ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wxman57]

WHen do you guys expect this storm to hit 2nd landfall in Mexico or even in south TX? I have been reading the posts and I am very interested.

Teacher from TX

Wednesday afternoon/evening.

[ColdFusion]

Wow that last frame of the IR is showing a big burst of convection.

[cooter]

Thanks. Cruising in the gulf week from tomorrow and getting nervous.

[Derek Ortt]

Claudette was only a cat 1, right?

Yep...but it stayed sheared right up until the last few hours prior to landfall and then the bottom fell out. This system reminds me of her in the way the LLC is having problems consolidating over the Caribbean but yet is maintaining good convection. When it finally did it still fell apart (a total inner core collapse).

BTW...I was reading the other day and someone noted that only one storm had formed in the Caribbean during the month of July...Ceasar...at least that is what I think was being said. That's not true. Claudette '03 formed in the Caribbean in July...as did Becky in 1970...and storms in 1886, 1909 and 1931. I might be missing some...but it isn't unheard of.

I was referring to the final 10 days of July, not the entire month

[jeff]

WHen do you guys expect this storm to hit 2nd landfall in Mexico or even in south TX? I have been reading the posts and I am very interested.

Teacher from TX

Any impacts would be on Wed at the earliest. Swells may reach the TX coast Tuesday. As the system reahes the western Gulf it should slow down some and a few of the models show it even meandering off the S TX N MX coast around the middle of the week. Steering will be around the high over the northern Gulf coast and TUTT axis over S TX currently as it moves westward.

[Derek Ortt]

yep... Wednesday may be the day

This would give the disturbance a full 48 hours over the GOM under favorable conditions

[Frank P]

wxman57 does it appear to be slowing down somewhat, or is the convection building back to the east providing that illusion... looks to me it might be slowing down somewhat but hard to tell with these untrained eyes.... convection is quite impressive

[jeff]

Wed. does not give much time for prep. once this reaches the Gulf. S TX is extremely vunerable to hurricane evacuation special needs residents...there are 138,000 that have to be bussed or air lifted out of the valley alone. Not to mention it is a logisitics nightmare from the standpoint of any public evacs.

[americanrebel]

WHen do you guys expect this storm to hit 2nd landfall in Mexico or even in south TX? I have been reading the posts and I am very interested.

Teacher from TX

That is if there is a 2nd landfall, there might only be one landfall if it goes through the Yucatan/Cuba channel without touching landfall.

[Air Force Met]

I was referring to the final 10 days of July, not the entire month

Gotcha. True for the last 10 days.

[Air Force Met]

Wed. does not give much time for prep. once this reaches the Gulf. S TX is extremely vunerable to hurricane evacuation special needs residents...there are 138,000 that have to be bussed or air lifted out of the valley alone. Not to mention it is a logisitics nightmare from the standpoint of any public evacs.

We had to face some of that fiasco during Dean. The state was using national guard as bus drivers but they first had to go to bus drivers school. Not enough time for this scenario.

[jeff]

wxman57 does it appear to be slowing down somewhat, or is the convection building back to the east providing that illusion... looks to me it might be slowing down somewhat but hard to tell with these untrained eyes.... convection is quite impressive

It does look to have slowed a little. Convection is holding its own this evening...but still disorganized. However I think Sunday is the day for this thing to finally get its act together...the facotrs are starting to come together with the TUTT getting out of the way and the upper levels look good to vent the surface

[jeff]

Wed. does not give much time for prep. once this reaches the Gulf. S TX is extremely vunerable to hurricane evacuation special needs residents...there are 138,000 that have to be bussed or air lifted out of the valley alone. Not to mention it is a logisitics nightmare from the standpoint of any public evacs.

We had to face some of that fiasco during Dean. The state was using national guard as bus drivers but they first had to go to bus drivers school. Not enough time for this scenario.

The state wants its plan tested after Rita. Not saying it is a bad thing as no one wants a Rita evac repeat...but going through Dean drills every year is going to get old real quick

[perk]

Wed. does not give much time for prep. once this reaches the Gulf. S TX is extremely vunerable to hurricane evacuation special needs residents...there are 138,000 that have to be bussed or air lifted out of the valley alone. Not to mention it is a logisitics nightmare from the standpoint of any public evacs.

Jeff any chance that it gets further north.

[Frank P]

thanks Jeff, looks like you guys might be in for an interesting next week.... I can tell you this, the MS gulf coast is still not emotionally ready for any kind of significant storm...

[gboudx]

It's good to see jeff and AFM posting here. I get better information from this board than I do from the radio/TV media outlets. I know you guys can't keep posting due to your jobs, but any bit of info is appreciated.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That many in the Valley live in trailers or within a couple of miles of the coast?


I always thought the people that died during the Rita evac bus fire were extra tragic, because a well built facility in Bellaire, thirty miles or more inland from the Gulf, were probably pretty safe there.

[jeff]

Wed. does not give much time for prep. once this reaches the Gulf. S TX is extremely vunerable to hurricane evacuation special needs residents...there are 138,000 that have to be bussed or air lifted out of the valley alone. Not to mention it is a logisitics nightmare from the standpoint of any public evacs.

Jeff any chance that it gets further north.

I would not discount a track more to the NW and NNW in the western Gulf toward the end of the track period at a much slower forward speed. Of course there is still debate on to where the LLC will form up and how many times it may re-form to the N on the east side of the UUl "following" the thunderstorms. Claudette in 2003 did something similar as it was forecast to go into S TX and went in at Port O Conner.

[jeff]

That many in the Valley live in trailers or within a couple of miles of the coast?


I always thought the people that died during the Rita evac bus fire were extra tragic, because a well built facility in Bellaire, thirty miles or more inland from the Gulf, were probably pretty safe there.

Special needs even well inland have evac plans in place due to their heavy reliance on power. Since Rita every special needs facility has had to file evac plans with the state to ensure proper tracking of their people and pre-determine where they will be going.

[gboudx]

jeff, the DFW NWS mentioned this system in the afternoon AFD, but mentioned that the Upper Level Ridge in the plains will steer it into South TX because it appears it will intensify next week. Thoughts?

Here's the snippet:

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES MID-LATE WEEK AS
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF JAMAICA MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH ITS TRACK
ULTIMATELY DETERMINED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. INDICATIONS NOW ARE FOR THE RIDGE TO REMAIN
STRONG OR EVEN INTENSIFY...WHICH WOULD STEER THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTH
TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS TRACK/MOTION WOULD BE MUCH TOO FAR
SOUTH TO OFFER ANY GOOD RAINS FOR NORTH TEXAS.