ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Probably waiting for the recon fix.

[Aristotle]

Jay,
Once again thanks. Your really giving me the ability to get a better picture of whats occurring, in addition to giving me stuff to reference as I research. Thanks

So While it looks like Gus is feeding Hanna in actuality the airflow between the trough and the ridge is ventilating Hanna at the same time it works to shear it? Interesting seems like a double edge sword.

thanks

[gatorcane]

they don't mention Florida in this advisory, maybe a good sign?

[AdamFirst]

5PM track has shifted east. Again.

[Raebie]

She's looking healthier...seems the shear is abating abit.

[KWT]

Yeah, convection blowing up still on the eastern side and now pretty much over Haiti, I do hope the rains there aren't too severe given that area has had several tropical cyclones over the last couple of weeks.

[UpTheCreek]

Im live i Beaufort, Sc and it seems the bullseye has been me for the past 3days and im leaving tommmrow for evacuation.... I hate to say it but i truely think that the current forcast of a big impact of my town will be holding true of a landfalling CAT 2 hurricane...around Savannah, Ga or Hilton Head, SC.

Well, according to 5pm NHC track, you're a bullseye. I thought it was going to be further westward on this advisory?

[lbvbl]

5PM track has shifted east. Again.

The landfall spot has moved east, but it looks like it brings the storm closer to FL as it heads NW

[gatorcane]

5PM track has shifted east. Again.

doesn't look like any shift at all here, they left it unchanged.

[NEXRAD]

5PM track has shifted east. Again.

Not really. It's shifted east by about 25 miles, for instance, for the 72 hour position. That's not much a change at all.

- Jay

[cycloneye]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The discussion was strange. They never mention that the models have shifted west at 48 hours closer to the florida penisula. They don't even mention the models at all. Their new cone is unchanged and definitely on the right side of the guidance.

[KWT]

Yeah its a very small shift east, not enough to really mean much at all and as the discussion stated a small shift in the track will make a big difference to possible landfall site...if it doesn't get away from Haiti then we may see our first landfall sooner than thought!

[NOLA 30N90W]

I honestly do not see hanna making up the east coast of fla with those high pressure systems about to merge. I can see an extended period of stall, with a gradual movement to the w, or wsw, then a turn to the wnw and then nw up the fla peninsula, or up the west coast of fla. I think the models are having a very dificult time with initialization. I think ike has an excellent chance to be a fish though, after hanna creates a weakness. I just don't see the current forecast paths for both of these storms, holding up after today. I think there may be some dramatic shifts in the models tonight and early tomorrow with both.

Just my opinion and are not an official forecast.

[NEXRAD]

they don't mention Florida in this advisory, maybe a good sign?

"IN FACT...THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS" (TPC 5PM advisory, 9/2/08, Hanna).

As many of us (and the TPC) have emphasized for the last day or so, it's really just too close a call to say that Hanna is or is not going to affect any one particular part of the SE US.

- Jay

[Evil Jeremy]

5PM track has shifted east. Again.

You can't say again, because the trend has been westward for the past 2 advisories. In addition to that, the new track moved a little bit westward for now, but the 3 day point is a little bit more east.

[NEXRAD]

The discussion was strange. They never mention that the models have shifted west at 48 hours closer to the florida penisula. They don't even mention the models at all. Their new cone is unchanged and definitely on the right side of the guidance.

It's better from a forecast perspective to keep continuity with previous forecasts than to jump on a new slew of models unless there's very good reason for the jump. With Hanna not making much progress and with the future patterns still not that clear, I'd not make much a track shift myself if I were forecasting the storm.

- Jay

[gatorcane]

they don't mention Florida in this advisory, maybe a good sign?

"IN FACT...THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS" (TPC 5PM advisory, 9/2/08, Hanna).

As many of us (and the TPC) have emphasized for the last day or so, it's really just too close a call to say that Hanna is or is not going to affect any one particular part of the SE US.

- Jay

But now it reads:

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

instead of

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

[SeaBrz_FL]

... The biggest fear is that Hanna makes landfall in a similar place to where Fay stalled, given the flooding issues even a fairly quick moving system like Hanna is forecasted to be once it does head NW, there could be some bad flooding.

You're absolutely right, KWT. Brevard County (Space Coast) was overwhelmed by Fay rain, and many places flooded that have never had floods in documented history. The official rain total for my town, Cape Canaveral, was 22.89 inches, and Melbourne was close to 30 inches. Unfortunately, even without any significant rain for the past week, our ground is still very soggy, and the rivers and canals are up to the banks and seawalls. Most of Brevard does not have dikes or flood dams so there is no way to control the water. But it's not only the Brevard coast that is endangered by more rain, the St John's River is at or has already exceeded flood stage throughout Central Florida and it continues to rise.

I just got home from Home Depot and bought two boxes of sandbags and some "visqueen", but the shelves were almost wiped out. Everyone in the store was talking about the upcoming storms, but most were just concerned about the additional rainfall and not really the winds or landfall point. The bottom line for us, with a storm the size of Hanna, even if she took a due-north path right now to New York or goes NW (even worse), we still have a lot of rain in our future over the next week.

And since I don't post much, I still read and find the regular posters' comments very informative and comforting (well, most of the time ) so a big THANKS to all of you!

Clair

[NEXRAD]

they don't mention Florida in this advisory, maybe a good sign?

"IN FACT...THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS" (TPC 5PM advisory, 9/2/08, Hanna).

As many of us (and the TPC) have emphasized for the last day or so, it's really just too close a call to say that Hanna is or is not going to affect any one particular part of the SE US.

- Jay

But now it reads:

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

instead of

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

Seems better word choice with their updated version. Afterall, South Carolina and Georgia are not Florida, but Florida (and Georgia and South Carolina) are all part of the Southeast. It's a better blanket-statement.

Jay