ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Hanna ramping up again folks, definitely a relentless storm in the face of high shear.

IMO, it seems the channel is pretty clear where Hanna will go. You can see the ridge is building W, it's just a matter of timing the longer Hanna takes to get moving N the more W she may come.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don't think recon has plotted a center yet given thier position. We'll have to see.

[Trader Ron]

Gal on WJNO said Hanna is located near Nassau.

Hmmmmm.....

Depends on your definition of near!!!

It's 375 miles as the crow flies. Not close IMO.

[gatorcane]

I think I see a slow westward drift commencing...anybody else see it?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Jinkers]

I think I see a slow westward drift commencing...anybody else see it?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Yea, I see it.

[RL3AO]

The center is 40 to 50 miles southeast of the 11am position.

[cpdaman]

wow this thing is far south

appears recon to come across center near 20.6 i.e 20'37 isn't that like 35- miles north of DR?

how far does UKMET show this getting southwise

[fci]

Hanna ramping up again folks, definitely a relentless storm in the face of high shear.

IMO, it seems the channel is pretty clear where Hanna will go. You can see the ridge is building W, it's just a matter of timing the longer Hanna takes to get moving N the more W she may come.

If she somehow goes to the channel between Haiti and Cuba then it is probably game over for the Florida East Coast.
Wouldn't that be a shocker!

[Lowpressure]

I think I see a slow westward drift commencing...anybody else see it?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Hard to tell if it is a drift or CDO trying to re-establish itself with a bit of relaxed shear.

[cpdaman]

very near n. DR coast

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... axw01a.gif

bad news for them.....but if this trend south continues hanna could have more land interaction with cuba and DR....but that is speculation and not forecast by the NHC

[gatorcane]

Latest 2pm EST advisory now mentions "the FL peninsula"

This is certainly a new phrase in the NHC discussion of Hanna. The NHC is noting the west trend in the models I guess.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

[Bocadude85]

The center is 40 to 50 miles southeast of the 11am position.

wonder if that would mean a track further east of the bahamas and florida

[jrod]

With the pressure at 984mb after all it went through today I am afraid this storm could get very nasty fast if the shear relaxes enough. This is going to be one interesting week for me here in Jacksonville.

[Bane]

it also says she is drifting southeastward, not west or southwest.

[fci]

Latest 2pm EST advisory now mentions "the FL peninsula"

This is certainly a new phrase in the NHC discussion of Hanna. The NHC is noting the west trend in the models I guess.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

Since the 5 PM Monday the advisories have indicated The Florida Peninsula.
It is nothing new.

[gatorcane]

Latest 2pm EST advisory now mentions "the FL peninsula"

This is certainly a new phrase in the NHC discussion of Hanna. The NHC is noting the west trend in the models I guess.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

I believe that the last several advisories have indicated The Peninsula.

yes you are right I just checked the 8AM advisory and the same wording...

[Vortex]

The Euro all last week had Hanna in the exact position it currently is..It was relentless for days in developing the storm from this point on and for many runs in a row brought the storm across southern florida. My concern this afternoon is the ridge is building in to the north and shear values will continue to drop. It would make complete sense to see Hanna move across the central bahamas and to a position along the central/southern coast of florida.

[cpdaman]

i think the center tucked into the convection to the SE

[N2Storms]

[quote="Vortex"]The Euro all last week had Hanna in the exact position it currently is..It was relentless for days in developing the storm from this point on and for many runs in a row brought the storm across southern florida. My concern this afternoon is the ridge is building in to the north and shear values will continue to drop. It would make complete sense to see Hanna move across the central bahamas and to a position along the central/southern coast of florida.[/quote]


Last week if I'm not mistaken the Euro was showing a run over S. FL then into the GOM with a landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River...

[AJC3]

The center is 40 to 50 miles southeast of the 11am position.

wonder if that would mean a track further east of the bahamas and florida

The fact that the 12Z GFS...point by point...was about a degree south of the 06Z run actually brought Hanna closer to the SE and central FL coast...which our young friend Gatorcane pointed out. The track wasn't farther west *at each forecast time*...it was farther south...however the net overall result winds up being farther west early on in the track.

I'm going to rephrase here...not only was the recent recon fix farther south of the 15Z advisory position...it was east as well...so being SE overall...the next effect might be nil overall as it is likely in the throes of a cyclonic loop.


Sheared systems are a bear to forecast.
Stationary systems are also a bear to forecast.

A sheared AND stationary system? arghhh.