ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

[img][/img]

Circulation per Wxman57: 18.4N/65.5W
I need a visual.

[Extremeweatherguy]

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Here is my preliminary forecast for 92L...



I think we will see this system start to get its act together overnight, and during the day tomorrow I expect to see an upgrade to tropical storm Fay. Due to close land interaction over the next 48 hours, development should initially be slow. However, once the storm breaks free from its close-to-land environment, I expect rapid strengthening to occur over the warm waters east of Florida where there should be ideal upper-level conditions in 72-96 hours. Currently, I think the ridge will probably be strong enough to get this system close to Florida, but weak enough not to bring it ashore. It will definitely be a very close call though. None the less, the eastern half of the state should still encounter very nasty weather conditions between Sunday evening and Tuesday evening (centered on Monday). Residents of Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic, Hispanola, Cuba, The Bahamas, Florida, and eventually Georgia and the Carolinas need to watch this system very closely.

INTENSITY FORECAST:

INITIAL: 25KT
24 HR: 35KT
48 HR: 45KT
72 HR: 70KT
96 HR: 95KT
120 HR: 95KT

**11:52pm 8/14/08 = Updated track map slightly to better reflect the latest center location.**

[bvigal]

Surface obs put the center near 18.4N/65.5W. South winds at BVI (5kts) and north winds at San Juan (5 kts). Estimated surface pressure between the two stations 1011mb. Maybe a tad higher pressure.All convection still east of the center.

What south winds at BVI? Our airport made their last report at noon today.???

[Aric Dunn]

[img][/img]

Circulation per Wxman57: 18.4N/65.5W
I need a visual.

its possible.. so much going on underneath that happy round ball of convection its hard to tell

[HURAKAN]

Cantore: "I have seen hurricanes that have looked worse than this"

Referring to 92L that looks great but no LLC.

[sunnyday]

Has anyone seen mention of this "storm" on West Palm tv? I passed through there today but didn't have time to watch the news/weather.

[MWatkins]

Circulation per Wxman57: 18.4N/65.5W
I need a visual.

Radar from San Juan does not support that position. Radar returns are moving through that center toward the radar...

MW

[Aric Dunn]

Circulation per Wxman57: 18.4N/65.5W
I need a visual.

Radar from San Juan does not support that position. Radar returns are moving through that center toward the radar...

MW

radar does nor support anything .. lol except a headache...

very hard to make head from tales//
i can easily see the MLC
but thats really it

[tolakram]

So knowing the center is up near PR and the drift of the MLC south west was nothing really I suppose we can look for convection to re-develop around what might be the LLC. If it clears PR then isn't it fairly safe to assume it's cleared the islands?

[CourierPR]

With the current center fix, the system may just miss PR to the north.

[AdamFirst]

Has anyone seen mention of this "storm" on West Palm tv? I passed through there today but didn't have time to watch the news/weather.

I watched WPEC at noon today and Chris Farrell gave us another one of the "keep your eyes on it" kind of messages

[Blown Away]

Looks like it is going to take a more southern path over PR than I expected. I also thought it would sort of scoot by just north of Hispaniola, but looking like that could be more inland than I expected too. But... very hard to tell until they get a good center fix and more significant surface features - which could be happening now as I believe Derek pointed out with some convergence showing up. It looks good on sat and convection seems to be expanding still... but it sure isn't showing us much on radar, at least not yet. I think we'll have to wait until it gets beyond the islands before the models get a better grip on what 92 will do. As Hurakan said, without reliable initialization of the models, they are not going to help us much... any small initial position errors just get magnified into huge errors as they crunch the numbers to predict future positions.

For those interested, I do have the PR radar loop with metars/buoys/ships overlaid on the vis sat image (ir at night) on my site. Maybe it will show us more as 92L approaches PR in the next few hours.

http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

For our friends on the islands... stay safe and keep us posted.

Well, if that 18.4N/65.5 W position is fairly close, 92L is rate on the model track skirting it along the N coast of PR. Maybe the latest convection ball appears over this position.

[Sanibel]

I think that's the center pulling back in up by the NE side:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Weatherfreak14]

I think that's the center pulling back in up by the NE side:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

u mean NW

[tolakram]

............................................................. V



Looks like 92L broke a spiral band.

If that new position is correct then the blob of convection is just NE of the center. Maybe this will finally get things more organized.

Loop: http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi ... 0&smooth=0

[NEXRAD]

For what it's worth, I'm seeing a possible circulation on radar and with low level cloud features (thanks to shortwave IR) near 17.5N, 64.6W - or just south of Saint Croix. It's at extended radar range, so the resolution with that data is more mid-level than surface, and the shortwave IR information is particularly limited due to the obscuring MCS to the northeast of Saint Croix. Limited surface observations, however, really don't support that much.

- Jay

[vbhoutex]

Cheesy, if I am looking at your track map correctly it appears you are calling for a FL landfall after a turn more to the west towards the end of the track shown. Can you expand on why you feel that will happen? And do you think it will then cross the peninsula into the GOM?

[HURAKAN]

Please, do not post sat or radar loops. Some of our members in the islands do not have rapid internet service. Be courteous.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know why some people think that a hit on the islands (if it even happens) will kill 92L. Have you not seen the GFDL? It takes the storm into the northern coast of the DR ( http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... l/slp6.png ), and yet it still goes on to develop this into a major hurricane just 2-3 days later ( http://wombat.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFD ... /slp18.png ).

There have also been many notable storms in the past to have survived land interaction quite well, and if they can do it, then there is no reason why 92L cannot as well. Here are just a FEW examples..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Elena_1985_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Geor ... _track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:David_1979_track.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Jean ... _track.png

[tolakram]

Anyway, on that loop, looking just NE of PR the convection seems to be making some curious motions. If you stare at it long enough, and cross your eyes.

edit: sorry Hurakan, I read the previous warning as avoiding posting loops of the san martin radar site due to bandwidth concerns.