ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mutley]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Convection increasing near or over the LLC.

Not wasting any time, is he?

[cycloneye]

The latest blowout of convection over the center.

[Derek Ortt]

My big question this morning is why the heck isn't Gustav moving? Shouldn't he be feeling the effects from the high to his north by now?

Likely the mountains

remember, Jeanne become completely hung up in the mountains. Still over Haiti when it was supposed to be near Miami

[Lowpressure]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Convection increasing near or over the LLC.

Not wasting any time, is he?

That is an impressive explosion near the LLC. This will be interesting for some time now.

[Derek Ortt]

CNN reporting that the town of Jacmel has been cut in half by the flooding. This is where Gustav made landfall.

I have a feeling that we will not be getting any good news from Haiti today. The 5 confirmed deaths so far likely will be going well up in the coming days

[cheezyWXguy]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Convection increasing near or over the LLC.

Not wasting any time, is he?

That is an impressive explosion near the LLC. This will be interesting for some time now.

Yep...just now over water and already has dropped a mb. Down to 997 from 998 at 5am. I definitely think that Gustav's strength will surpass the NHC's intensity forecast unless some unexpected factor comes onto the field.

[jasons2k]

I still wouldn't expect a *whole* lot of intensification until the center can clear west of the peninsula. Those mountains will still disrupt the inflow for awhile.

[Sanibel]

18.8N-73.8W

Slow movement 274~ x-y-no was right.

Burst over center over water. Maybe slight windfield improvement.

[HurryKane]

I'm not on my usual computer and don't have access to all my hurricane links--if anyone could pass along the link to the steering current images I would be grateful.

[ColdFusion]

Is Wxman57 still selling his N. Mex/S. Tex landfall today? Be interesting to hear his take on why the models aren't sniffing what he is.

[ROCK]

Is Wxman57 still selling his N. Mex/S. Tex landfall today? Be interesting to hear his take on why the models aren't sniffing what he is.

Hes most likely running over the guidance right now for his clients. I would look for him say lunch time...He popped in for a minute yesterday around that time..

[mutley]

I'm not on my usual computer and don't have access to all my hurricane links--if anyone could pass along the link to the steering current images I would be grateful.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[jenmrk]

I just can't understand how irresponsible the media can be, channel 3 news here in Pensacola this morning said its going to N.0.-it wasn't Christian Garman it was one of the news casters going to break, do they not realize that comments like that will cause people that are not paying much attention to tune out. I just took my son to the bus stop and one of my neighbors had no idea there was a storm and the other said oh its going to N.O no reason to be concerned! I just don't get people not paying attention. I am worried about a major hurricane and my Mother in law is calling asking me to bring a covered dish Monday to the cookout, she also is not concerned. I am not in panic mode, just surrounded by a bunch of people that have their heads in the sand. I just needed to vent and to say thank you to you all for all of he great information, the web site is such a wealth of information and very addicting.

[Sanibel]

Slow or stalled systems can change track unexpectedly. GFS is getting weird on us.

[tolakram]

Google Earth (plugin required):

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

Note that I still have to figure out the code to turn on lat/lon on that page.

[Ivanhater]

I just can't understand how irresponsible the media can be, channel 3 news here in Pensacola this morning said its going to N.0.-it wasn't Christian Garman it was one of the news casters going to break, do they not realize that comments like that will cause people that are not paying much attention to tune out. I just took my son to the bus stop and one of my neighbors had no idea there was a storm and the other said oh its going to N.O no reason to be concerned! I just don't get people not paying attention. I am worried about a major hurricane and my Mother in law is calling asking me to bring a covered dish Monday to the cookout, she also is not concerned. I am not in panic mode, just surrounded by a bunch of people that have their heads in the sand. I just needed to vent and to say thank you to you all for all of he great information, the web site is such a wealth of information and very addicting.

Lol, thats channel 3...do they know how close New Orleans is to Pensacola? If the middle of the cone is heading for the cities of New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile or Pensacola, all of those cities better look out

[HurryKane]

I'm not on my usual computer and don't have access to all my hurricane links--if anyone could pass along the link to the steering current images I would be grateful.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

THANK YOU!! *sends a batch of e-cookies*

[Sanibel]

ULL to N is fizzling and shrinking while being pushed east.

[HarlequinBoy]

NWS Jackson.

BY THIS TIME...HURC GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE CRANKING
THROUGH THE SRN/ERN/CENTRAL GULF REGION DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CHOOSE. THE 00Z HWRF NOW ADVERTISING SUB 900MB PRESSURES FOR THIS
STORM SO ALL INTERESTS AROUND THE GULF SHOULD KEEP TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

OBVIOUSLY OUR FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE OF
HURC GUSTAV WHICH UNFORTUNATELY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING EVEN WEAKER
STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE GULF. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE NERN GULF MOVING ESE. THIS
2-300MB TROUGH COULD VERY WELL SERVE TO SLOW/TURN OR EVEN LOOP GUSTAV
BEFORE IT CAN PROGRESS TOO FAR WEST...WE`LL BE IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
ON THIS ONE.

I just don't see a loop in the Gulf happening.

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 07, 2008082712, , BEST, 0, 188N, 737W, 50, 997, TS,