TC Bertha

[cpdaman]

ok appears i can finally use visible to get a center fix on bertha

as of 1345Z she is at 24.2 N 57.3 W and looking quite mean might i add

note this thing will probably undergo IMO rapid intensification and then weakening and then stalling and then who knows what

[Chacor]

Newest forecast has been issued. Initial 65 kts, maxes out at 75 kts.

[Sanibel]

You can see two surface "feeder bands" (not really feeder bands but inflow) extend south into the tropics all the way to South America from Bertha. This probably explains its resilience. I think Bertha is feeling the edge of the High above it which probably makes a better upper overhead environment leading to the warm-top better organization. If this was August we would probably have a much fiercer hurricane.

Not a true "fist" this time because you won't see intensification follow.

[SkyDragon]

[KWT]

Looking better at last, eye has really emerged and at least it should be easier to track again!
Seems like 65kts is reasonable for now though slow strengthening probably is occuring as of now.

[Sanibel]

It has the illusion of a west turn doesn't it?

[dixiebreeze]

It has the illusion of a west turn doesn't it?

Re: the 11 a.m. update, it is now w/nw. If it gets beyond 60 I'll start to be concerned about the eastern seaboard.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It has the illusion of a west turn doesn't it?

Re: the 11 a.m. update, it is now w/nw. If it gets beyond 60 I'll start to be concerned about the eastern seaboard.

The XTRP model looks downright spooky for Wilmington!

[drezee]

It has the illusion of a west turn doesn't it?

Re: the 11 a.m. update, it is now w/nw. If it gets beyond 60 I'll start to be concerned about the eastern seaboard.

The XTRP model looks downright spooky for Wilmington!

That s not a model...just a 5 day extension of the current movement extrapolated

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hence the smiley face.

[KWT]

Yep looks like its now going WNW probably feeling the effects of the upper ridge that is nearby, once it gets to the west of that feature then we should see a more noticeable move to the north, though steering currents are expected to be light so anything could happen for a while?

[MiamiensisWx]

It has the illusion of a west turn doesn't it?

It's not an illusion; I'm observing a turn to the WNW as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

hmmmmm........ something is fishy,.... i see a longer wnw motion coming,. today

[Weatherfreak14]

I notyice a WNW Turn as well and each degree it moves more to the west the more bermuda is in trouble. Also it has a cat eye right now, i wonder if it shall open up a bit more throughout the day.

[fci]

It has the illusion of a west turn doesn't it?

Re: the 11 a.m. update, it is now w/nw. If it gets beyond 60 I'll start to be concerned about the eastern seaboard.

All the experts predicted this jog to the WNW.
Not to worry, it will turn gradually to the N, stall a bit and then move N or NNE.
This is of no concern to the Eastern Seaboard according to everything the Pro Mets and NHC say.
No ambiguity in their forecasts.
Bermuda is the only concern and it still looks to be well East of the island.

[KWT]

Yep further west it gets now the greater the threat to Bermuda. You can see the western ridge weakening as the oen to the east take sover. I believe a weakness will cut through the middle and allow Bertha to head NNW eventually, thats the plan I believe. The longer this WNW motion continues though the greater risk of a landfall shot to Bermuda.

[Weatherfreak000]

If you want to see this hit the Eastern Seaboard, Intensification is going to have to not happen. If it becomes a more intense hurricane again it'll be more likely to shift north exactly as we saw earlier.

But then of course there is an obscene amount of model consensus against that, so I suppose that about says it all.

[HurricaneHunter914]

One day she's strengthening, then the next day she's weakening, and next day she's strengthening. Can't she make up her mind!

[KWT]

Bermuda is the only concern and it still looks to be well East of the island.

Got to admit I think its going to get closer to the island then you expect, the models are in good agreement that it will lift out to sea I do agree this shouldnt be an eastern seaboard threat but this is progged to get close enough to the USA that a slightly longer spell of WNW movement would increase the threat a lot.

[Chacor]