ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[txag2005]

Which models are more accurate? I assume that question isn't all that easy to answer.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[txag2005]

So thus far compared to the last run:

GFS: Tx/Mx border area (similar to the last run)
GDFL: Tx/Mx border area (south/west)
CMC: Corpus Christi area (north/east)
UKMET: Freeport/Galveston West End (north/east)

Looks like we still have no clue where this thing is going.

[superfly]

Which models are more accurate? I assume that question isn't all that easy to answer.

GFDL and ECMWF have been the best this season.

[txag2005]

Where the latest ECMWF tracking? I can't find it.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...In my opinion I think EURO has missed the boat a few times this season. They all have their day. Storms are tricky.

[HouTXmetro]

I think the last CMC was at the TX/LA border

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes....Metro...Should that be CMC: South/something??? LOL

[txag2005]

Just based on some reasonably big changes again this run, looks like Houston still could be at risk. A lot of people around here I think have already began to think its over. I didn't watch, but apparently the 9/10 PM mets, on at least 1 or 2 channels, pretty much said this thing is going south and theres nothing to worry about.

Not good if this thing turns north at some point.

Anyone have any thoughts on the risk of Houston/Galveston at this point?

[Wx_Warrior]

Texag...A little earlier for EURO...Free site is update @ 2am Central. Usually one or 2 will post the early version (usually Ivan Hater) but looks as if he is in bed.

100% agree about threats not being over....Heck, they are just getting started. What 4 days away? I don't think anyone (at least I hope they arent') thinking they are out of the cone (Texas).

[Wx_Warrior]

HWRF looks south of Corpus
[url]
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation[/url]

[shah8]

What's interesting is that the GFS has an outlying feature in the no north turn, either in the gulf or overland. Just about everything else 'cept for the NAM and BAMs sez that there will be a north turn.

[shah8]

I think the models have gone as far south as they are gonna go. Let's see whether it stays there or windshield-wipe back and forth in a range.

[Brent]

Euro looks like north of Corpus. Shift north.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[TampaFl]

2:00am psition = moving west along CSouthern Cuban coast:

[Normandy]

Pretty interesting how Ike has basically paralleled the Cuban coast. Gives credence to the theory that cyclones tend to parallel landmasses when moving at a somewhat adjacent heading to them. Notice the wobble WNW and then the W turn.

[superfly]

Euro looks like north of Corpus. Shift north.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

That's a shift south, Euro had Galveston last run.

[Brent]

Euro looks like north of Corpus. Shift north.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

That's a shift south, Euro had Galveston last run.

Nope, it was below Corpus.

[superfly]

Nope, it was below Corpus.

No, it wasn't. It was due south of Galveston at 120h then goes north into Galveston or just south of there.

[vaffie]

It is worth noting that it was the Euro and the UKMET that led the southerly and westerly march of models. The fact that the latest 0Z Euro/UKMET/CMC models are so much further north than the GFS/GFDL now is not a good sign for SE Texas, and I expect the models to shift over the next 24 hours back towards central Texas and further north from there. I don't know how much the models are allowing for poleward movement of a large intense hurricane, but it bothers me. Not a good situation for Corpus Christi, Victoria, Galveston, Houston and Beaumont to be in. Ike looking better and better on satellite.