ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[T-man]

Seems the gfdl has my location in the bullseye. I guess if that had to happen, five days out is a good time for it.

[KWT]

Yeah TreasureIslandFLGal if this does end up going close to the big easy like the GFDL wants hopefully lessons were learned with both Ivan and Katrina and things can be done. Sadly oil prices were always going to rise once there was a real threat on the supply.

[Portastorm]

Some very wise words from the forecaster on duty this morning at the NWSFO Houston/Galveston:

"IT WOULD BE VERY WISE TO WAIT UNTIL GUSTAV EXITS CUBA
AND MAKES HIS WAY INTO THE SE`ERN GULF OVER THE COMING 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE ANY MENTION OF LANDFALL GARNERS ANY WEIGHT."

[KWT]

Looks like current motion according to recon is WNW though still not a very rapid rate at least it seems to be moving right now.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I posted in the models section...but I don't think this will be a NOLA storm. 2 nights ago I figured this would go one of 2 ways.... either a yucatan to southern TX/MX or a big bend storm. I'm now leaning more towards big bend.

[jlauderdal]

Some very wise words from the forecaster on duty this morning at the NWSFO Houston/Galveston:

"IT WOULD BE VERY WISE TO WAIT UNTIL GUSTAV EXITS CUBA
AND MAKES HIS WAY INTO THE SE`ERN GULF OVER THE COMING 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE ANY MENTION OF LANDFALL GARNERS ANY WEIGHT."

damn straight, ALMOST everyone knows these tracks have big errors this far out. The GFS continues to look bogus gor several runs in a row, maybe it is on to something and no its not coming to SE Florida but maybe farther east than the current idea, lets see. GFS has not handled GUS well at all for a few days so maybe its just smoke and no fire.e.

[xironman]

Now 996.5 mb, yeah I know I should find something else to go do.

[KWT]

The models and therefore tracks will keep changing, the bottom line is no where in the gulf should stop watching what this system, the models are bound to under/over do a piece of the puzzle which will mean the system will go slightly different to what the models progged.

xironman, indeed the pressure does seem to be steadily dropping away as its now over water, I don't expect rapid deepening though whilst its close to land.

[sphelps8681]

Just heard on ABC News this am that it will a NO landfall. But I did not gather that from watching TWC or from this web site.

I understand they want to be prepared to get out but I don't think we know at this exactly what this storm will do.

[KWT]

Well we can'tjust say for certain where it will be but the NHC track takes it pretty close to New Orleans that is true but we shall have to wait and see.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think calling a possible NO hit this early is not unwise. They want to be sure that planning gets going now, and not later. No repeat will happen this time. People will find a way out early, or the city will arrange a more orderly evacuation. After what folks went through last time, the mere threat of it happenign again will prompt many to start leaving now for spots inland if they have nothing keeping them in place (i.e. older, retired, jobless, etc.). Getting many folks moving early makes it easier for all later if it does become obvious that it is gonna hit.

[Portastorm]

And therein lies the crux of what will likely be many agonizing moments for Gulf Coast EOC officials in the next week.

[KWT]

Should be noted it appears to be moving WNW now looking at the reports from recon, now seems to be about 15 miles offshore, should slowly continue to bend to the west.

Will be interesting however to see how quick this reorganises over having quite a tough time over land.

[Sabanic]

And therein lies the crux of what will likely be many agonizing moments for Gulf Coast EOC officials in the next week.

Yes I can imagine that if Gustav does get into the GOM and strengthen as forecast that their will be NO procrastination whatsoever by any of the EOC's along the coast. They were even mentioning Gustav quite often here on the radio yesterday and that is odd. They have, in recent years become a tad bit complacent. Guess Katrina got all of them off their butts.

[Sabanic]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008


.LONG TERM...BY THU SFC TO MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY...DIGGING SE OVER THE
CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. ONE OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE A PLAYER ON THE TRACT OF GUSTAV LATE IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH FRI AND SAT AS SFC
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT THIS PATTERN BUT NOT AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN AND NAM WHICH
LEAN TOWARDS A BETTER WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF GUSTAV OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY LATE SAT INTO SUN IF GUSTAV MOVES SLIGHTLY
BETTER N`WARD OR INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...DEPICTED BETTER BY THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH
SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE SAT
INTO SUN FOLLOWED BY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON. AGAIN
THIS TRANSITION WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION AND TRACK OF GUSTAV OVER
THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...ALL INTEREST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF
GUSTAV OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO USE
THE CURRENT MEXMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS.
/32

&&

[Hurricane Cheese]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008


.LONG TERM...BY THU SFC TO MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY...DIGGING SE OVER THE
CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. ONE OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE A PLAYER ON THE TRACT OF GUSTAV LATE IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT LITTLE TO NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH FRI AND SAT AS SFC
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT THIS PATTERN BUT NOT AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN AND NAM WHICH
LEAN TOWARDS A BETTER WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF GUSTAV OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY LATE SAT INTO SUN IF GUSTAV MOVES SLIGHTLY
BETTER N`WARD OR INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...DEPICTED BETTER BY THE 00Z
GFS AND ECMWF...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH
SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE SAT
INTO SUN FOLLOWED BY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS LATE SUN INTO MON. AGAIN
THIS TRANSITION WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION AND TRACK OF GUSTAV OVER
THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...ALL INTEREST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK OF
GUSTAV OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO USE
THE CURRENT MEXMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS.
/32

&&

Could someone post the NOLA NWS Forecast Discussion from this morning...that is one that I am VERY interested to read!

[Emmett_Brown]

IR Sat presentation looking more ragged, and looks basically stationary to me. Glad we have recon to give us the exact location. Overal cloud mass is not moving much, so I think Gustav is basically behind schedule. Will be interesting to see if he gets moving this morning.

[Sabanic]

Here ya go cheese . . . .

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

.LONG TERM...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES SEEM IN ORDER THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. LATEST OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV PLACES THE STORM IN THE MIDDLE
GULF PRECARIOUSLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST OFFICE WITH THE IMPLICATION OF LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...70-80 PERCENT POPS AND RA+ WEATHER ELEMENT BASED ON
TRACK EXTRAPOLATION...THOUGH THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. THE PROBLEM IS THE REQUIREMENT OF A
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH A PROBABLISTIC UNCERTAINTY
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING. OF COURSE...CHANGES WILL BE
FORTHCOMING AS FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN IN TIME. 24

[xironman]

There he is, basically where expected but off on timing



Chris has some nice recon tools at his site

[Hurricane Cheese]

Here ya go cheese . . . .

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008

.LONG TERM...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES SEEM IN ORDER THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. LATEST OFFICIAL NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV PLACES THE STORM IN THE MIDDLE
GULF PRECARIOUSLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST OFFICE WITH THE IMPLICATION OF LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...70-80 PERCENT POPS AND RA+ WEATHER ELEMENT BASED ON
TRACK EXTRAPOLATION...THOUGH THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. THE PROBLEM IS THE REQUIREMENT OF A
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH A PROBABLISTIC UNCERTAINTY
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING. OF COURSE...CHANGES WILL BE
FORTHCOMING AS FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN IN TIME. 24

Thank you Sabanic...very interesting times await. Good luck to you all down there!