ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Portastorm]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the State of Texas is now activated Emergency plans for a major hurricane.

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 082608.pdf

Also I saw that Texas is going into H-120 mode. That was posted by Scotta on KHOU.com. I'm not exactly sure what H-120 is. Does anybody?

Prolly 120 hours?

H-120 hours means that there are 120 hours before tropical storm conditions reach some portion of the Texas coastline. H, of course, meaning when those tropical storm conditions hit the coastline.

Sorry I would have posted sooner but was at the kids' back to school night. It was a nice respite from Gustav.

[tolakram]

Looks like Gustav might have run between the larger mountains.

[crazycajuncane]

I stopped to gas up on my way home tonight as I was on empty and I saw the shine of red gas cans lined up at two pumps. You know it's hurricane prep time when you see the gas cans!

[Wx_Warrior]

Good analysis wxman...Always appreciated on pro work...Just spoke with a colleague at Corpus Caller-Times newspaper and he said they are starting to worry. They don't like the way the models are trending with still 6+ days out.

[Toyota Thundra]

I thought he was beginning to move W? Wha happen?

[HurryKane]

I stopped to gas up on my way home tonight as I was on empty and I saw the shine of red gas cans lined up at two pumps. You know it's hurricane prep time when you see the gas cans!

Luckily I prepped my gas cans when Fay was bouncing around

[Sanibel]

Close enough to be the eye and 305 or so across Haiti. Close enough to NHC track to use trop points as reference. Should be spinning up again tomorrow when we all anxiously hit our on buttons on our computers first thing in the morning.

[twister]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

By the presentation of this sat imagery, Gus is already well on his way back to his prior LF strength. JMHO.
Current Trop. pts I hope will change to more of a westerly movement.

[Portastorm]

And for the record, as of this morning the State of Texas was planning on hitting that "H minus 120 hour" clock at 1 a.m. Thursday. That was based on the speed of Gustav this morning. That may change tomorrow morning depending on what ol' Gus does.

[Wx_Warrior]

Guessing is always fun....too bad we have a LONG way to go.

[LSU2001]

What is the NGFDL? Is that a new and improved GFDL? As a side note, looks like it has come down to NO or Houston...who will "win out" so to speak? I guess my prediction of Mississippi looks pretty bogus now.

I doubt it will be NO or Houston. Probably a LA or TX storm, but probably not either of those cities directly......

BTW, stating that MS ( or even points East) are out of the woods is very premature.......we're 7 days out and the error in track could be hundreds of miles.

I agree, the odds of that happening are very slim, however if it threatens to come anywhere remotely close to either of those major metro areas as a major hurricane (as predicted) then you could expect mass scale evacuations.

And anybody from the Beaumont/Port Arthur area knows what happens when Houston gets evacuated to later have the rest of SETX get evacuated too.

Looking at the latest track direction and speed it appears to have about a 18 hr window to ramp up and show improvements before land interaction could become a problem for further development once again. Lets see what Gustav does, always seems like from 3am-10am CST is prime time for intensification from my observations.

Like I said before there is going to still be much uncertainty even when this reaches western Cuba / or enters the GOM everybody along the gulf coast should be watching this!

I think you can rest assured that everyone on the GC from TX to FLA. will be watching this one closely. If you acted on plans this far out you might as well move to Nebraska like the cartoons say during hurricane season. LOL
Tim

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I thought he was beginning to move W? Wha happen?

They weeble, they wobble, they go off course, they don't listen to us, they go one way when they should go another, they have a mind of their own!

[cpdaman]

in miami the NOAA discussion is calling for building easterly flow late thursday thru early next week, thank you mr. high pressure , so long as you don't steer 95l this way

[BatzVI]

Don't know if this belongs in this thread, but what is this huge blob moving south toward Puerto Rico...we've had a lot of lightning and thunder, not much rain, but cycloneye, looks like you/we might get hammered tonight....is this part of Gustav, or something that has broken off?

[cpdaman]

Don't know if this belongs in this thread, but what is this huge blob moving south toward Puerto Rico...we've had a lot of lightning and thunder, not much rain, but cycloneye, looks like you/we might get hammered tonight....is this part of Gustav, or something that has broken off?

the ULL dropping south (north of puerto rico) is causing some shear enhanced t-storms, this actually may be the area the NHC has a yellow box in .....yup

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

that ULL sure is dropping south, maybe he could slide west and hand a bit of NE shear out

[BatzVI]

Thanks....seems like it has definitely built up through the evening....stay safe all...

[Sean in New Orleans]

I filled up my car tonight, but, only did it because I know probably by tomorrow or Thursday the prices will be a dime higher due to the storm!

[cpdaman]

lol what a joke...that couldn't have been serious ( i wasn't )

relating to the last comment the ULL will probably in fact ventilate our boy gustav (at least that is what the forecast says, and i see no reason to go against that)

[cycloneye]

Don't know if this belongs in this thread, but what is this huge blob moving south toward Puerto Rico...we've had a lot of lightning and thunder, not much rain, but cycloneye, looks like you/we might get hammered tonight....is this part of Gustav, or something that has broken off?

Here is the radar that shows that ball of rain north of us.I dont think its related to Gustav but from an upper trough.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

Don't know if this belongs in this thread, but what is this huge blob moving south toward Puerto Rico...we've had a lot of lightning and thunder, not much rain, but cycloneye, looks like you/we might get hammered tonight....is this part of Gustav, or something that has broken off?

Here is the radar that shows that ball of rain north of us.I dont think its related to Gustav but from an upper trough.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

yup it's the yellow box north of puerto rico