ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like someone gave it a kick-spin in that last frame. Wow.

[jhamps10]

what yall think around 16.5N and 80W?? IR2 looks like there might be some low level clouds spinning underneath that big burst of convection.

Tough to say my eyes not that well trained but you do notice a little of something there.

yeah, I'm seeing it at 17N, 79.5W

[GeneratorPower]

Yes, exactly jhamps. 17.0N and 79.5W

[Ivanhater]

[Sanibel]

It's on its way. It has been bursting all day. That's -like - development.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=CST

so this buoy will give us a hint next hour? You guys are saying it should pass north of it, right?

thanks

[Frank P]

Yeah, thats the bouy, since the last reading the wind has shifted 10 degrees to the north, was 50 deg NE now 40 deg NE.. not much of a shift but at least it did shift a tad...

[vaffie]

I am personally concerned for us here in Southeast Texas. I've been watching these things for many years, and two things always bother me, when a storm is predicted to take a due westnorthwest track. The first is when there is an upper level low in front of it moving southwestwardly. This almost always seems to increase thunderstorm coverage to the north of the center--inducing northerly reformations over time. The second is the fact that rapidly strengthening storms make major jogs to the north, and this looks like it's about to rapidly intensify. You will recall this morning that the GFDL had a much more northerly track towards the Texas/Louisiana border and now, how it's showing it hitting the Mexico/Texas border. The biggest differences in my view between those runs was that the first one had it intensifying rapidly to a 935 millibar storm while the second later run to a 960 millibar storm. That difference in intensification rate may make all the difference. Already, as a couple of you have mentioned, it looks like it has reformed at about 17 north. It really seems like it has to me too. And the ULL may cause more northerly reformations throughout the night and through tomorrow too--so that it could potentially skim the Yucatan. What happens next is anyone's guess, but a strong storm will more likely push more north than these current tracks. One major problem with it is that it's moving pretty fast. So there's not gonna be much time to leave or evacuate. I hope it misses us, and for right now still think it will, but experience tells me that it's usually safer to be directly in the bullseye four days in advance like Brownsville is right now than to be anywhere else. For anyone down there, be on your guard though--this is not something to mess with. And remember this is all just my personal non-meteorological opinion.

[BigA]

What I wouldn't give for a visible image right now! This thing may actually be a tropical storm right now, if it has suddenly got its act together and formed its closed LLC. Certainly the winds were already high enough, per recon.

Of course in the morning it could look ragged and wavelike again.

[ROCK]

If the center reforms it will be poleward. The swirl looks to be in transition from the southern location to one further north.

I agree.....center reformation northward or maybe the MLC decided to drill down to the surface under the new convection....I would say 18N 79W....give or take a few degrees..

[americanrebel]

I'm venturing it is around 18.2N and 80.3W

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

This is what it looks like to me:

[TexWx]

Should the pressure be rising at that buoy?

[Cyclenall]

I see people saying that it is better to be in the bullseye now then later because somehow that lessens the chance of a hit. Well, it doesn't because the chance stays the same even if the track is usually different in the end. It's like rolling a die and it being 10 times in a row a 3. Does this decrease the chance for the 11th roll to be a 3? NO. It's not exactly like that in the tropics because it's not chance, but similar in that way.

Invest 94L looks primed to become Dolly soon enough. The midnight GFDL run must have scared the heck out of some people!

[cycloneye]

Night visible:

[lrak]

It looks like the bottom blob is going to win the spin and be at 16N.

[Javlin]

I see people saying that it is better to be in the bullseye now then later because somehow that lessens the chance of a hit. Well, it doesn't because the chance stays the same even if the track is usually different in the end. It's like rolling a die and it being 10 times in a row a 3. Does this decrease the chance for the 11th roll to be a 3? NO. It's not exactly like that in the tropics because it's not chance, but similar in that way.

Invest 94L looks primed to become Dolly soon enough. The midnight GFDL run must have scared the heck out of some people!

Oh it does "IF IT DEVELOPS QUICKLY"the models went S with slower development.Us along the coast love to be in the crosshairs of hit 3-4 days out 95% chance you are in the clear.

[Wx_Warrior]

Chill....No reason to panic.

[Jagno]

Cycloneye, as Javlin said; I woke up this morning with my home in the crosshairs of the model and a "Happy Birthday" message. We all pick about being in target range this far out because it rarely ever holds true. We love being in the bullseye right from the start because if your not then you have something to worry about. I know it sounds demented but if you've lived on the coast most of your life then you know the history of this thought process. I don't wish it on anyone.

[Cyclenall]

We love being in the bullseye right from the start because if your not then you have something to worry about. I know it sounds demented but if you've lived on the coast most of your life then you know the history of this thought process. I don't wish it on anyone.

One day at some point, the bullseye from the start will end up being the final place of landfall.