ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

maybe a computer generated those coordinates ... that would make sense .. lol

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

FINALLY some convergence near the broad surface low

[Blown Away]

The 72 hour TAFB has shifted quite a bit west.

[img][/img]

[Wthrman13]

seriously radar .. is hideous looking its a mess .. no bands that even discernible. at the surface this thing is very sad !!!

reminds me of Erin last year

Sat looked impressive... but very little at the surface

Until it nailed us here in OK that is...

As a 55 kt "low"...

Yes I'm bitter

Anyway, sometimes these fast-moving systems take a long time to close off down at the surface in the face of strong low-level easterly trades.

[HurricaneHunter914]

seriously radar .. is hideous looking its a mess .. no bands that even discernible. at the surface this thing is very sad !!!

reminds me of Erin last year

Sat looked impressive... but very little at the surface

If what you guys are saying is true, then chances for development may go below 20%. In the next several hours, this thing will run into PR and DR, probably ripping it to shreds. It's beautiful now, but w/ poor surface conditions and tall mountains in it's way, this may just be another..."next"!

[wxman57]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

FINALLY some convergence near the broad surface low

Yeah, I saw that. Convection getting closer to that weak LLC area. It'll get going eventually. Possibly by 4am CDT.
I'd just as soon NOT get a call at 3:30am to get to work ASAP! I'd rather that they wait for 10am.

[ConvergenceZone]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

FINALLY some convergence near the broad surface low

Derek, let me get your expert opinion here. Do you think this will hold off until Saturday to become a depression? or do you think tomorrow or tomorrow night is a better possibility?

[canegrl04]

seriously radar .. is hideous looking its a mess .. no bands that even discernible. at the surface this thing is very sad !!!

It sure is... here is an image with the range rings set on the 18.3, 64.6 position. And I see... not much! lol

did i tell everyone that i have been laughing at the coordinates that are supposed to be official.. i can say one thing for sure... nothing at those coordinates...

That looks like a Transformer attacking

[Extremeweatherguy]

The official NHC postion, 18.3N 64.6W is right here in the BVI all right.

We have had no wind, and no heavy rains yet, but it's starting to rain again. Radar shows some good squalls moving in... when they hit, we'll have wind. In fact, I can hear it gusting out there now. Sounds like squalls, horizontal rain, LOL.

rats! thought this posted and walked away, came back and it's still here...

Stay inside, bvigal! You're in the eye. The 5 mph wind is going to return with the same fury from the opposite direction shortly!

All kidding aside, I think this is the strangest invest/developing system I have ever tracked. Everything is perfect for intensification (aside from land interaction) and it still hasn't been upgraded due to no LLC. I'm baffled...

What is funny though is that there is actually some kind of LLC. It is very evident when looking at surface wind directions being reported. The problem is that it just isn't strong enough or well-enough defined for an upgrade right now.

[Aric Dunn]

seriously radar .. is hideous looking its a mess .. no bands that even discernible. at the surface this thing is very sad !!!

reminds me of Erin last year

Sat looked impressive... but very little at the surface

Until it nailed us here in OK that is...

As a 55 kt "low"...

Yes I'm bitter

Anyway, sometimes these fast-moving systems take a long time to close off down at the surface in the face of strong low-level easterly trades.

very true.. was not paying attention to the easterlies.. what are we looking at right now with them ,,,

[HURAKAN]

[Extremeweatherguy]

seriously radar .. is hideous looking its a mess .. no bands that even discernible. at the surface this thing is very sad !!!

reminds me of Erin last year

Sat looked impressive... but very little at the surface

If what you guys are saying is true, then chances for development may go below 20%. In the next several hours, this thing will run into PR and DR, probably ripping it to shreds. It's beautiful now, but w/ poor surface conditions and tall mountains in it's way, this may just be another..."next"!

As much as I would love for that to happen, I doubt it will. I think the chances of this developing are still pretty high.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Doesn't have much time, it's about to plow into PR, if it was slightly more north, it could have had a chance.

[Aric Dunn]

ok i see the center .. its those little cell far bottom left of that image !!! strong little fellas.. lol

j/k

[expat2carib]

It's more empty words then sense right now;

You guys have been working hard. Get some sleep and see you fresh tomorrow.

We need you!!

[bvigal]

The official NHC postion, 18.3N 64.6W is right here in the BVI all right.

We have had no wind, and no heavy rains yet, but it's starting to rain again. Radar shows some good squalls moving in... when they hit, we'll have wind. In fact, I can hear it gusting out there now. Sounds like squalls, horizontal rain, LOL.

rats! thought this posted and walked away, came back and it's still here...

Stay inside, bvigal! You're in the eye. The 5 mph wind is going to return with the same fury from the opposite direction shortly!

Yeah, it's a sigh of relief, you better believe it!

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

FINALLY some convergence near the broad surface low

Yeah, I saw that. Convection getting closer to that weak LLC area. It'll get going eventually. Possibly by 4am CDT.
I'd just as soon NOT get a call at 3:30am to get to work ASAP! I'd rather that they wait for 10am.

I'm setting my alarm for 0830 UTC

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

Dont see how this is going to avoid major land interaction with hispaniola

[BensonTCwatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

FINALLY some convergence near the broad surface low

ahhh . Yep each prevoius time the convergence showed, it was irregular and small. i.e.plot just 3 hrs prior. We still may well see this work to the surface tonight. With convergence and sustained convection and......patience.

[Aric Dunn]

I just want everyone to know that the MLC from earlier is now underneath the ball of convection a helping to fire more convection.. yah.. what does that mean .. well more disorganized mess ....

mlc 18.4n 63.7w