ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

The NAM and the GFS- on the border. I'll be in bed then, but I suspect Euro and UK Met follow suit. UK Met might be halfway down to Veracruz, which might be a tad too far South...

[mattpetre]

The NAM and the GFS- on the border. I'll be in bed then, but I suspect Euro and UK Met follow suit. UK Met might be halfway down to Veracruz, which might be a tad too far South...

'Bout to go to bed too Ed, but don't count on a MX hit please... I have a feeling Ike has TX written on it somewhere.

[Wx_Warrior]

People "not buying this, not buying that..."

Remember, historically this storm isn't supposed to even get into the GOM. Throw record books & normalcy out the window with Ike.

[Texashawk]

You know, when you think about it, it's quite extraordinary - 6 days ago this was a fish storm, 5 days ago this was an Atlantic Coast storm, 4 days ago this was a NE Gulf Coast storm, 3 days ago this was a N Gulf Coast storm, 2 days ago this was a LA storm, yesterday this was a SE TX storm, and today it's almost a MX storm.

This is what keeps disaster planners up at night, folks.

[njweather]

You know, when you think about it, it's quite extraordinary - 6 days ago this was a fish storm, 5 days ago this was an Atlantic Coast storm, 4 days ago this was a NE Gulf Coast storm, 3 days ago this was a N Gulf Coast storm, 2 days ago this was a LA storm, yesterday this was a SE TX storm, and today it's almost a MX storm.

This is what keeps disaster planners up at night, folks.

This morning it was a LA storm...

[fasterdisaster]

People "not buying this, not buying that..."

Remember, historically this storm isn't supposed to even get into the GOM. Throw record books & normalcy out the window with Ike.

This doesn't change the fact that there is a big ol' trough. Ike is not unique, the synoptics are. And the fact is, synoptics still do not call for this hitting Mexico.

[attallaman]

So would I be correct in saying tonight that this storm "will not" pose any threat to the CGOM region? This is a TX or a TX/MX storm?

[Wx_Warrior]

What is really interesting is to go back thru this and the discussion thread to see how many people said "I don't buy the trough dipping that far down, or that strong..." theory, etc.

I stick by my guns (NE GOM), and of course I was way off. I'm a sports writer, but have a pro met as a bro so it's in my blood.

[hurricanetrack]

New UKMET is still showing upper TX coast.

HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 79.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2008 21.6N 79.7W STRONG
12UTC 09.09.2008 22.5N 82.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2008 23.5N 84.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2008 24.5N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2008 25.2N 86.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2008 25.6N 88.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2008 25.8N 90.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2008 26.1N 92.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2008 27.6N 94.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2008 29.4N 95.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2008 32.1N 96.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Wx_Warrior]

UK and CMC i just don't get excited about.

[txag2005]

Is there anyway to get a map plot of those coordinates for the UKMET run?

[txag2005]

I just found a way to do it using Google Earth.

If I'm plotting the coordinates right...that UKMET looks to be saying landfall is around Freeport/West End of Galveston.

Are we seeing another east shift? I believe the last UKMET model had it down by corpus.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea, believe so. UK had this one going just north of corpus then the trough effects pull it north.

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL near Mexico/Texas border

071
WHXX04 KWBC 090530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.7 80.2 295./11.1
6 21.8 81.5 276./11.4
12 22.3 82.7 293./12.1
18 22.5 83.6 283./ 8.7
24 22.9 84.3 299./ 7.7
30 23.3 85.0 296./ 7.6
36 23.9 85.5 320./ 8.0
42 24.3 86.3 294./ 8.1
48 24.7 87.1 297./ 7.8
54 24.7 88.0 274./ 8.5
60 24.9 89.1 281./10.3
66 25.0 90.3 276./10.5
72 25.2 91.5 277./11.4
78 25.3 92.9 275./12.9
84 25.6 94.1 285./11.2
90 25.7 95.4 273./11.4
96 26.1 96.4 291./ 9.8
102 26.4 97.3 287./ 8.8
108 26.8 98.2 298./ 9.4
114 27.2 99.0 293./ 7.6
120 27.6 99.7 304./ 7.4
126 27.7 100.4 273./ 6.4

[txag2005]

This shift makes me want to stay up for the next set of GFDL and HWRF runs.

So far we have the GFS at Tx/Mx border and UKMET at Freeport/Galveston. I imagine the GFDL and HWRF will be closer to the GFS.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW...CMC - corpus

[cycloneye]

This shift makes me want to stay up for the next set of GFDL and HWRF runs.

So far we have the GFS at Tx/Mx border and UKMET at Freeport/Galveston. I imagine the GFDL and HWRF will be closer to the GFS.

GFDL is above you.

[txag2005]

Where was the CMC last run?

[Wx_Warrior]

Will EURO follow it's fellow UKMET near Galvez? Likely...While GFS continues to lead GFDL/HWRF by the hand..

[Wx_Warrior]

Last CMC was TX/LA border.