ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[BensonTCwatcher]

so she will loop after all instead of the "V" to the W. Expect an east shift in models in the near term. Want to see the next few runs about teh 3-5 day track.

[OuterBanker]

Very interesting, 2pm now has Hanna with just short of landfall in north Fl, then sharp north turn.

[Grease Monkey]

wonder if that would mean a track further east of the bahamas and florida

I would think so or because she continues to drift south, it may give it more time for the new ridge to build in further causing her to move more west then NW like I believe one of the mets here mentioned last night.

[Bocadude85]

perhaps she loops back to the west then nw? any promets know what to make of her apparent SE movement and wether this means further east long term or wether the 12z runs are still good, despite this movement

i did see a met say the longer she is in the bahamas the further west she would go

[HURAKAN]

Yes because the more time it allows the ridge to build.

[Trader Ron]

Crown weather has a 58 mph wind swath from The Cape to Jax a/o 11 AM.

[expat2carib]

Hanna in the Turks and Caicos Isl.





http://www.stormcarib.com

[bucman1]

This past sat ,(i believe)the UKM had this hitting south florida and moving up the west coast,not that I'm saying it will do that,
but someone said the Nogaps 12z run just showed the same thing,can anyone verify that?

[Blown Away]

Yes because the more time it allows the ridge to build.

Watching the satellite loops you can see that big ridge pushing in from the NE.

[artist]

Hanna in the Turks and Caicos Isl.

Oh my! That is not good.

[Decomdoug]

496
WTNT33 KNHC 021756
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

HANNA HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY.

002
WTNT23 KNHC 021453
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT



In the words of the late Lloyd Bridges in the movie Airplane, "Looks like I picked a bad day to give up drinking" LOL

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Now that the GFDL is the right outlier showing Hanna within 110 miles of WPB and NOGAPS is the left outlier showing a direct WPB hit with HWRF annd GFS both within 50 miles of the coast I would fully expect the middle of the cone to be just off the WPB coast and a hurricane watch for this portion of S.Fla by 11:00PM tonight as tommorrow would be needed for preperations for a thursday hit. The Euro is the only model left to be heard from.

[Aristotle]

It looks as if the shearing effects of Gus are at an end. He's had is thumb on her for some time. With that ridge moving in quite quickly for the NE, it seems Hanna Montana maybe be visiting Florida sooner than expected. I'm still thinking that Hanna is gonna help really soften up Ike. Any takers on that?

[ExBailbonds]

Step away from the floater and have a look at the bigger picture and see what gator and others are talking abought. The ridge is coming down pretty fast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Aristotle]

Is that ridge gonna shear Hanna?

[cpdaman]

It looks as if the shearing effects of Gus are at an end. He's had is thumb on her for some time. With that ridge moving in quite quickly for the NE, it seems Hanna Montana maybe be visiting Florida sooner than expected. I'm still thinking that Hanna is gonna help really soften up Ike. Any takers on that?

i don't know aristotle, it may help ike gain some latitude in the medium term, but perhaps just enough to cause him to not slip under s.f l could be a lose-lose in s fla

[NEXRAD]

Possible Florida Impacts...

Just an FYI. Based on the current TPC/NHC official forecast and the model spread, tropical storm conditions will be a real possibility for Florida coastal counties north of Fort Lauderdale with Hanna, barring that the storm doesn't do something very unexpected (like dissipate). Generally areas east of a line from about Key Largo to Lake Okeechobbee to Orlando to vicinity of Gainesville are most prone to have some impact from this system if it follows close to the guidance envelope or the NHC track.

This said, I anticipate a TS Storm Watch going up for parts of East Florida by the 5AM Wednesday advisory.

- Jay

[Trader Ron]

Now that the GFDL is the right outlier showing Hanna within 110 miles of WPB and NOGAPS is the left outlier showing a direct WPB hit with HWRF annd GFS both within 50 miles of the coast I would fully expect the middle of the cone to be just off the WPB coast and a hurricane watch for this portion of S.Fla by 11:00PM tonight as tommorrow would be needed for preperations for a thursday hit. The Euro is the only model left to be heard from.

A question.

Why would they put up a hurricane watch at 11:00 PM, when a lot of people are in bed.

They would wake up to a hurricane watch. Doesn't make sense, but what do I know.

[Blown Away]

Is that ridge gonna shear Hanna?

Bump!

Good question, I want to know that.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Now that the GFDL is the right outlier showing Hanna within 110 miles of WPB and NOGAPS is the left outlier showing a direct WPB hit with HWRF annd GFS both within 50 miles of the coast I would fully expect the middle of the cone to be just off the WPB coast and a hurricane watch for this portion of S.Fla by 11:00PM tonight as tommorrow would be needed for preperations for a thursday hit. The Euro is the only model left to be heard from.

A question.

Why would they put up a hurricane watch at 11:00 PM, when a lot of people are in bed.

They would wake up to a hurricane watch. Doesn't make sense, but what do I know.

Because they would know the next morning so they could plan their day.