Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[Derek Ortt]

the landfall path actually reduced the tidal surge. It hit at an angle similar to Elena.

Had it have crashed right into the coast, the surge likely would have been 2-3 times as high. But then again, with what almost certainly was a cat 5 or very close, you dont need a surge to cause massive damage and deaths. The wind is efficient enough

[Derek Ortt]

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080505/106634196.html

Now reporting more than 15,000 dead

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,551594,00.html

tidal surge appears to have been ~11 ft. However, despite this being much lower than for a perpindicular strike in Pyinzalu (southeast delta region), 400 of 4000 survived

[Cyclenall]

How much warning did they get about this?

[Derek Ortt]

I read some articles which said that the people were warned for lower winds than they received. Almost seems as if Myanmar were using IMD products (though I CANNOT CONFIRM THIS)

[RL3AO]

I'm going a little bit off topic, but I really don't understand why agencies like the JMA and IMD (sorry Japan for putting you in the same sentence as the IMD) don't produce more detailed advisories. I'm not asking for the details like the NHC gives, but at least something as good as the Aussie branches and other SHEM RSMCs.

[HurricaneRobert]

Probably fewer people that speak English.

I guess the answer to the mystery of why IMD is always the last to upgrade is because they have to use their own satellite products? Of course they don't have to, but that is how they operate. I can't think of any excuse for their website, which is 1) slow, 2) has a very low priority for tropical cyclone information, and 3) lacks archives.

[HURAKAN]

Cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons

Code: Select all

 500,000 Bhola cyclone Bangladesh 1970
300,000 300,000 1839 Coringa cyclone India 1839
300,000 300,000 cyclone Vietnam 1881
300,000 300,000[1] 1737 Calcutta cyclone India 1737
229,000 229,000 Super Typhoon Nina - contributed to Banqiao Dam failure China 1975
200,000 200,000[2] 1876 Bengal cyclone present day Bangladesh 1876
138,866 138,866 1991 Bangladesh cyclone Bangladesh 1991
060,000 60,000 1922 Swatow Typhoon China 1922
060,000 60,000 1864 Calcutta cyclone India 1864
050,000 50,000 1912 Wenzhou typhoon China 1912
040,000 40,000 1942 Bengal Calcutta cyclone India 1942
022,000 22,000 Great Hurricane of 1780 Barbados, Martinique, Sint Eustatius 1780
017,000 19,270 1965 East Pakistan cyclone Bangladesh (East Pakistan) 1965
018,277 18,277 Hurricane Mitch Honduras, Nicaragua 1998
014,202 14,202 1977 Andhra Pradesh cyclone India 1977


If this list is correct, with the current number of deaths, Nargis should be the 15th deadliest cyclone in history.

[Chacor]

I'm going a little bit off topic, but I really don't understand why agencies like the JMA and IMD (sorry Japan for putting you in the same sentence as the IMD) don't produce more detailed advisories. I'm not asking for the details like the NHC gives, but at least something as good as the Aussie branches and other SHEM RSMCs.

The JMA don't have to because often the local NMHSes issue their own warnings (like PAGASA/HKO/etc.) which are very detailled for the local population.

[Derek Ortt]

NHC also is not required to as meteofrance and other agencies issue the appropriate warnings for their states

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'm going a little bit off topic, but I really don't understand why agencies like the JMA and IMD (sorry Japan for putting you in the same sentence as the IMD) don't produce more detailed advisories. I'm not asking for the details like the NHC gives, but at least something as good as the Aussie branches and other SHEM RSMCs.

I guess in the case of JMA this is because all the countries in the region issue their own local warnings which the local population pay attention to. There is CMA (China), CWB (Taiwan), HKO (Hong Kong), KMA (Korea) and Pagasa (Philippines) to name a few which all produce their own detailed products.

I think this is the first time since I've been tracking TCs that I've seen a 5 digit death toll, tragic. I can only assume it will go up even further.

[Ptarmigan]

This is the deadliest tropical cyclone this century. This is worse than Katrina and Sidr COMBINED. My condolences to the people of Myanmar. They have been through a lot.

[Cyclone1]

Wow... I had no idea the toll was so huge.

That is such a tragedy...

...


...


Just wow.

[CrazyC83]

This also was pretty slow to happen, a la Katrina. It took a while for the disaster to unfold.

[CrazyC83]

This is the deadliest tropical cyclone this century. This is worse than Katrina and Sidr COMBINED. My condolences to the people of Myanmar. They have been through a lot.

This would be like 8 Katrinas happening in one year...

[CrazyC83]

I'm going a little bit off topic, but I really don't understand why agencies like the JMA and IMD (sorry Japan for putting you in the same sentence as the IMD) don't produce more detailed advisories. I'm not asking for the details like the NHC gives, but at least something as good as the Aussie branches and other SHEM RSMCs.

I guess in the case of JMA this is because all the countries in the region issue their own local warnings which the local population pay attention to. There is CMA (China), CWB (Taiwan), HKO (Hong Kong), KMA (Korea) and Pagasa (Philippines) to name a few which all produce their own detailed products.

I think this is the first time since I've been tracking TCs that I've seen a 5 digit death toll, tragic. I can only assume it will go up even further.

We can only pray that it doesn't go any higher, but it very well could. Bless all the many victims

[Derek Ortt]

its likely to go MUCH higher as well

[CrazyC83]

its likely to go MUCH higher as well

I agree, it could very well be over 50,000.

[Chacor]

I wouldn't go that far, but certainly it'll not be 15,000 when it's all finalised.

[Sanibel]

I think we are seeing a surge phenomenon with cyclones that make right angle turns into their southern draw. Sidr hit at the perpendicular angle being spoken of but didn't have a catastrophic surge. Nargis didn't have very much time in the pre-turn phase but did conform to this phenomenon also seen with Ivan and Katrina.

I disagree with Derek that the landfall angle reduced surge. Actually the eye passed in perfect postion to draw hurricane winds up each finger bay along the Delta prolonging a cross sweep of all the bays along the Delta instead of just the ones that a perpendicular strike would have hit. Maybe the surge height was reduced but extensive coastal surge of 12 feet will kill many more than confined surge of 20 feet.