ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[rtd2]

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi (was TX LA Border)
CMC=Texas/LA Border (was Central La)
GFDL=SE Texas(Was Central La)
HWRF=SE Texas (was Central LA)
NOGAPS=SE Texas (was Central LA)
EURO=Central,SE Texas (was TX LA Border)
UKMET=Corpus Christi (was Central TX)

best i could do from memory, comparing 6z

Right now Im leaning to South Texas..the trough progression just looks like its not going to be enough to break the ridge down very much...good news for the north gulfcoast from Houston to Pensacola for sure!

sounds good!.....2 weekends in a row for GOOD weather? to good to be true but I'll take it!

[Wx_Warrior]

I don't consider Galveston SETX, but others not living here consider it.

[jasons2k]

Here is the breakdown of the Texas Coast:
Upper TX Coast - Includes Sabine, Galveston, Freeport
Middle TX Coast - Includes Matagorda, Port O'Connor, Rockport, Port Aransas
Lower TX Coast - Includes Corpus Christi, Baffin Bay, Port Mansfield, South Padre Island

------------------

Also, "SE Texas" includes the Houston metro area. And "North Texas" does not refer to the Upper Texas Coast. "North Texas" is centered on the DFW Metroplex and is totally landlocked.

[Steve]

>>But, really, we feel like a nother part of the world and you guys are confirming it!

You guys declare your independence every year, so you'll have to live with those consequences from those of us here on the mainland.



Steve

[Jason_B]

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi (was TX LA Border)
CMC=Texas/LA Border (was Central La)
GFDL=SE Texas(Was Central La)
HWRF=SE Texas (was Central LA)
NOGAPS=SE Texas (was Central LA)
EURO=Central,SE Texas (was TX LA Border)
UKMET=Corpus Christi (was Central TX)

best i could do from memory, comparing 6z

Right now Im leaning to South Texas..the trough progression just looks like its not going to be enough to break the ridge down very much...good news for the north gulfcoast from Houston to Pensacola for sure!

Houston is in the clear? What models you looking at?

[artist]

To be honest.. all the mapping doesn't mean a whole lot.. we are feeling almost the winds already of Gustav.. put that in your models.. LOL! just kidding guys.. But, really, we feel like a nother part of the world and you guys are confirming it!

I'm with ya in spirit! (saw some guy there in a hammock on the beach earlier on tv)

[Ivanhater]

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi (was TX LA Border)
CMC=Texas/LA Border (was Central La)
GFDL=SE Texas(Was Central La)
HWRF=SE Texas (was Central LA)
NOGAPS=SE Texas (was Central LA)
EURO=Central,SE Texas (was TX LA Border)
UKMET=Corpus Christi (was Central TX)

best i could do from memory, comparing 6z

Right now Im leaning to South Texas..the trough progression just looks like its not going to be enough to break the ridge down very much...good news for the north gulfcoast from Houston to Pensacola for sure!

Houston is in the clear? What models you looking at?

Where did I say Houston was in the clear? DWG and myself have been saying The trend has been further and further west. The only models showing Houston are the ones that have been too far north the entire life if Ike...the ones that have been doing well are south Texas, so that is good news..no reason at this point to think the models that have been shifting west will stop at Houston, which is of course good news

[gboudx]

Where did I say Houston was in the clear? DWG and myself have been saying The trend has been further and further west. The only models showing Houston are the ones that have been too far north the entire life if Ike...the ones that have been doing well are south Texas, so that is good news..no reason at this point to think the models that have been shifting west will stop at Houston, which is of course good news

One thing jeff(lidner) said in the conference call is that Gulf storms typically run right of their forecasted paths. I don't know where he got that from, or how accurate it is. But he said if the models trended more south to the mid-Tx coast, and the right of forecast path is true, then.....well.....Hou/Galv are in worse shape.

[Sabanic]

Summary of 12z Global Models:

GFS=Corpus Christi (was TX LA Border)
CMC=Texas/LA Border (was Central La)
GFDL=SE Texas(Was Central La)
HWRF=SE Texas (was Central LA)
NOGAPS=SE Texas (was Central LA)
EURO=Central,SE Texas (was TX LA Border)
UKMET=Corpus Christi (was Central TX)

best i could do from memory, comparing 6z

Right now Im leaning to South Texas..the trough progression just looks like its not going to be enough to break the ridge down very much...good news for the north gulfcoast from Houston to Pensacola for sure!

Houston is in the clear? What models you looking at?

Kind of like what good is a cone ???

NEWSFLASH ! LA/TX border eastward all clear. That is sure the impression given here even with a straightforward track and forecast, that the NHC still say they do not know where landfall will occur along the gulf coast.

Am I going nuts here ?

[GeneratorPower]

I'm kinda surprised that people are now issuing evac orders and states of emergency based upon extrapolations of a 5-day track. Not a good idea.

Sabanic, you are not going nuts.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm kinda surprised that people are now issuing evac orders and states of emergency based upon extrapolations of a 5-day track. Not a good idea.

Sabanic, you are not going nuts.

True, but if this is a Carla like storm at final landfall you may be looking at the largest Hurricane evacuation in U.S. History. Atleast a good 1-2 million people and that's a conservative estimate. Takes time if people will be possibly fleeing Corpus to to LA coast..

[gboudx]

I'm kinda surprised that people are now issuing evac orders and states of emergency based upon extrapolations of a 5-day track. Not a good idea.

Sabanic, you are not going nuts.

Lidner mentioned that evac orders would probably be as early as Wed. Govenor Perry issued a disaster declaration for many counties in Tx. Why do you think this is not a good idea?

[sunnyday]

We need to pray for the people in Cuba, in the Keys, and in Texas or wherever landfall will be. Mainland Florida has been passed again when we were in the direct path, supposedly, on Thursday night. Why we have been so fortunate in the past several years, I don't know, but we we need to count our blessings and feel for those whose lives are about to be upset, to say the least..

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS would sure make for an interesting situation up here in Oklahoma this upcoming Sunday!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

Talk about TONS of rain and wind! This could become a very interesting event.

[haml8]

I'm kinda surprised that people are now issuing evac orders and states of emergency based upon extrapolations of a 5-day track. Not a good idea.

Sabanic, you are not going nuts.

Lidner mentioned that evac orders would probably be as early as Wed. Govenor Perry issued a disaster declaration for many counties in Tx. Why do you think this is not a good idea?

I guess then that using the logic sometimes found on this board that the Govenors of LA and TX are people I disagree with...

[jasons2k]

RE: the NHC "uncertainty"

I'm beginning to wonder if people read a single word Air Force Met writes...and I'll just leave it at that.

[southerngale]

I'm kinda surprised that people are now issuing evac orders and states of emergency based upon extrapolations of a 5-day track. Not a good idea.

Sabanic, you are not going nuts.

Lidner mentioned that evac orders would probably be as early as Wed. Govenor Perry issued a disaster declaration for many counties in Tx. Why do you think this is not a good idea?

You have to wonder. With the majority of the models pointed toward Texas, I'm extremely nervous. I am fully aware that Ike could go elsewhere or he could make landfall weaker than expected. As it stands now, the models are scattered across Texas and the official forecast track points in my general direction. I really don't understand people from all over the place giving all clear for certain areas, good news for Houston eastwards, etc. Please. Let this thread be for discussion of the models and what they're saying. Some people are concerned, and rightfully so. I'm sick of all the snippy comments toward one another, almost like some people NOT in Texas are upset it could be headed for Texas. Huh? What has this become? We should be sharing model info, encouraging those in the path, etc. This isn't fun. This isn't a game.

[haml8]

RE: the NHC "uncertainty"

I'm beginning to wonder if people read a single word Air Force Met writes...and I'll just leave it at that.

I was thinking the same thing... I would like to hear more from him on the timing of the north turn that the models are showing.

[gatorcane]

I'm kinda surprised that people are now issuing evac orders and states of emergency based upon extrapolations of a 5-day track. Not a good idea.

Sabanic, you are not going nuts.

Lidner mentioned that evac orders would probably be as early as Wed. Govenor Perry issued a disaster declaration for many counties in Tx. Why do you think this is not a good idea?

You have to wonder. With the majority of the models pointed toward Texas, I'm extremely nervous. I am fully aware that Ike could go elsewhere or he could make landfall weaker than expected. As it stands now, the models are scattered across Texas and the official forecast track points in my general direction. I really don't understand people from all over the place giving all clear for certain areas, good news for Houston eastwards, etc. Please. Let this thread be for discussion of the models and what they're saying. Some people are concerned, and rightfully so. I'm sick of all the snippy comments toward one another, almost like some people NOT in Texas are upset it could be headed for Texas. Huh? What has this become? We should be sharing model info, encouraging those in the path, etc. This isn't fun. This isn't a game.

At one point 6 big models (yeah I counted them) including UKMET, GFDL, and GFS showed SE Florida as the bullseye for Ike about 5 days out. Look what happened, models kept shifting away from Florida and Southern Florida just barely was in the 3 day cone (for about one advisory)...That said, if Texas is lucky, Ike will pass quietly by and not affect you. It seems Ike is thoroughly confusing the models

[Nederlander]

I'm kinda surprised that people are now issuing evac orders and states of emergency based upon extrapolations of a 5-day track. Not a good idea.

Sabanic, you are not going nuts.

Lidner mentioned that evac orders would probably be as early as Wed. Govenor Perry issued a disaster declaration for many counties in Tx. Why do you think this is not a good idea?

You have to wonder. With the majority of the models pointed toward Texas, I'm extremely nervous. I am fully aware that Ike could go elsewhere or he could make landfall weaker than expected. As it stands now, the models are scattered across Texas and the official forecast track points in my general direction. I really don't understand people from all over the place giving all clear for certain areas, good news for Houston eastwards, etc. Please. Let this thread be for discussion of the models and what they're saying. Some people are concerned, and rightfully so. I'm sick of all the snippy comments toward one another, almost like some people NOT in Texas are upset it could be headed for Texas. Huh? What has this become? We should be sharing model info, encouraging those in the path, etc. This isn't fun. This isn't a game.

couldnt have said it better myself... sounds like some people that live outside of texas, are mad that its headed here?? ill send it overnight to whoever wants it though