ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

[Brent]

This thing looks like a tropical storm. Can't wait for recon tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

I guess I should have looked at the latest sat images before saying Dolly would form from that tropical wave over Africa.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, as Javlin said

You meant Cyclenall right?

[americanrebel]

Cycloneye, as Javlin said; I woke up this morning with my home in the crosshairs of the model and a "Happy Birthday" message. We all pick about being in target range this far out because it rarely ever holds true. We love being in the bullseye right from the start because if your not then you have something to worry about. I know it sounds demented but if you've lived on the coast most of your life then you know the history of this thought process. I don't wish it on anyone.

I totally agree with this, even with a day out wherever they say the eye is going to hit move it at least 50 miles further east and that is about where it will make landfall. So until we get a day out I'm not counting my chickens before they are hatched. Have live in South Louisiana all my life, almost every single storm has made this shift to the East. Rita was suppose to hit around Galveston Beach before landfall and moved to the Sabine Pass for landfall. That is just one example.

[HURAKAN]

[jhamps10]

looks like it's consolidating.... oh to wish we had a visable shot right now...

[americanrebel]

So I'm going to ask what do you all think Dolly will be at this time tomorrow night? TS, Cat. 1, or higher?

I'm saying borderline TS-Cat.1 Hurricane. IMHO

[RL3AO]

I'll say 50kt storm.

[Just Joshing You]

cat 3 hurricane.

[Jagno]

We love being in the bullseye right from the start because if your not then you have something to worry about. I know it sounds demented but if you've lived on the coast most of your life then you know the history of this thought process. I don't wish it on anyone.

One day at some point, the bullseye from the start will end up being the final place of landfall.

Oops, sorry Cycloneye!
Cyclenall; Please relax. We coastal residents never take Mother Nature for granted. Why do you think we are here? We rely heavily on the wonderful experts at S2K and value all of the forecasts and opinions of the weather enthusiasts here to make sound informed decisions when the time comes. Thanks to this forum I was out safe and sound before the "media" made the official announcement. I lost my home but my family was safe and that's all that matters. We may have our little "inside" joke about the bullseye but it is not meant to cause harm in any way to a single soul. The Gulf of Mexico is not a large body of water so trust me when I say that EVERY storm is closely watched by all who reside near this hot tub. We've seen all too often how quickly storms explode in this warm body and how often they've gone crazy and took twists and turns that no one has ever seen.

[americanrebel]

I'm definitely lowballing my estimate. If I would be going with my gut I would be saying borderline Cat.2/Cat.3 hurricane

[cpdaman]

i say tropical wave lol

and american rebel now you just have to say " come to think of it, i might be high balling my estimate " borderline ts and then you will have all bases covered

[RL3AO]

You guys are saying a cat 3 cane in 24 hours? This ain't Humberto.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WXWXA

Means training mission.

Oh. Oooops.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...I love storm2k!!!!

[ROCK]

ok someone pin the tail on the center...... top blob or bottom......I am suspecting top....

[Just Joshing You]

Cat 3, 953 MB. It will be a 50k storm tomorrow at 11 am advisory.

and I'm just guessing off the wall because if for some weird reason I called it pretty close, I'll be able to brag to my mates.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No data showing any LLC as of yet. It looked this good a few mornings ago and as it moved through the islands. So don't be fooled by this suckers convection appearance, it has fooled us before. We will just have to wait intil a recon gets in there to find one.

[Texas Snowman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


As mentioned above, certainly no reason to panic, not even named yet.

If it ever does get an LLC to go - and it sure seems like that is or has already happened - I think we'll see some significant intensification occur at some point in the GOM, depending on which center dominates and how much interaction it eventually has with the YP.

Where will this be in 24 hours? Given that it already has 40-45 winds and isn't named, I'd bet a low end Cat. 1 hurricane w/winds of about 80 mph.

Where will it go? Wll, right now, it sure appears at the moment that S Tx will be under the gun. And the projected track is somewhat similar to Emily. Although it developed earlier, it was in a similar spot in the NW Caribbean at this point in July 2005. While it went into Mexico, I'm betting that the eventual landfall of whatever this becomes will be closer to Brownsville/S Padre.

But as noted about Rita's eventual move in the end game, I'm also thinking that this (Dollly to be) will slow down some in the western GOM, which I think would probably help it nudge a little more to the WNW or NW in the end game. If that happens - it does slow down - then I wouldn't be surprised to see Port O'Connor under the gun late Wednesday for a low end Cat. 3.

Of course, nothing more than my completely unofficial .02 cents being posted here.