ATL: IKE Discussion

[duris]

Looks like NOLA will be in the cone by tomorrow morning, if the trend in that direction continues, and if a CAT4, evacs would have to begin Tuesday morning.

It's mind numbing. Though we understand the uncertainty of the cone this far out, we use it for our disaster recovery planning. One thing we discussed is making hotel reservations once we are in the 5 day cone. At this rate...and we just returned today from Memphis. Memphis is OK, but not looking forward to going back. Right now, anything in LA would be bad. Almost every parish was affected by Gustav. Not to mention the MS Gulf Coast, which got much worse than NO in some places.

[Aristotle]

Man, He is diving HARD right now. Looks like DR is gonna not have fun!

[Sanibel]

Outer bands seen on Puerto Rico Long Range Radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[cheezyWXguy]

Man, He is diving HARD right now. Looks like DR is gonna not have fun!

I dont know what you are looking at...seems to be moving almost directly west based on all loops ive seen. Everyone, I think you should watch for a strengthening storm tomorrow. Based on the increase in outflow over the northern half of the storm, shear is definitely decreasing over the storm. Tomorrow will be very interesting, and sunday as well...

[alienstorm]

If you look at the GFS for 00Z it looks like the High in the Atlantic bridges with the High in the Gulf, we are only out to 42 hours approaching the NE coast of Cuba.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[El Nino]

Outer bands seen on Puerto Rico Long Range Radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

It just shows the SW motion we're talking about, but I don't think it will continue like this.

[Canelaw99]

Pretty strong SW movement right now, in line with models. Did someone not say that the NAM was very good at predicting the strength and location of ridges? I am just a novice, even though I almost get divorced each summer while addictively lurking, but the NAM is way right of guidance right now. BTW, I was just given permission to go travel to landfall to film it Cantore style. My wife gave reasoning of increased life insurance and end of my marriage to Storm2k if Ike takes me out.

My husband has threatened to throw my laptop in the lake because I'm always on here when it's summer, especially when a storm is around.

[fci]

Pretty strong SW movement right now, in line with models. Did someone not say that the NAM was very good at predicting the strength and location of ridges? I am just a novice, even though I almost get divorced each summer while addictively lurking, but the NAM is way right of guidance right now. BTW, I was just given permission to go travel to landfall to film it Cantore style. My wife gave reasoning of increased life insurance and end of my marriage to Storm2k if Ike takes me out.

My husband has threatened to throw my laptop in the lake because I'm always on here when it's summer, especially when a storm is around.

Well, take a break tomorrow night and watch my Gators spank The Canes!!!

[thetruesms]

Man, He is diving HARD right now. Looks like DR is gonna not have fun!

I dont know what you are looking at...seems to be moving almost directly west based on all loops ive seen. Everyone, I think you should watch for a strengthening storm tomorrow. Based on the increase in outflow over the northern half of the storm, shear is definitely decreasing over the storm. Tomorrow will be very interesting, and sunday as well...

While it was definitely moving just south of west earlier this evening, it's had a pretty solid WSW motion the last couple hours, and nailed its 03Z point

[gatorcane]

GFS 00 UTC run just in, landfall Eastern Cuba at 54 hours and further SW at 60 hours.

What is going on?

I'm thinking the Yucatan may be the next spot the models go to

[Aristotle]

Man, He is diving HARD right now. Looks like DR is gonna not have fun!

I dont know what you are looking at...seems to be moving almost directly west based on all loops ive seen. Everyone, I think you should watch for a strengthening storm tomorrow. Based on the increase in outflow over the northern half of the storm, shear is definitely decreasing over the storm. Tomorrow will be very interesting, and sunday as well...

I'm certainly no pro. But the current WV loop from NHC Atlantic wide view supports my conclusion. Am I wrong?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Sanibel]

NHC should go even more left at 5am. I've done my job. I think we are getting closer to being in the clear.

This is why I kept saying watch GFDL all day yesterday. I'm giving myself credit for that. My reasoning appears to be correct about GFDL nailing the SW dip outliers in 2008.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Yeah the GFDL showed this dive several days ago....and it looks to be verifying...

[TTheriot1975]

So...is Texas out of the way on this one? What are westerlies..sorry if I dont know..I have seen this set up before..the high is holding and a track to Brownsville..then lo an behold...Houston...then BMT/PA...2005...remember that storm?

[shah8]

GFDL is not verifying.

Something is verified by the actual track, and not by a newer model. 18z gfdl is still missing to the south of actual points.

[cheezyWXguy]

Man, He is diving HARD right now. Looks like DR is gonna not have fun!

I dont know what you are looking at...seems to be moving almost directly west based on all loops ive seen. Everyone, I think you should watch for a strengthening storm tomorrow. Based on the increase in outflow over the northern half of the storm, shear is definitely decreasing over the storm. Tomorrow will be very interesting, and sunday as well...

I'm certainly no pro. But the current WV loop from NHC Atlantic wide view supports my conclusion. Am I wrong?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

You are using the broadest possible map with the worst type of imagery to determine movement, so its easy to be misled. That massive sw motion you see is the brief collapse of some convection in the northern semicircle of the storm. It is building back, and if you pay attention to the frames where the eye is visible, then the motion of wsw is pretty clear. Its not a hard sw, but its a little more pronounced than I originally thought.

[Aristotle]

I'm certainly no pro. But the current WV loop from NHC Atlantic wide view supports my conclusion. Am I wrong?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html[/quote]
You are using the broadest possible map with the worst type of imagery to determine movement, so its easy to be misled. That massive sw motion you see is the brief collapse of some convection in the northern semicircle of the storm. It is building back, and if you pay attention to the frames where the eye is visible, then the motion of just south of due west is pretty clear.[/quote]

Kewl, Thanks for the tip. So I should use close up IR imagery with the lat and lon on. Correct?

[Chigger_Lopez]

[quote="Sanibel"]NHC should go even more left at 5am. I've done my job. I think we are getting closer to being in the clear.

This is why I kept saying watch GFDL all day yesterday. I'm giving myself credit for that. My reasoning appears to be correct about GFDL nailing the SW dip outliers in 2008.

Remember when GFDL nailed the SW dip Katrina made thru SF into the Glades. Only model to predict such a crazy move. GFDL sure does know how to call SW.

[crm6360]

If this hits Cuba, and this is becoming more likely with the model trends, the bigger question will then turn to the synoptics in the Gulf. Gustav was only over Cuba for a few hours and never recovered because of the relatively unfavorable regime right up until final landfall.

Bottom line: assuming Ike is impacted by Cuba, the question is whether or not it will have a favorable environment waiting for it as it emerges into the Gulf.

[mvtrucking]

Is it me, or is the shear really affecting Ike at this hour?