ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sanibel]

It would make sense that at minimum a circulation center would be visible on radar if the center were reforming under that NW burst. If that is a relocation we should see a radar reflection - even at the mid-level. Otherwise this is a freakish bottom-less storm.

[CourierPR]

Praxus, thanks for keeping abreast of the situation.

[tolakram]

I posted this in the wrong thread:

Loop:

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi ... 0&smooth=0

Look at the radar imagery in motion now.

Please excuse my crude drawings but this is what I see. Storms near NE PR moving south, but those other storms in the islands steady or starting to drift N.



I placed a circle where I think the center might be close to. Maybe.

Jay pointed out that the convection south east of my circle only looks to be moving north because of cell propagation. I've still got my eye on that area though, I'm seeing a lot of movement in various directions. You can see the line that was NE of PR has moved first SW and now south. Probably nothing but hey, watching is interesting.

[HURAKAN]

Time for bed! Tomorrow will be another interesting day.

[AtlanticWind]

New Gfs run looks like it might take it further west

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I posted this in the wrong thread:

Loop:

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi ... 0&smooth=0

Look at the radar imagery in motion now.

Please excuse my crude drawings but this is what I see. Storms near NE PR moving south, but those other storms in the islands steady or starting to drift N.



I placed a circle where I think the center might be close to. Maybe.

Jay pointed out that the convection south east of my circle only looks to be moving north because of cell propagation. I've still got my eye on that area though, I'm seeing a lot of movement in various directions. You can see the line that was NE of PR has moved first SW and now south. Probably nothing but hey, watching is interesting.

Yeah it is most likely near there. Hopefully this research plane will try to look for it a little on their main mission.

[Aric Dunn]

I posted this in the wrong thread:

Loop:

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi ... 0&smooth=0

Look at the radar imagery in motion now.

Please excuse my crude drawings but this is what I see. Storms near NE PR moving south, but those other storms in the islands steady or starting to drift N.



I placed a circle where I think the center might be close to. Maybe.

Jay pointed out that the convection south east of my circle only looks to be moving north because of cell propagation. I've still got my eye on that area though, I'm seeing a lot of movement in various directions. You can see the line that was NE of PR has moved first SW and now south. Probably nothing but hey, watching is interesting.

Yeah it is most likely near there. Hopefully this research plane will try to look for it a little on their main mission.

go north of your circle by about 30 to 50 miles than your golden

[Aric Dunn]

nice ob http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 1&site=sju

[Aric Dunn]

san juan has a west wind/.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2&site=sju


check out the wind direction over the last couple of hours..

the center is just off shore there

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/TJSJ.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Very low confidence, before I thought radar circ was near St Croix, now Northwest of St Croix, or approaching NE corner of island of Puerto Rico.


But I'd wouldn't bet a value meal on it.


And I'd be very dubious of any model run, as final LLC is far from established.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting. A west wind in San Juan and a gusty SE wind in St. Thomas definitely makes you think that this thing is at least trying to close off a LLC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

-80ºC tops. Normally, that means an intense Atlantic system or a West Pac system. Few invests in the Atlantic I can remember pulling that off.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Interesting. A west wind in San Juan and a gusty SE wind in St. Thomas definitely makes you think that this thing is at least trying to close off a LLC.

radar is begining to confirm that as well ...

[cycloneye]

NW wind in San Juan:

SAN JUAN LMM PTCLDY 82 75 78 NW5 29.91F

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Interesting. A west wind in San Juan and a gusty SE wind in St. Thomas definitely makes you think that this thing is at least trying to close off a LLC.

IMO, if there is an LLC it is just N of PR, so maybe that W wind does close it off!

[Ed Mahmoud]

[tolakram]

SE 26 G 35?

I don't know, things are starting to congeal around that blob near my original circle if you refresh that loop. I'm not saying that's the exact center but based on the elevated view of that convection something is there. I'm not seeign anything north of that. /shrug

[Aric Dunn]

NW wind in San Juan:

SAN JUAN LMM PTCLDY 82 75 78 NW5 29.91F

west wind here

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 3&site=sju

[cycloneye]

At 11 PM was from the NW but here is the West Wind at 12:00 PM EDT in San Juan:

SAN JUAN LMM PTCLDY 82 75 78 W9 29.88F

[cheezyWXguy]

:uarrow: Interesting. A west wind in San Juan and a gusty SE wind in St. Thomas definitely makes you think that this thing is at least trying to close off a LLC.

radar is begining to confirm that as well ...

Well im going to say that it will be about 12 more hours before a the llc finishes. This will be slowed slightly by close proximity to PR, but the system has remained offshore, and i think that once it pulls away from PR, organization will take place. However currently, we are seeing the beginnings of a forming llc.

Btw, doesnt the way the convection look make you think that its wrapping all the deepest convection around the llc? It may be a good sign that development is underway.