ATL: IKE Discussion

[meteorologyman]

YIKES! nhc should have waited a tiny bit longer before giving that advisory out, and instead of going down a Cat this says it should go up 1

[jinftl]

Then viewers may get a fright if the next intermed advisory shows a stronger storm...jumping up catgeories is surely a way to get people's attention

The Recon data supports 105-110 kt so a special advisory to correct, or a new update, is possible soon.

I don't know if I would have dropped it a Cat on the 11 am EST advisory off of Dvorak estimates with a plane on the way. "Cat 2" sounds less scary to the average TV news watcher than 'Cat 3'.


But that's just me.

[CrazyC83]

It seems legit the 124kts at SMFR.If so we have a cat 4 here.

145200 2143N 06811W 7357 02403 9687 +149 +149 212090 094 124 030 00

It's in fairly heavy rain though. FL winds support 110 kt, so I would give that weight and say 115 kt right now.

[shah8]

NHC 11:00 advisory:

FAIL

a 124kt SURFACE reading?

It's not category 2, and it's likely not dipping almost SW like the line on the map advises. Still not sure on the latter, we won't know until 12:15 or 1:15 images comes through.

[rockyman]

CNN is running a headline across bottom of screen: "Ike downgraded to Category 2 hurricane"

[cjrciadt]

Oops NHC

[CrazyC83]

NHC 11:00 advisory:

FAIL

a 124kt SURFACE reading?

It's not category 2, and it's likely not dipping almost SW like the line on the map advises. Still not sure on the latter, we won't know until 12:15 or 1:15 images comes through.

They might be writing a special advisory as we speak...

[Grease Monkey]

It seems legit the 124kts at SMFR.If so we have a cat 4 here.

145200 2143N 06811W 7357 02403 9687 +149 +149 212090 094 124 030 00

The increase in strength may cause ike to take a more westernly track.

[KWT]

Yep in heavy rain I wouldn't put too much weight on that, the thing is recon is finding winds that are obviously at cat-3 strength at least, I think the NHC may have been for once just a touch rash in downgrading Ike...I mean why on earth downgrade based on sat.estiamtes when you've got recon in there makes no sense?

[pojo]

eye drops last night were consistent with low 960s... couldn't get surface winds...but got winds at 1 mb above surface pressure.

[cycloneye]

Lowest Pressure at second pass=956.1 mbs.The highest Flight Level winds at 120kts.


145930 2152N 06837W 7301 02427 9561 +248 +092 020097 116 065 002 00
150000 2154N 06838W 7302 02441 9568 +268 +050 024113 120 069 000 00
150030 2155N 06839W 7417 02319 9570 +295 +032 023106 108 072 000 00
150100 2156N 06840W 7426 02335 9604 +281 +039 032099 108 068 000 03
150130 2157N 06842W 7371 02423 9694 +193 +118 044104 106 087 001 00
150200 2158N 06843W 7415 02393 9718 +196 +115 048105 106 089 000 03
150230 2200N 06844W 7450 02376 9740 +200 +105 051105 107 082 000 03

[Grease Monkey]

CNN is running a headline across bottom of screen: "Ike downgraded to Category 2 hurricane"

Next headline in 30min: "Ike quickly intensifies into a Cat 4"

[jinftl]

My neighbor just popped his head in...said with the storm weakening and us being almost out of the cone, he isn't putting up shutters as planned. I told him...the trend is promising..don't stop monitoring totally though later or tomorrow.

CNN is running a headline across bottom of screen: "Ike downgraded to Category 2 hurricane"

[njweather]

Er, this storm is affecting multiple landmasses right now - the NHC needs to correct themselves stat!

[KWT]

Yep no way is that a cat-2...thats a cat-3 all day and that *outside* the NE quadrant

Could find even higher winds there, 120kts though is probably 105kts range, expect a upgrade very soon...Ike should have always remained a cat-3 and will be so post season...

[NEXRAD]

The last hour's worth of satellite imagery shows an improved appearance with Ike, including better outflow signature and more a more symmetric CDO.

- Jay

[CrazyC83]

Right now, I would say 115 kt as a blend of the data. With the pressure being extrapolated in high winds, my guess for the pressure is 950mb.

[KWT]

I'm not sure I'd go that high yet Crazy...but the NE quadrant has yet to be sampled so thats where those sorts of winds could be found.

Jay, yep I totally agree it looks like on sat imagery at least that Ike is strengthening, not weakening like the NHC seem to think...ho hum!

[cpdaman]

well NHC did call for re-strengthening so i'm sure all those in the SE bahamas/Cuba are preparing and expecting a Major still

and all interests in the keys and S.Fl please keep paying attention ......the cone can shift back you know.....note i am more concerned about the Keys and the GOM today, however i don't wan't people to let there guards down completely

ESP in the keys a late shift right.... could surprise all those laid back peeps that decide not to evacuate based on the 11 am shift south.....this remains my greatest fear with this storm....you want a time bomb ....think late shift right toward keys

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure I'd go that high yet Crazy...but the NE quadrant has yet to be sampled so thats where those sorts of winds could be found.

Jay, yep I totally agree it looks like on sat imagery at least that Ike is strengthening, not weakening like the NHC seem to think...ho hum!

At the very least it is 110 kt based on the flight-level winds, even if the SFMR supporting 125 kt is discarded. I wouldn't discard it but I would put more weight on the FL winds.