ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

[6SpeedTA95]

I wouldn't call any Category 3 storm disorganized or weak.

The fact is Ike maintained more strength over the past two days than generally forecast - in spite of facing some significant shear.

Again that was in DIRECT comparison with the same storm prior.

[Sabanic]

NHC is opting for a short-term solution with that west shift. They are still up in the air about the shortwave trough. You are seeing a track that could change quickly.

Which is why I keep saying that none of us will have a very clear picture on where Ike is going until probably at least until Tuesday or Wednesday

[johngaltfla]

That NHC forecast track is ominous for New Orleans. I agree with the consensus here that we will not have a good handle on this for at least 36 hours....

[jinftl]

NHC Forecast trend of cumulative probability of the locations below experiencing 34kt, 50kt, 64kt in the forecast period (120 hours). The first % is what was forecast with 11pm Friday advisory, the second was the forecast with the 5am Saturday advisory, the third (in bold) is the current friday 11 am forecast probability.

Keep an eye on these with each new forecast advisory...it helps to see trends and assess risk.


Fort Pierce
34kt 33%-30-26%
50kt 12%-9%-7%
64kt 6%-4%-3%


West Palm Beach
34kt 41%-37%-33%
50kt 16%-13%-10%
64kt 8%-7%-5%


Miami
34kt 48%-45%-44%
50kt 24%-21%-18%
64kt 12%-10%-7%


Marathon
34kt 54%-53%-56%
50kt 29%-29%-28%
64kt 17%-15%-15%


Key West
34kt 52%-54%-56%
50kt 29%-29%-30%
64kt 17%-15%-16%

[cycloneye]

That track would probably weaken Ike a good deal more then the NHC shows, bet it'd just a marignal 65kt hurricane if that track were to happen...

Also note its got a terrible set-up for the T&C and other islands nearby...

Also I think lowering the winds to 95kts maybe a little premature but there you go!

They didnt get the first plane pass thru eye to put the data in the advisory.

[KWT]

I suspect the NHC may have gone just a touch too far west on this update and the models will start to back towards the GFDL solution.

I think the NHC are gonig to be kicking themselves now that recon shows even in the S.quadrant there are winds to support a cat-3 still!!

cycloneye, yep but in that case they should have held at 100kts then downgrade the advisory after if data didn't support it...

[miamijaaz]

I take it our ability to detect the timing and strength of a weaknesses in a ridge and a tropical cyclone's reaction to the same could be better.

Anyways, go (Miami) Hurricanes!

[Sabanic]

I suspect the NHC may have gone just a touch too far west on this update and the models will start to back towards the GFDL solution.I think the NHC are gonig to be kicking themselves now that recon shows even in the S.quadrant there are winds to support a cat-3 still!!

Gotta ask why at this point KW? It's going to be, as always, a timing issue for the weakness, and remember the GFDL was too far east on Gustav for 2-3 days. Consistently showed him coming very close to Mobile, but then changed westward on the last day or so.

[Grease Monkey]

That track would probably weaken Ike a good deal more then the NHC shows, bet it'd just a marignal 65kt hurricane if that track were to happen...

Also note its got a terrible set-up for the T&C and other islands nearby...

Also I think lowering the winds to 95kts maybe a little premature but there you go!

They didnt get the first plane pass thru eye to put the data in the advisory.

Does that also mean they may not have the accurate motion that ike is currently moving at with the lastest update?

[CrazyC83]

The Recon data supports 105-110 kt so a special advisory to correct, or a new update, is possible soon.

[jinftl]

DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF
THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


It almost seems like they did opt for the continuing wnw camp of models....i would be curious to see what the track forecast would be for the other group of models. Could this be a situation where they are setting up for a potential track shift later on...if needed....with the hope there is more consensus of models?

[Vortex]

11AM was not NHC better advisories..Prior to the 11am it was clear from recon that the pressure had dropped to arround 955 down 7mb since the 5am. Also winds suggested 100-105KT storm per recon.

[cycloneye]

There are no astericks in the 124 SFMR data.

145200 2143N 06811W 7357 02403 9687 +149 +149 212090 094 124 030 00

[KWT]

Well its hard to tell I think the NHC probably have done the wisest choice in holding close to the previous track and then reveiw what all the globals and other models suggests om the 12z run through.

Recon supports 100kts at least from what I've seen...I'm not sure why the NHC downgraded just before a recon pass through?

[tolakram]

They haven't updated the track yet, here you can see how it missed the forecast point.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Recon data supports 105-110 kt so a special advisory to correct, or a new update, is possible soon.

I don't know if I would have dropped it a Cat on the 11 am EST advisory off of Dvorak estimates with a plane on the way. "Cat 2" sounds less scary to the average TV news watcher than 'Cat 3'.


But that's just me.

[cycloneye]

It seems legit the 124kts at SMFR.If so we have a cat 4 here.

145200 2143N 06811W 7357 02403 9687 +149 +149 212090 094 124 030 00

[Grease Monkey]

They haven't updated the track yet, here you can see how it missed the forecast point.

Any ideas how that may affect the track?

[KWT]

Yep missed it by a decent amount in the end, the main question is jsut when does the westerly motion kick in, the later the further through the heart of Cuba Ike will go, the earlier and the closer to the coast Ike will be.

I suspect it'll barely emerge as a hurricane into the gulf BUT the key thing to note is the NHC are predicting conditions to be pretty favorable in the gulf and thus we are still looking at possibly a major hurricane and I concur with that.