ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

The key is how far west does the high extend itself currently, that will probably go some way to determining the exact track of Ike, though at its current latitude I think a landfall then track decently into Cuba is looking more and more likely.

[ConvergenceZone]

The key is how far west does the high extend itself currently, that will probably go some way to determining the exact track of Ike, though at its current latitude I think a landfall then track decently into Cuba is looking more and more likely.

Yep, that's pretty much what it comes down to, and then an emerging Cat 1 cane from Cuba, which will more than likely strengthen further as it nears the gulf states.....Not good news, that's for sure....It's bad enough it's making 1 landfall, but to make 2 is not what we need...

[carversteve]

Please correct me if i am wrong, or am i seeing things...Ike seems to have slowed down and seems to be moving west again as opposed to wsw..Comments please!!

[cpdaman]

i think recon may be expecting ike to be a bit further west than it is

looking at the last 4 frames on visible i can't see much movement

is this some kind of illusion

[Weatherfreak000]

Every single hour...they see West movement..never fails...

The storm is on track guys.

[PTPatrick]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html


Looking at that, it has slowed down, and either wobbled due west of its last point. If that were to continue it would miss the next point by a good bit.



EDIT: Looked at some other views and not sure if I was seeing the eye or an area weaker convection. so who knows.

[KWT]

CZ, yep totally, Cuba also doesn't need this at all, esp after powerful Gustav, looks like at current trends Ike won't be all that much weaken then Gus was when it made its landfall...

I think given conditions in the gulf, don't be surprised if this one sttrengthens very rapidly after about 12-18hrs in the waters, that providing its inner core isn't totally ruined.

[UKane]

i think recon may be expecting ike to be a bit further west than it is

looking at the last 4 frames on visible i can't see much movement

is this some kind of illusion

Likely.... it won't change the NHC's movement for the advisorys... as they will put movement since last Inter/Full advisory package.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

tolakram, eye is still having a hard time really getting cleared out but it does look good and I think 115kts probably is about right though Dvorak was a little low.

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html


Looking at that, it has slowed down, and either wobbled due west of its last point. If that were to continue it would miss the next point by a good bit.



EDIT: Looked at some other views and not sure if I was seeing the eye or an area weaker convection. so who knows.

i am expecting a higher pressure reading from recon when the make there next pass in an hour

[Emmett_Brown]

From the vis loop, I see the following:

1. Outflow appears to be restricted
2. Overall appearance is distorted... Ike looks egg shaped, as if he is getting squashed from the left and the right.

Perhaps high pressure has buit in ahead of Ike, and is causing the slowdown. He is starting to look like he is being compressed from both sides.

I still see a SW motion, but it does seem slower in the last few frames. Maybe this is part of a wobble, and he will spring forward next few frames...

[Squarethecircle]

i am expecting a higher pressure reading from recon when the make there next pass in an hour

For what reason? The eye is clearing and the pressure has been dropping quickly.

[Nexus]

Ike now appears to be crawling at present..

You can see why here...The high is building down impeding FWD motion kind of like it did with Gustav..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I think a lot of us have been watching that feature, mainly because today's 12Z HWFR continues to show TEMPORARY movement to the WNW starting at around 00Z tomorrow (3 hours from now), and then resuming it's path to the Cuba coast at around 12Z.

[Tom8]

is going to Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo.

[gatorcane]

I think Ike's got some plans to visit the Caribbean...

That ridge folks is following Ike and pushing even more WSW..

Maybe a Yucatan or Mexico landfall bypassing the US all together?

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Why does the NHC keep mentioning South Florida. This is clearly not a South Florida threat anymore:

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

[Steve H.]

Yes he has slowed significantly, and I'm getting some reports last he is closing in on Cat 5. Seems to movings somewhat due west now. Strange. We in East Central Florida would like him to keep moving thanks you very much.

[KWT]

I'm curious as to what the mets say with the higher resolution sat imagery about the motion of Ike at the moment, it does appear to have slowed somewhat, may well be that its approaching the eastern side of the high now and the slow down...IF its actually the case of course!

[Just Joshing You]

Back to CAT 4.