TC Bertha

[NDG]

not sure wether i'm seeing things but is the centre trying to pull a little west than the projected path?

Yeah, Bertha was supposed to cross 55W at 23.2N, looks like she will be crossing it near 22.8N instead.

[CrazyC83]

I agree that it should continue to weaken for another 12 hours or so, then I sense an opportunity for re-strengthening. Shear is decreasing and heat content will be increasing.

[Derek Ortt]

The NOAA Nesdis SSD floater won't update past 0945Z.

then use this page

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[RL3AO]

If it weakens more rapidly than projected, could that cause a more wnw path?

[gatorcane]

she seems to be taking ajog more WNW this afternoon.

[CrazyC83]

If it weakens more rapidly than projected, could that cause a more wnw path?

That's possible if it can beat the ridge there.

Given its small size, I would think fluctuations in intensity will continue to be rapid. Should Bertha get back into a warm low-shear environment later today/tomorrow, I can easily see her regain almost all (if not all) her lost intensity.

[Thunder44]

she seems to be taking ajog more WNW this afternoon.

The ridge building back to her north again, so she might take a more westerly course, temporarily. Shear will also be decreasing, so she may a comeback this evening.

[CrazyC83]

she seems to be taking ajog more WNW this afternoon.

The ridge building back to her north again, so she might take a more westerly course, temporarily. Shear will also be decreasing, so she may a comeback this evening.

I know this is not the official forecast, but if she makes a comeback, I could see her rapidly intensifying once again.

[brunota2003]

Hmm...is there a satellite outage that I'm not aware of?

[KWT]

Hmmm doesn't look like Bertha has weakened any more in the last couple of hours and so probably holding steady around 70-75kts I guess.

Also the weakening probably will lead to a slightly more WNW track then was suggested but I think there is certainly a chance for a secondary peak once it gets past this shear, which is starting to decrease around it slowly and heat content still looks more then high enough to get this stronger.

[alan1961]

its not over until the fat lady sings..or in Bertha's case..the slimmed down version

[senorpepr]

Hmm...is there a satellite outage that I'm not aware of?

What are you talking about?

[Ed Mahmoud]

The NOAA Nesdis SSD floater won't update past 0945Z.

then use this page

http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

Sweet.

[KWT]

Indeed Alan, convection has increased quite well near the center again in the last few hours as well which may be a sign that the shear is just starting easing off.

[HarlequinBoy]

I still think she looks cool on satellite.

[brunota2003]

Hmm...is there a satellite outage that I'm not aware of?

What are you talking about?

Look at the time stamp and pic on the floaters (everything but vis and ir)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

09:45 UTC? And it still has an eye?

[tolakram]

Who doesn't like extreme closeups!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... .100pc.jpg

[KWT]

Woah tolakram yep thats a real close up isn't it!
I suspect that until shear eases off its going to keep that apperence and struggle to get any stronger then it is right now.

[OuterBanker]

Anyone tell me why the large lag time (almost 10 hrs) between latest sat pics and loop on NHC site?

[HURAKAN]