ATL: IKE Discussion

[jhpigott]

anybody heard Max Mayfield today? He still seemed concerned for South Florida yesterday despite the trends to the south and west. I wonder what his take is now with the GDFL/HWRF trending back N and E

[Flakeys]

Yesterday all the folks I talked to were getting out of here. Today, not so much.

[cycloneye]

Getting far from eye plane found 108kts at flight level.

[PTPatrick]

Some of the models show Ike skipping a long the north coast of Cuba. This would be a solution that would not favor much weakening. If memory serves George traverse the entire north coastlin, half on land, half off, and still managed to hold his own or weaken only 5 or 10 mph. Goerge was weird storm though...managed to hit just about every island in the Greater Antilles and still emerged whistling dixie, only to drive the largest surge I have ever heard of in a cat 2 into East Jackson County Mississippi.

[KWT]

cpdaman, yep no doubt the islands will still be getting ready for a 3/4 as that has been the NHC forecast.

I just think for the people in the states there is big a difference in the mind set between a 2/3...a 2 is just a hurricane but a 3 to the average joe is a *major* hurricane and people always pay more attention when they are majors.

Crazy, I think the one thing everyone agrees on, this is not a category-2 now!

[funster]

CNN is running a headline across bottom of screen: "Ike downgraded to Category 2 hurricane"

Next headline in 30min: "Ike quickly intensifies into a Cat 4"

To be followed by: "Mayor Nagin warns of another Storm of the Century."

[srainhoutx]

Yesterday all the folks I talked to were getting out of here. Today, not so much.

Our Lower Keys former neighbors (old Conchs) are preparing as we speak and are leaving based on surge impact and new RECON data.

[Vortex]

NHC really dropped the ball with the intensity on this one..im actually very surprised as the board was reporting a solid cat 3 in advance of the release

[Just Joshing You]

CNN is running a headline across bottom of screen: "Ike downgraded to Category 2 hurricane"

Next headline in 30min: "Ike quickly intensifies into a Cat 4"

To be followed by: "Mayor Nagin warns of another Storm of the Century."

With all due respect, the storm had the potential to be worse than Katrina, and that wasn't even close to worst case scenario

[dhweather]

At least Nagin got 95% + out of the city this time. Whatever it takes, get them out.

[KWT]

PTPatrick, yep Georges is a good reason why people shouldn't underestimate a hurricane even if it does take a long track over land in the Caribbean islands.

Anyway I still think that Cuba will take a big chunk out of Ike BUT conditions are expected to be favorable again in the gulf and I wouldn't be all that surprised to see it exit Cuba a little sooner. I think with low shear the loop current will reorganise Ike nicely.

NHC certainly have made a little bit of a mess of this one, good job its still out to sea.

[dhweather]

NHC really dropped the ball with the intensity on this one..im actually very surprised as the board was reporting a solid cat 3 in advance of the release

They publicly admit their skills in forecasting intensity are poor at best, what more can you ask for?

[funster]

To be followed by: "Mayor Nagin warns of another Storm of the Century."

With all due respect, the storm had the potential to be worse than Katrina, and that wasn't even close to worst case scenario

Oh, I know - Nagin didn't have much choice but to scare people in order to get them to leave.

[ericinmia]

NHC really dropped the ball with the intensity on this one..im actually very surprised as the board was reporting a solid cat 3 in advance of the release

They publicly admit their skills in forecasting intensity are poor at best, what more can you ask for?

Because were not talking about a forecast, but instead direct recon observations.

[cycloneye]

From first Vortex Data Message.Lowest Pressure 953 mbs.

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:12Z

[Sanibel]

Betsy stayed strong in its eccentric SW pass of Florida.

Turks Caicos should get at least some of the dirty side core. Inagua should get the stronger hit with a close pass of the south eyewall.

[Max_Power]

The NCH issues statements based on what their data supports. If their data says CAT 2 then that's what they'll say it is.

[dhweather]

From first Vortex Data Message.Lowest Pressure 953 mbs.

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 14:12Z

Luis, what do you think 85% rule for surface winds or 90% ?

[CrazyC83]

125 kt FL = about 110 kt at the surface, with a factor around 87% for its level.

[KWT]

Max_Power the problem is the data *doesn't* support a cat-2, I think even the pro mets here would probably agree this is a cat-3 based on recon data which we can all see.

Sanibel, yep the T&C probably will still get hurricane force winds, esp if its a strengthening, the Inagua islands will probably get a brush with the eyewall, never a very good situation!