ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

The shear spigot is slowly aiming more west, looks like Hanna will catch a break soon.

[Blown Away]

It seems the LLC is slightly W of the first NHC point and IMO appears to be drifting a little W.

[O Town]

Wowzers that thing is crazy looking in that loop up top.
Looks like a weird monster smiling down on Hanna at the end........

[6SpeedTA95]

Is hannah supposed to move into a more favorable environment? Does anyone know? Yesterday poeple were talking about it being a major hurricane at landfall, I couldn't ever find anything that really gave a good indicator either way, now today I hear nothing from those who said that (see joe bastardi).

[AdamFirst]

I tend to take everything JB says with a grain of salt.

[LCfromFL]

GOOD GRIEF!!! Can you imagine if that monster ULL was a tropical low and sitting around 20N??? Has there ever been a tropical system comparable in size to that thang?

[6SpeedTA95]

I tend to take everything JB says with a grain of salt.

Me too which is why I was wondering if anyone else had seen/read any of that. I have a good friend who lives out there and he knows I follow the weather closely and he was asking me how bad it would be. I told him I wasn't sure but it looks like a cat1/2 storm not worth evacuating over in his case (he's about 95 miles inland)

[txwatcher91]

The shear spigot is slowly aiming more west, looks like Hanna will catch a break soon.

Nice loop. Notice how around 60W that t-storm moving NW and behind it the ridge building, Hanna should be moving NW by noon tomorrow.

[Eddy Gurge]

I tend to take everything JB says with a grain of salt.

Well, he said that on Saturday I will have a strong tropical storm over my head, here near DC. And this will be like the older storms, ie. Hugo.

[Grease Monkey]

GOOD GRIEF!!! Can you imagine if that monster ULL was a tropical low and sitting around 20N??? Has there ever been a tropical system comparable in size to that thang?

I would say probably yes only because the fact we're missing like billions of years of unrecorded history.

[RL3AO]

Typhoon Tip was about twice the size of that ULL.

[Steve H.]

Yeah, but that cutoff low better not come south of 35N. Otherwise Hanna will be toast. Hey, that is supposed to be a good thing!!!

[cpdaman]

shear is kicking her butt right now thanks to the monster ULL to her north...

Well gee, thats how much I been paying attention.
Holy ULL!!!



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

its really a tag team effort

the ULL's shear is made worse by the upper ridge over the gulf . the flow around both meet and drive shear sw toward hanna, oh ya and gustav throws a little of his weight on this as well.

I don't necessarily agree with the longer she hangs out , the more west she goes, simply because the (edit) ..ridge building in is being delayed by the UL trough moving out. so when the ULL moves out the ridge moves in and hanna moves as well.

[cpdaman]

Yeah, but that cutoff low better not come south of 35N. Otherwise Hanna will be toast. Hey, that is supposed to be a good thing!!!

steve what is blocking the ULL from moving? what feature is suppose to give the upper level low a kick in the pants, do you have a clue, because i don't but i would like to know instead of sitting here in ignorance lol is it the ridge pushing against it from the east?

does anyone know, pro mets where are ya

we could probably use some canadian wv loop ( i will go search)

[captain east]

Typhoon Tip was about twice the size of that ULL.

Nvm

[Steve H.]

Well the models show the cutoff low weakening an heading into the maritimes. I think we just need to be patient...aaarrgghh... an wait until morning before this happens. This is according to the plan, and we just need to wait it out until midday tomorrow to see if Hanna responds per NHC thinking. Weird. In the meantime, I'm getting concerned about Ike, who will not end up in the GOM as earlier guidance suggested, but threaten the SE US.

[cpdaman]

Well the models show the cutoff low weakening an heading into the maritimes. I think we just need to be patient...aaarrgghh... an wait until morning before this happens. This is according to the plan, and we just need to wait it out until midday tomorrow to see if Hanna responds per NHC thinking. Weird. In the meantime, I'm getting concerned about Ike, who will not end up in the GOM as earlier guidance suggested, but threaten the SE US.

or should ike feel the trough then the ridge then hanna's weakness perhaps further to the mid atlantic area

[skufful]

Well the models show the cutoff low weakening an heading into the maritimes. I think we just need to be patient...aaarrgghh... an wait until morning before this happens. This is according to the plan, and we just need to wait it out until midday tomorrow to see if Hanna responds per NHC thinking. Weird. In the meantime, I'm getting concerned about Ike, who will not end up in the GOM as earlier guidance suggested, but threaten the SE US.

You get that from?

[cpdaman]

BTW this is the worst the convection has looked in about 5 days

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

this thing still has a vigorous LLC so it will still regenerate

is the ULL close enough to give hanna some SW shear to go with the upteenth helping of Nw shear.

[Steve H.]

No, I actually think Ike will head into the Bahamas and take a run at the Florida peninsula. This might be more clear cut, since Hanna's departure (wherever she goes) will leave a void for the ridge to fill. Hanna I'm still totally clueless about, until she shows herself and begins to move to the NW.