ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cpdaman]

BTW any pro's know what the longer term forecast is for the ULL dropping south (north of puerto rico)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

is it supposed to turn west and stay north of gustav , i have seen ULL's throw more wrenches in forecasts than i can remember

[HouTXmetro]

Is this moving as planned? I didn't think it would spend this much time near the Peninsula.

[BatzVI]

I was just kind of confused because looking at this wv image, the ULL is north of the blob...guess it's pushing it down....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

Whatever it is, I hope it goes by fast.......

[cpdaman]

Wxman you have any thoughts/concerns about the movement of the ULL through the end of the week

[Derek Ortt]

it is moving almost exactly as I expected it to

[Frank P]

Is this moving as planned? I didn't think it would spend this much time near the Peninsula.

Looks basically on track from the IR... also looks a little beat up as it appears from the last couple of frames in this IR loop that is has lost some of its deep convection near the center.... should get it back together once over water.. which looks like that is in progress atm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[twister]

I filled up my car tonight, but, only did it because I know probably by tomorrow or Thursday the prices will be a dime higher due to the storm!

LOL! I topped of both vehicles and filled four 6.6 gal tanks for generators. I'd like to fill the gen tanks and go refill the empties while price hasn't increased. On the other hand, if Gus takes a hike, siphon fuel back into empties.

[wxman57]

Wxman you have any thoughts/concerns about the movement of the ULL through the end of the week

With the ridge over FL and the Bahamas, the upper low stays east of the Bahamas and loops around north of the DR and PR through the next 6-7 days.

[Over my head]

Looks like Gustav might have run between the larger mountains.

Are you plotting these points, Mark? If you are I sure do appreciate it. If not, I'd love to have the link to where it is.
I'm trying to keep stuff in a hurricane folder on my browser's links when you guys post good pictures or links so I don't have to ask for it again and worry you guys or go back thirty pages to try and find something so I can show my daughter.

I have my truck full and gas cans will be tomorrow. Already got other preps in place from Eduard but in case this looks like we need to NOT be around for Gus I would love to be able to evacuate the day before the mandatory evac if we get one. I did for RITA and made my trip so much better than my sisters who waited until the next day. So I am watching this like a hawk.

[rockyman]

New 5 day forecast out:

outlook valid 31/0000z 23.0n 86.0w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.

Outlook valid 01/0000z 26.5n 89.5w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.

Previous 5 day forecast (5pm):
96hr VT 30/1800z 22.5n 85.0w 105 kt
120hr VT 31/1800z 25.5n 88.5w 105 kt

[wxman57]

Oops, never mind..

[Just Joshing You]

Gustav DG'ED

[dwg71]

New NHC track MUCH farther south at day 5 - 26.5N/89.5W - south of Corpus Christi.

huh? looks to just be an extension.

[rockyman]

[txag2005]

Hmm..wonder what the odds are of a Houston landfall. it looks like the models keep going more and more west.

[gatorcane]

New NHC track MUCH farther south at day 5 - 26.5N/89.5W - south of Corpus Christi.

huh? looks to just be an extension.

edit for Wxman

[wxman57]

New NHC track MUCH farther south at day 5 - 26.5N/89.5W - south of Corpus Christi.

huh? looks to just be an extension.

Oops, never mind. For some reason I was thinking they dropped down to 26.5N/94.5W

Time for bed.

[Frank P]

Oops, never mind..

delete out of respect for wxman57 as I know he must be tired and is going to stay tired for the next week...

[LSU2001]

Same here for Wxman57
Tim

[twister]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

A previous poster mentioned the blob over PR, and what effect it might have on Gustav. If Gus does absorb that blob, would *BOOM* be the word for it? Thanks.

Edited to add just learned Gus is now a TS. A strong TS.