ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

I want to call SW Florida a low probability now that GFDL has corrected west with the other models. However I can't bring myself to do that with a possible trough still in question.

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[Jake8898]

I don't understand how the NHC can projet a 25kts weakening over Cuba if Ike will stay more than one day over the island. I think, it will be downgraded to a TS.

I agree, if Ike's over central Cuba for 30-36 hours it'll be lucky to have TS winds when it emerges. You saw what happened to Gustav after its very brief trip across a relatively flat part of Cuba. This is clearly a "hedge" intensity forecast, just in case the center isn't over Cuba but along the coast of Cuba. NHC is playing it safe just in case the track forecast is wrong.

Kate remained over Cuba for an extended time and only slightly weakened

I think the shear helped the land to weaken Gustav. I dont see this one having shear over Cuba

In regard to Gustav, on Sat. as I was feverishly boarding up my home and packing, I saw nothing that indicated Gustav wasn't going to regain Cat. 4 status. As I drove 7 hours for what is normally a 3.5 hour ride to Pensacola starting at 1:30am Sunday I heard not a single report on the radio about possible shear. Not till 10am or so Sunday did I hear that shear was taking a toll. Is shear that unpredictable? Is it too early to rule it out?

[HURAKAN]

Luis, what about these:

[cheezyWXguy]

In regard to Gustav, on Sat. as I was feverishly boarding up my home and packing, I saw nothing that indicated Gustav wasn't going to regain Cat. 4 status. As I drove 7 hours for what is normally a 3.5 hour ride to Pensacola starting at 1:30am Sunday I heard not a single report on the radio about possible shear. Not till 10am or so Sunday did I hear that shear was taking a toll. Is shear that unpredictable? Is it too early to rule it out?

Well, the truth is, Gustav shouldnt have even gotten as strong as it did, and God knows it was on its way to cat5 under 20kt of shear which is unheard of. Its as though gustav's core was completely impenetrable by shear when it was over water, but land interaction provided a weakness that let the shear in, which permanently disrupted the core.

[cycloneye]

It has occured in the past.Thank you Sandy.

[wxmann_91]

I agree, if Ike's over central Cuba for 30-36 hours it'll be lucky to have TS winds when it emerges. You saw what happened to Gustav after its very brief trip across a relatively flat part of Cuba. This is clearly a "hedge" intensity forecast, just in case the center isn't over Cuba but along the coast of Cuba. NHC is playing it safe just in case the track forecast is wrong.

Kate remained over Cuba for an extended time and only slightly weakened

I think the shear helped the land to weaken Gustav. I dont see this one having shear over Cuba

In regard to Gustav, on Sat. as I was feverishly boarding up my home and packing, I saw nothing that indicated Gustav wasn't going to regain Cat. 4 status. As I drove 7 hours for what is normally a 3.5 hour ride to Pensacola starting at 1:30am Sunday I heard not a single report on the radio about possible shear. Not till 10am or so Sunday did I hear that shear was taking a toll. Is shear that unpredictable? Is it too early to rule it out?

Shear was forecasted over the GOM days in advance. Shear was evident on WV even as Gustav did his RI thing.

As for NHC's projection of 80kt, they're being conservative with the weakening, as they always are on land. Kate didn't remain over Cuba for an extended time; this is almost certain to.

[KWT]

Yeah to be fair Kate was only overland for about 12-15hrs, not really an extended time compared to what Ike faces...

However the shear as Derek states really doesn't look bad so evn IF Ike does pull a pretty massive weakening phase (like getting down to minimal TS) its got both plenty of time and also the conditions to strengthen a lot, I'd still think we could have a cat-2/3 into the gulf coasts given the time it has.

[bahamaswx]

000
URNT15 KWBC 061912
NOAA2 0309A IKE HDOB 50 20080906
190300 2210N 06841W 7584 02404 0005 +131 +128 135072 075 060 000 00
190330 2209N 06842W 7554 02431 9998 +131 +128 136077 078 060 000 03
190400 2207N 06844W 7567 02409 9992 +131 +129 137077 078 062 000 03
190430 2206N 06845W 7591 02377 9980 +139 +124 136078 079 062 000 03
190500 2205N 06847W 7579 02384 9974 +136 +128 134083 085 063 000 00
190530 2203N 06848W 7547 02411 9963 +138 +114 131084 085 065 000 00
190600 2202N 06850W 7500 02457 9956 +131 +126 127087 089 068 001 00
190630 2200N 06851W 7518 02426 9951 +129 +117 127087 090 067 000 00
190700 2159N 06853W 7538 02393 9937 +130 +118 129092 093 068 000 00
190730 2157N 06854W 7500 02423 9920 +130 +121 127098 099 071 000 00
190800 2156N 06856W 7502 02405 9901 +131 +121 121102 103 079 002 00
190830 2155N 06857W 7505 02380 9870 +139 +119 118108 112 083 003 00
190900 2153N 06859W 7468 02401 9831 +157 +105 118109 111 087 013 00
190930 2152N 06900W 7462 02387 9806 +149 +142 122117 124 101 035 00
191000 2150N 06902W 7390 02426 9767 +139 +139 126124 134 104 036 00
191030 2149N 06904W 7391 02386 9717 +148 +147 123112 122 112 014 00
191100 2147N 06905W 7380 02367 9668 +159 +154 114100 103 115 005 00
191130 2146N 06907W 7296 02426 9628 +153 +152 112101 103 119 000 03
191200 2144N 06908W 7289 02401 9586 +159 +154 106086 097 098 000 03
191230 2142N 06909W 7266 02402 9537 +182 +159 097058 064 999 999 03

[CrazyC83]

134 kt FL = 115-120 kt at the surface. Expect a TCU soon for an upgrade to Category 4.

[KWT]

Very impressive winds there, 124kts 30 second and 134kts 10 seconds, looks like Ike is strengthening once again as the inner core tightens up, pressure down to about 951mbs as well.
Not a great trend for T&C even if they will be a little to the north of the hurricane. GL going to take a very big hit from Ike's eyewall as well.

[Weatherfreak000]

Definitely not quite a Cat 4 yet...but certainly has been modestly intensifying today.

[CrazyC83]

AF plane confirms Cat 4, with 128 kt FL winds and 118 kt SFMR.

[Sanibel]

Inagua is going to have an interesting night tonight.



Kate is the best I can do. Donna is too far north and east:

[KWT]

To be fair there have been a few reports now that could support 115kts, wouldn't be all that surprising if it does get upgraded though they will probably wait till next advisory.

[JtSmarts]

Do you think they'll just wait until the 5:00 advisory since it usually comes out in about an hour?

[weatherwindow]

If Cuba is hit from the ENE,how many times it has occured in the past centuries,or its a first?

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html luis..this was the only reasonably similar approach(outside of kate)...landfall sept 4, 1888... near veradero

[cycloneye]

Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
19:11:00Z 21.767N 69.050W 696.8 mb
(~ 0 in/hr) 115.9 knots (~ 133.3 mph)
Category Four Hurricane

[MiamiensisWx]

Pressure has dropped from 956 mb to 950 mb within ~2.5 hours...

[wxman57]

I just calculated a heading from the last two VDMs I have and came up with a heading of between 255 and 254 subject to various measurement errors. I used a movement of 10 min S and 38 min W. Of course, the positions are reported to the nearest minute so it is possible that the motion was 9 min S or 11 min S and that the motion was 37 min W or 39 min W. O yes, the VDMs probably weren't exactly in the middle of the eye. For a 30 nm diameter eye I wonder how much error I shouls estimate. Would they have been off 1, 2, 3 miles or what?

I just measured the movement of the center of the eye from 1315Z to 1915Z and got 253 deg at 14 kts.

[Weatherfreak000]

I just calculated a heading from the last two VDMs I have and came up with a heading of between 255 and 254 subject to various measurement errors. I used a movement of 10 min S and 38 min W. Of course, the positions are reported to the nearest minute so it is possible that the motion was 9 min S or 11 min S and that the motion was 37 min W or 39 min W. O yes, the VDMs probably weren't exactly in the middle of the eye. For a 30 nm diameter eye I wonder how much error I shouls estimate. Would they have been off 1, 2, 3 miles or what?

I just measured the movement of the center of the eye from 1315Z to 1915Z and got 253 deg at 14 kts.

Is it possible for this storm to get into the NW Caribbean if it continues this motion?

And if that happens what would you believe the storm could do?