when Gus went from a TS to a CAt 4 in 24hrs...what the storm looks like now has nothing to do with what it will look like Thurs morning...When a TC has 90 Degree water under it wishful thinking just doesnt work...

Ohh BTW Still waiting to see if the Clipper takes Gus Out to Sea..LOL

[cpdaman]

one thing i just thought i would mention is that the convectionless NW side of hanna gives the illusion she is smaller and further away from cuba and florida than it looks

and should the outflow improve as the Pro met just mentioned the possibility of we could see hanna's coverage expand quite rapidly

[meteorologyman]

Shear and trough vs Hanna.....continue.

Oh boy here we go the shear is going for the upper cut manuever. ooooohh that's goota hurt Hanna. geeze that shear continues to upper cut her working towards the eye. Oh boy here we go the shear jumping on Hanna and down she goes oh here goes the 10 count. 10,9,8,7 wait a sec here she's wiggling out.6,5,4,3,2 unbelievable she got out wait a minute it just reversed Hanna is now on piece of the punching the lights out of the shear on the ground and the 10 count starts over 10,9,8,7 wait a sec what's this where did he come from, a trough is moving in to assist the shear what an amazing event, Hanna is taking another beating. HOLY COW Haana just grabbed the trough and flipped it over. Hanna is showing no mercy She is blossoming just like she did yesterday. here comes the ref (airplane recon) to check out the situation as hanna continue to show domination. My goodness that shear is getting poverized wait a minute that looks like K.O for the shear unbelievable what a monster Hanna is and look at that it looks like Ike wants part of it too. boy she looks mad and wait a minute....... why is she looking at us like that?? Oh my..... she's turning her attention to the crowd..... somebody get a hold of her, she's a wild bull
too be continue
Hanna vs EC

[fci]

Yipes - folks, before you start packing those suitcases (and hat cases, as Forrest Gump would say), notice that the trough north of Hanna is still spilling southward (note the top of the photo), so, very likely that the system will still be under considerable northerly shear for at least the near future:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Darn it Frank!!!

Pack.
Unpack.
Pack
and Unpack again.

Please make up your mind!!

Seriously, the shear, Gustav outflow and ridges have made Hanna another "Fay" when it comes to the NHC, Pros and us amatuers all helpless in predicting what is going to happen.

Gov. Crist declared a State of Emergency????
A little premature perhaps?

Anyway, I am kidding about the packing part, in case any of you believed me!!!


It is just wait and see about Hanna................and Ike...............and Josephine.............. and Kyle (oops, got ahead of myself)

[BensonTCwatcher]

the flow from the trof is NE. The shear is DIVERGENT and to the S and SE. This could quickly evelove to ventilate the system in 2 or more quadrants, which may be occurring given the convective burst. Have to see if it continues.

[Vortex]

12 Z Nogaps right over southern florida.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008090212

[Frank2]

First, Destruction5 - per TWC on Gustav, "Even if Gulf water is 90 degrees it doesn't matter if shear is present"...

And, dixiebreeze - I checked CNN and FOX and none mention Gov. Crist stating anything of the sort - can you tell us where you heard this statement?

Thanks

P.S. Guess my wishful thinking is in contrast to the many here who seem to wish for a natural disaster - hard to understand that, considering the many here (including myself) who have been victims of them, and, know what kind of suffering that is...