ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[caneman]

For the record since thus debate was started again. NOt all Floridians are wishing for a storm this way or are insensitive to Texans. I own 2 businesses that would be devastated if it came my way.. Some Floridians such as myself got upset with the hype by some Texas member calling a storm some 10 days out and relying on only one model to support to that conclsuion furthered with faulty assumptions and no back up facts. Had I done that, I wouldn't have needed to worry about out of staters, the Floridians would have taken care of me and fed me to the Wolves. So, please Texans take care of your own when that happens. Admin, if you want to ban me for that. Go for it. My opinion but I suspect many outside of Texas may share the same. Good day.

[Air Force Met]

I realize the big Texas metro areas need a lot of time to prepare to get everyone out in the event of a major cane...but this is just too early because they are causing a lot of people to panic and it may be for nothing. You know what happens when people are asked to leave time and again and nothing happens? They get complacent and will stop evacuating when things seem to be headed in their direction. Is that the correct action to take? NO! Is it human nature? YES.

I don't know where Ike will go...what I do know is that it is way too early to tell....

Too early? You have no idea what you are talking about. You can't even comprehend the task of EOM officials...so unless you are one...don't even try.

Lets leave it at that.

[rtd2]

This is what I think is straightforward...the models YESTERDAY did not pick up on the track Ike would take...what in God's beautiful green earth makes everyone think they are picking up on a landfall 5-6 days out? That is why it is not a good idea to make evac orders and declare states of emergency when we are so far from landfall. And didn't the Texas Gov. declare states of emergency for Texas really early for Gustav? Did Texas receive a drop of rain from Gustav?

I don't know where Ike will go...what I do know is that it is too early to tell....

Unfortunately you do not know of which you speak ... "states of emergency" in this case really are disaster proclamations. They are made because a state governor cannot use federal resources without first declaring a disaster proclamation. The federal resources (i.e. military, etc.) are used to help a state prepare for a potential disaster. That is why they are declared 4-5-6 days in advance. And yes, portions of southeast Texas did get some rain from Gustav.

Then I suppose the whole coast of the GOM should declare states of emergency because the NHC has already said, TODAY, that they don't know where Ike is going or which portion of the GOM will be impacted.

that could get expensive FAST since they are likely to reimburse those who evacuated gustav.

[Portastorm]

Post deleted

[srainhoutx]

I realize the big Texas metro areas need a lot of time to prepare to get everyone out in the event of a major cane...but this is just too early because they are causing a lot of people to panic and it may be for nothing. You know what happens when people are asked to leave time and again and nothing happens? They get complacent and will stop evacuating when things seem to be headed in their direction. Is that the correct action to take? NO! Is it human nature? YES.

I don't know where Ike will go...what I do know is that it is way too early to tell....

Too early? You have no idea what you are talking about. You can't even comprehend the task of EOM officials...so unless you are one...don't even try.

Lets leave it at that.

Thank You. Goodness.

[smw1981]

[quote="Steve"]>>I'm sick of all the snippy comments toward one another, almost like some people NOT in Texas are upset it could be headed for Texas.

For me personally, it really doesn't matter where Ike hits. I live in north Alabama...about 300 miles from the coast. The reason I keep posting on this board is because I am on the outside looking in. It's like seeing a good friend in a relationship with a huge jerk that she thinks is just wonderful. But because you are on the outside, you see things a little clearer.

From the outside, I see a lot of people getting ready to panic for something that may not affect them at all. It is too early to tell where Ike is going, that is my only point (and the only point I have been trying to make for the past 2 days).

So I don't think people who are not in Texas are mad because Ike is not coming their way, I think it is more that we (those of us not in Texas) realize that things can (and almost definitely will) change, so it just seems too early to be getting worked up..

[sphelps8681]

Please Texas posters, lets not respond to comments as the ones above. It's a waste of time. Besides I do not want to scroll through pages of comments that doesn't give any insight to the the potential problem at hand.

[txag2005]

As a resident SE of Houston near Galveston, I have to say that I praise Gov. Perry and Gov. Jindal for their fast actions. I see nothing wrong with taking early action. This is especially true in the case of the Houston metro area. If we are still looking to have a high possibility of being directly affected by this storm, there will be millions of people trying to get out of town. Therefore, city officials know they must begin making decisions early to avoid another Rita situation with thousands stuck on the freeway.

All this bickering is pointless and not necessary. Instead, how about we thank all of the meteorologists at the NHC and elsewhere across the country, including here on storm2k and our government & emergency personal for the time being put in to ensure the citizens affected will be protected.

[smw1981]

post deleted

[caneman]

>>I'm sick of all the snippy comments toward one another, almost like some people NOT in Texas are upset it could be headed for Texas.

For me personally, it really doesn't matter where Ike hits. I live in north Alabama...about 300 miles from the coast. The reason I keep posting on this board is because I am on the outside looking in. It's like seeing a good friend in a relationship with a huge jerk that she thinks is just wonderful. But because you are on the outside, you see things a little clearer.

From the outside, I see a lot of people getting ready to panic for something that may not affect them at all. It is too early to tell where Ike is going, that is my only point (and the only point I have been trying to make for the past 2 days).

So I don't think people who are not in Texas are mad because Ike is not coming their way, I think it is more that we (those of us not in Texas) realize that things can (and almost definitely will) change, so it just seems too early to be getting worked up..

Very well stated. We get many many many false alarms in Florida. Sometimes even just a day out. For Floridians concerns starts within 5 days, worrying begins in the and down right alarm within 2 days and honestly folks I bet most Floridians would agree that action take is in a 24-48 hour time frame. We;ve seen the false alarms by Gustav and Hanna. Suppose to be majors, affect this area of Florida, no that area of Florida, et al.. We know the game. land interaction, systems never getting as strong as forecasted. So, please Texans lets be calm and we'll be here to help you thru it. Be ready to take action inside of 3 days. Be aready to go at 2 days. Take care.

[artist]

This is what I think is straightforward...the models YESTERDAY did not pick up on the track Ike would take...what in God's beautiful green earth makes everyone think they are picking up on a landfall 5-6 days out? That is why it is not a good idea to make evac orders and declare states of emergency when we are so far from landfall. And didn't the Texas Gov. declare states of emergency for Texas really early for Gustav? Did Texas receive a drop of rain from Gustav?

I don't know where Ike will go...what I do know is that it is too early to tell....

Unfortunately you do not know of which you speak ... "states of emergency" in this case really are disaster proclamations. They are made because a state governor cannot use federal resources without first declaring a disaster proclamation. The federal resources (i.e. military, etc.) are used to help a state prepare for a potential disaster. That is why they are declared 4-5-6 days in advance. And yes, portions of southeast Texas did get some rain from Gustav.

Then I suppose the whole coast of the GOM should declare states of emergency because the NHC has already said, TODAY, that they don't know where Ike is going or which portion of the GOM will be impacted.

This is just me, but I really think they meant where it will go on the west central coast. I think that because that is where their 5 day cone is.

[Sabanic]

It is going to be very interesting to see when the turn northward actually occurs later this week. As I have mentioned quite a few models are showing it offshore now which would bring Ike into NE/TX and LA. Wouldn't need to happen much earlier to make landfall happen in central to SE/LA.

That is why everyone along the GC needs to watch Ike carefully

[Steve]

Understood smw. That makes sense to me. I know 5-6 days out in the tropics is a lifetime. No way would I make a close-in landfall call on this storm this far out no matter what the pros or NHC say. What I did say was that I was leaning 75 miles either side of the TX/LA border with some weight further south in Texas if anything. That doesn't mean I'll be right. What it means to me is that I'd probably grab some extra water and (non)perishables and things like batteries and such that will be progressively harder to get in the days ahead. I always do that. That's one of the reasons I follow the tropics on the internet instead of tv news or the weather channel. I want to know so that I'm not caught in the long lines 95% of the rest of "the area" has to endure. Screw that. I wouldn't panic 5 days out, but I would probably consider replenishing things I need and getting some things in order that I won't have to fool with later. In the wake of Gustav, what I can tell you is that I utilized my power being turned back on yesterday to wash all the clothes that had stacked up (me and my 3 kids) and refuse to unpack my suitcases just in case. No panic here though. Also, can't fault the Governors for being proactive. We learned a lot about FEMA and DHS during Katrina/Rita/Wilma and they aren't that much better now. Local and state authorities, however, have learned their lessons.

Of interest to me is the fact that the 12-18z runs shown on SFWMD are now pretty far inland into Texas. Having spent one day at Lake Austin, one day at Hamilton Pool and one day at Barton Springs - Austin needs rain. I missed going to the Greenbelt because it's been too dry. My peeps over there say there was something like 70 days > 100 degrees this summer and it is bone dry.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

/obligatory back to discussion link

Steve

[Stormcenter]

Understood smw. That makes sense to me. I know 5-6 days out in the tropics is a lifetime. No way would I make a close-in landfall call on this storm this far out no matter what the pros or NHC say. What I did say was that I was leaning 75 miles either side of the TX/LA border with some weight further south in Texas if anything. That doesn't mean I'll be right. What it means to me is that I'd probably grab some extra water and (non)perishables and things like batteries and such that will be progressively harder to get in the days ahead. I always do that. That's one of the reasons I follow the tropics on the internet instead of tv news or the weather channel. I want to know so that I'm not caught in the long lines 95% of the rest of "the area" has to endure. Screw that. I wouldn't panic 5 days out, but I would probably consider replenishing things I need and getting some things in order that I won't have to fool with later. In the wake of Gustav, what I can tell you is that I utilized my power being turned back on yesterday to wash all the clothes that had stacked up (me and my 3 kids) and refuse to unpack my suitcases just in case. No panic here though. Also, can't fault the Governors for being proactive. We learned a lot about FEMA and DHS during Katrina/Rita/Wilma and they aren't that much better now. Local and state authorities, however, have learned their lessons.

Of interest to me is the fact that the 12-18z runs shown on SFWMD are now pretty far inland into Texas. Having spent one day at Lake Austin, one day at Hamilton Pool and one day at Barton Springs - Austin needs rain. I missed going to the Greenbelt because it's been too dry. My peeps over there say there was something like 70 days > 100 degrees this summer and it is bone dry.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

/obligatory back to discussion link

Steve

It's actually less then 5 days out now and the NHC has a pretty good track record lately.
But I believe anyone in the cone should keep a close eye on Ike until he is long gone.

[Stormcenter]

It is going to be very interesting to see when the turn northward actually occurs later this week. As I have mentioned quite a few models are showing it offshore now which would bring Ike into NE/TX and LA. Wouldn't need to happen much earlier to make landfall happen in central to SE/LA.

That is why everyone along the GC needs to watch Ike carefully

Or maybe even Mobile, AL. I'm sorry I couldn't resist.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Stormcenter"][quote="Steve"]Understood smw. That makes sense to me. I know 5-6 days out in the tropics is a lifetime. No way would I make a close-in landfall call on this storm this far out no matter what the pros or NHC say. What I did say was that I was leaning 75 miles either side of the TX/LA border with some weight further south in Texas if anything. That doesn't mean I'll be right. What it means to me is that I'd probably grab some extra water and (non)perishables and things like batteries and such that will be progressively harder to get in the days ahead. I always do that. That's one of the reasons I follow the tropics on the internet instead of tv news or the weather channel. I want to know so that I'm not caught in the long lines 95% of the rest of "the area" has to endure. Screw that. I wouldn't panic 5 days out, but I would probably consider replenishing things I need and getting some things in order that I won't have to fool with later. In the wake of Gustav, what I can tell you is that I utilized my power being turned back on yesterday to wash all the clothes that had stacked up (me and my 3 kids) and refuse to unpack my suitcases [i]just in case[/i]. No panic here though. Also, can't fault the Governors for being proactive. We learned a lot about FEMA and DHS during Katrina/Rita/Wilma and they aren't that much better now. Local and state authorities, however, have learned their lessons.

Of interest to me is the fact that the 12-18z runs shown on SFWMD are now pretty far inland into Texas. Having spent one day at Lake Austin, one day at Hamilton Pool and one day at Barton Springs - Austin needs rain. I missed going to the Greenbelt because it's been too dry. My peeps over there say there was something like 70 days > 100 degrees this summer and it is bone dry.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

/obligatory back to discussion link

Steve[/quote]
It's actually less then 5 days out now and the NHC has a pretty good track record lately.
But I believe anyone in the cone should keep a close eye on Ike until he is long gone.[/quote]



It does look like they are getting a little more confident in their reasoning and projected path...it's going to be an interesting next couple of days for the Texans and SW Louisianans...I always had a feeling that the GOMEX was going to experience at least ONE memorable storm this year and it looks like Ike may be the Big One...let's hope not...still plenty of time but right now from where I'm sittin' it doesn't look all that great for you guys...

[Storm Contractor]

I do not know why it is so difficult for anyone to understand that EOM officials have such an incredible task! Why is it that people do not understand how much time it takes to Evac an area. Case in point there were people from NOLA that spent 15 hours to make a 4 hour drive to the Panhandle to Evac Gustav. Sure the models can be wrong! Sure the cone will change! BUT TODAY, RIGHT NOW the information says it will hit a LARGE population and those preps take days NOT HOURS! Not 5 days ago the forecast LINE not the cone the line was 80 miles inland over Ft Myers area. Now the same storm is over Houston....5 days from now! The EOM directors MUST start now because the REASONABLE PROBABILITY of the information at hand is saying that is the place of landfall. What ever happened to agreeable disagreements. If you think the EOM is jumping the gun fine but if you had even a tiny idea of what goes into a storm prep for an area the size of Houston/Galvaston you would know that 5 days is not really enough time. Sure it could be a false alarm. The storm might go to Mexico or SW LA or even a 2% that it could hit Tampa. The fact is at this moment Houston is under the "highest probability and they MUST prepare!

[PTrackerLA]

I'm sorry but was Gustav not memorable? Estimated $10 billion damages, 1.5 million without power in LA after the storm is enough for an entire season. Let's just hope Ike pulls an Isidore and never gets it act together again. Eagerly awaiting the next GFS run to see if the southward trend continues.

[vaffie]

I'm sorry but was Gustav not memorable? Estimated $10 billion damages, 1.5 million without power in LA after the storm is enough for an entire season. Let's just hope Ike pulls an Isidore and never gets it act together again. Eagerly awaiting the next GFS run to see if the southward trend continues.

Keep in mind that the new data isn't fed into the models until the 0Z run, which we won't see until 11 pm tonight.

[caneman]

I do not know why it is so difficult for anyone to understand that EOM officials have such an incredible task! Why is it that people do not understand how much time it takes to Evac an area. Case in point there were people from NOLA that spent 15 hours to make a 4 hour drive to the Panhandle to Evac Gustav. Sure the models can be wrong! Sure the cone will change! BUT TODAY, RIGHT NOW the information says it will hit a LARGE population and those preps take days NOT HOURS! Not 5 days ago the forecast LINE not the cone the line was 80 miles inland over Ft Myers area. Now the same storm is over Houston....5 days from now! The EOM directors MUST start now because the REASONABLE PROBABILITY of the information at hand is saying that is the place of landfall. What ever happened to agreeable disagreements. If you think the EOM is jumping the gun fine but if you had even a tiny idea of what goes into a storm prep for an area the size of Houston/Galvaston you would know that 5 days is not really enough time. Sure it could be a false alarm. The storm might go to Mexico or SW LA or even a 2% that it could hit Tampa. The fact is at this moment Houston is under the "highest probability and they MUST prepare!

There is always going to be compacency bewcause of that though. that is just a fact. You get people geared up moved out, disrupt their lives. They don't want to do it again. Trust me I know a little something about this. Human nature can't be changed but everytime you evacuate, sound an alarm, et.al and nothing happens, there becomes a desensitation to the message. Human nature.