ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

The thing I worry about is if it weakens to say a TS, that people in the path won't take it quite as seriously as what is needed, when you have the GFS going down to 968mbs then there must be some good conditions in the gulf for strengthening again...

[Vortex]

Ike now appears to be crawling at present..

[srainhoutx]

The FL Keys...esp. lower Keys might have to deal with some aspects of Ike....hopefully everyone is taking the surge threat of such a storm seriously and will evacuate as planned.

I assure you that my contacts in the Lower Keys are taking Ike VERY seriously. They're leaving and hoping that they have an Island/home to come back to.
.

[tolakram]

Loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Look at the convection build.

[PTPatrick]

I wouldnt at all be surprised to the more westward motion begin soon. There is pretty good consensus other than EURO and UKMET that this should start going west once it gets to that big island at the bottom of the bahamas. .

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ike now appears to be crawling at present..

You can see why here...The high is building down impeding FWD motion kind of like it did with Gustav..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

He is going into a loop. just kidding ....... I think

[ConvergenceZone]

The thing I worry about is if it weakens to say a TS, that people in the path won't take it quite as seriously as what is needed, when you have the GFS going down to 968mbs then there must be some good conditions in the gulf for strengthening again...

One thing to keep in mind though KWT is being that IKE is stronger now than forecast this quickly, it's possible that it may enter Cuba as a Cat4, which means that once it emerges Cuba, it will more than likely be stronger than it's showing right now.....The most stronger it is when it enters Cuba, the stronger it will probably be once it emerges...At first I was thinking perhaps a tropical storm once it emerges or even a depression, but if it enters Cuba as a Cat4, then I'll go with Cat 1 once it emerges Cuba.

[jinftl]

Is a slower speed in the current forecast? Ike was moving along at such a good clip for a while there.

Ike now appears to be crawling at present..

You can see why here...The high is building down impeding FWD motion kind of like it did with Gustav..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS=BEST TRACK INCREASES WINDS TO 115 kts

AL, 09, 2008090618, , BEST, 0, 216N, 691W, 115, 950, HU,


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is a slower speed in the current forecast? Ike was moving along at such a good clip for a while there.

Ike now appears to be crawling at present..

You can see why here...The high is building down impeding FWD motion kind of like it did with Gustav..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I don't think so but i been watchin this high all day too see if it could jump Ike..

[tolakram]

Rapid drop?

[KWT]

Possibly CZ, the exact track is key, if it can stay close to the coast then it won't weaken quite as much as I personally think it will but we shall have to wait and see.

From looking at the WV, the current high extends to around eastern Cuba, once it gets to the western edge then we should see some motion tothe due west then slightly north of west probably.

[cpdaman]

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

doesn't have that classic look to me of late, i could be wrong though?

slower storm would be bad for s fl, no? give's time for weaknesses to move in

deep convection on the "wane"

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

can't wait for next recon pass

[Flakeys]

We've been getting our fall tides for the last week. Very high. Hopefully Ike will pass at low tide. We have bobcat reserved for Thursday to haul away the seaweed.

[Rainband]

I am hopeful that at 5pm the west coast of Florida will be out of the cone. Sorry for anyone who has to deal with ike but I sure as heck don't want it here. Hopefully cuba kills him.

[KWT]

cpdaman, maybe not but the convection has been very strong on the eastern eyewall so its quite understandable why this is at 115kts, classic maybe not but it does have a very good shape, just lacking a solid eye really.

[AtlanticWind]

Time for a hurricane warning for the north coast of haiti, hope not THEY really need a break.

[ConvergenceZone]

Possibly CZ, the exact track is key, if it can stay close to the coast then it won't weaken quite as much as I personally think it will but we shall have to wait and see.

From looking at the WV, the current high extends to around eastern Cuba, once it gets to the western edge then we should see some motion tothe due west then slightly north of west probably.

My personal opinion is that it will ride the coast line of Cuba which wouldn't weaken it much at all, but perhaps a little bit.....

[ConvergenceZone]

I am hopeful that at 5pm the west coast of Florida will be out of the cone. Sorry for anyone who has to deal with ike but I sure as heck don't want it here. Hopefully cuba kills him.

I know what you mean Rainband....Although it's highly unlikely that Cuba will kill him. There's always that slim possibility for us to hope for...