ATL: IKE Discussion

[jhpigott]

Per Hurkan's post, no, it's still on the same heading mentioned in the TCD...

I agree about Max Mayfield - he's been very good to listen to about Gustav and Ike, though I worry that, unlike when he was at the NHC, he might feel some pressure from the producer to "hype" things up a bit - I hope that isn't the case...

The other channels have ranged from "all right" to totally wrong, but, at times they've all given bits of good information...

Still, I agree that between listening to only Max Mayfield, Steve Lyons and the NHC forecasters is the best bet, since the OCM's always do go for the hard sell, and, that includes the hype...

I had to laugh yesterday when one of the OCM's (Jim Cantore or Mike Siedel) were "wearin' the blue thing" (as Bill Cosby once referred to it), complete with rain-gear hat, but, in the background, kids could be seen playing in the sand in shorts and t-shirts...

The media - you have to love 'em (or leave 'em)...

LOL

what's Max Mayfield said today on channel 10?

[Derek Ortt]

this is nto a cat 2 based upon the recon data, still a cat 3

[Frank2]

That's a good question - I've been on the road for most of the morning, so, to tell you the truth I can't recall if he was on early this morning (I started watching at 5 or 6), but, late last evening he did mention the models shifting further west...

I know that this WSW dip has even surprised Steve Lyons, who early last evening was still very concerned that it would return to a westward track at a higher latitude - this morning he was smiling, so, that was a good sign...

[El Nino]

Deltadog forecast is very scary ! Look out Ivanhater !

[KWT]

yep Derek should have seen the shock when the recon data came in showing this was obviously still a cat-3 but there you go, think that will be one for the post season...

sprink52, thats very interesting, I suspect our Ike would be coming out of a very low end cat-1/TS if the NHC track happened but condtions look good for a much stronger hurricane after it gets into the gulf.

[cheezyWXguy]

yep Derek should have seen the shock when the recon data came in showing this was obviously still a cat-3 but there you go, think that will be one for the post season...

sprink52, thats very interesting, I suspect our Ike would be coming out of a very low end cat-1/TS if the NHC track happened but condtions look good for a much stronger hurricane after it gets into the gulf.

Well if the cmc is right, which it has done unusually well this year, then ike would only skim the north coast, meaning significantly less weakening...its scenarios like this that worry me...

[wxman57]

I don't understand how the NHC can projet a 25kts weakening over Cuba if Ike will stay more than one day over the island. I think, it will be downgraded to a TS.

I agree, if Ike's over central Cuba for 30-36 hours it'll be lucky to have TS winds when it emerges. You saw what happened to Gustav after its very brief trip across a relatively flat part of Cuba. This is clearly a "hedge" intensity forecast, just in case the center isn't over Cuba but along the coast of Cuba. NHC is playing it safe just in case the track forecast is wrong.

[VeniceInlet]

Our ABC affiliate meteorologist in Sarasota, Bob Harrigan, is very good. He's thorough, explains the science well, is professional and doesn't overhype, but you absolutely do know when he's concerned for this area. He comes across as a real weather geek, and I mean that in only the most positive of ways—he lives and breathes this stuff and it shows. I respect and trust him a lot. When I watched him last night I got the impression that he felt that Ike bore watching, but he didn't seem to give the same kind of cautionary speech that he does when he feels something has a good chance to be coming at us.

What concerns me is if Ike stalls over Cuba long enough that a northern path is possible, and then it restrengthens in the straits between Cuba and FL. For that reason I'm not going to feel better about S, SW, or W Florida missing this one until I see what happens with Ike vs. Cuba.

[KWT]

wxman57, to be fair Gustav got hit quite hard with shear as well but your right it'd weaken quite a lot more overland then the NHC expects, though Georges had a similar length track over Cuba and only weakened to cat-1 so who knows?

The thing I'm seeing is the models are prediciting a very good set-up for strengthening, the GFS has it at 968mbs...a global model that low

[P.K.]

Now, what's the official pressure ? 954 or 958 ?

Last eye dropsonde was 956hPa at the surface with an 11kt wind.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't understand how the NHC can projet a 25kts weakening over Cuba if Ike will stay more than one day over the island. I think, it will be downgraded to a TS.

I agree, if Ike's over central Cuba for 30-36 hours it'll be lucky to have TS winds when it emerges. You saw what happened to Gustav after its very brief trip across a relatively flat part of Cuba. This is clearly a "hedge" intensity forecast, just in case the center isn't over Cuba but along the coast of Cuba. NHC is playing it safe just in case the track forecast is wrong.

Yes but didnt gustav weaken so much because land interaction created a weakness in the storm that allowed the shear to move in and disrupt its core? Such shear will not exist in this situation, and while I admit that if this really does spend 36 hours over land, it could significantly disrupt the system, theres also that chance that it will only skim the coast without moving inland. Too early to tell. But another analogy to this storm might be when wilma made landfall on the yucatan. It spent I believe about 48 hours on land and only weakened from a 4 to a 2. I know cuba is more mountainous, but this will also likely spend less time on land than wilma did.

[El Nino]

Now, 956 mb and apparently 105 kts. Ike resisted quite well to the shear. Not a good sign for the people of GOM. Maybe it can well resists to land interaction with Cuba. Only time will tell, but significant strengthening appears likely in the GOM, then no matters how long it stays over Cuba a major hurricane could still be possible.

[cycloneye]

Latest Dropsonde position is 21.6n-68-9w.

Coordinates: 21.6N 68.9W
Location: 144 miles (232 km) to the E (86°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 079 (About)

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, if Ike's over central Cuba for 30-36 hours it'll be lucky to have TS winds when it emerges. You saw what happened to Gustav after its very brief trip across a relatively flat part of Cuba. This is clearly a "hedge" intensity forecast, just in case the center isn't over Cuba but along the coast of Cuba. NHC is playing it safe just in case the track forecast is wrong.

I agree wxman, if it spends that much time over Cuba, I would say that it's all but over for Ike, and perhaps it could recover into strong storm or minimal hurricane as long as the LLC isn't completely destroyed.... But at the same time, I would hate to see Cuba be the sacrificial lamb, because it would result in many many deaths and damage....

[caribepr]

Still on watch (since Fay, since arriving stateside), from S. Florida now. Left NC early to avoid rain/storm driving back down the coast, now stocked up here too. The feeling of *magnet* is starting to get a little weird. Glad to be back online and reading s2k again - the drone of the weather radio was hurting my ears.

[Brent]

Back to Cat 3.

[BigA]

If I recall (I wasn't alive then), Kate in 1985 moved just inland along the Cuban coast for a while without weakening substantially. It's hard to say how much weakening Cuba will cause without knowing how much time Ike will be over Cuba.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM advisory.

REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

[wxman57]

I thought you might want to see the 12Z GFS's view of the surface and 500mb pattern for next Friday. It has quite a ridge over northern Mexico and Texas and a fairly deep trof approaching Ike. That's why the GFS takes Ike N-NE into the FL Panhandle late next week. Clearly, the EC and Canadian see something completely different:

[Derek Ortt]

I don't understand how the NHC can projet a 25kts weakening over Cuba if Ike will stay more than one day over the island. I think, it will be downgraded to a TS.

I agree, if Ike's over central Cuba for 30-36 hours it'll be lucky to have TS winds when it emerges. You saw what happened to Gustav after its very brief trip across a relatively flat part of Cuba. This is clearly a "hedge" intensity forecast, just in case the center isn't over Cuba but along the coast of Cuba. NHC is playing it safe just in case the track forecast is wrong.

Kate remained over Cuba for an extended time and only slightly weakened

I think the shear helped the land to weaken Gustav. I dont see this one having shear over Cuba