ATL: IKE Discussion

[Pebbles]

Now I actually feel a bit bad for the folks in Cuba.. first one end of their island gets wacked by a very powerful storm.. now the other end?

[PTPatrick]

Newest GFS shows the trough lifting this up and NNE at the last minute after a slow down in the central gulf...ala Ivan and Katrina. In other words...I doubt GFDL and HWRF will feature anything much further west than Mississippi in todays runs, as they tend to be close to GFS. HWRF 12z shows almost what would looks like a stall, just like the GFS, but doesnt start the turn at 120. GFDL starts a turn N much sooner and is closing in on the pandhandle at 120 hrs as a cat 4. ALso HWRF features a cat 5 911 mlb Ike in the middle of the gulf...NOT GOOD. Ultimately I think the truth will end up somewhere in the middle of GFS, HWRF and GFDL. Which would seem at this point to target from Apalachicola to Morgan City.

[cpdaman]

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

i hope greels is ok , she is on that thin island that runs nw-se just half way into the cirrus (turks and caicos)

she posted on the obs/ thread this morning, the link in my last post contains a station updating current conditions on that island

[CrazyC83]

Once the eye clears out, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 before Cuba.

[Full8s]

Is it getting to the point where the Tampa area can at least start to breath a little easier?

I understand that this far out any answer would just be conjecture, but I'm curious what the more experienced trackers are thinking.

[KWT]

Looks like Ike is going to come very close to going over Grand Turk, maybe a little to the south but they are going to get a very rough ride indeed, would imagine there'd be some bad damage there even if they are prepared for majors...

Forecasted to reach 145mph before landfall as well, thats very close to the strength that Gustav went over western Cuba

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed PT...I think all this is too west. NE GOM from day 1.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My prayers are with EVERYONE in the path of this monster.

I am feeling much better, because earlier I was worried it would
recurve and slam Tampa Bay with a Category 4 Surge- the earlier
GFS showed it obliterating everything I own. So I feel better
for the Tampa Bay area, BUT MY PRAYERS ARE FOR EVERYONE
IN THE PATH. I am NOT wishing this on anyone.

[cycloneye]

Lowest Pressure,948 mbs.

112 kt FL, 112 kt SFMR in NW quad, pressure 948mb

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html


Looking at that, it has slowed down, and either wobbled due west of its last point. If that were to continue it would miss the next point by a good bit.



EDIT: Looked at some other views and not sure if I was seeing the eye or an area weaker convection. so who knows.

i am expecting a higher pressure reading from recon when the make there next pass in an hour

when i'm wrong i'll be the first to tell ya

205930 2137N 06936W 6968 02694 9480 +161 +050 062024 028 041 000 03

i like my crow blackened with some italian dressing

[sfwx]

Is it getting to the point where the Tampa area can at least start to breath a little easier?

I understand that this far out any answer would just be conjecture, but I'm curious what the more experienced trackers are thinking.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE THE U.S. WEST COAST REACHED NORTH
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA WATERS. THERE WAS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTH TO THE U.S. PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLANTIC...NEAR 35 NORTH/ 60 WEST...EXTENDED TO FL AND CUBA.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. HANNA WAS OUT AHEAD THE FRONT...MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FL. HURRICANE IKE WAS OVER OPEN WATERS..WELL EAST OF
GRAND TURK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER BY MON
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH NORTH FL AND APPROACHING HURRICANE IKE
WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT A CHANCE FOR THE FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF
INTEREST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOVEMENT...TRACK...AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVING EQUIPMENT...AND MODEL FORECAST
DATA INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IKE ON A WEST TO SOUTHWEST MOTION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MID
RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME FRAME WITH SEVERAL
MODELS ATTEMPTING TO TURN IKE TO THE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER POSITIONS IKE OVER NORTHWEST
CUBA EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING IT NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF.
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXIST IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK. WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA REMAIN WITHIN THE CONE
OF ERROR DURING THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT IF IKE
VEERS OFF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL ERR TO THE WEST.

FOR NOW RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN VIGILANT AND WATCH THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED ADVISORY PRODUCTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CLOSELY. IT APPEARS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF
IKE...THAT WEST COAST BEACHES WILL EXPERIENCE BUILDING SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...IF ANY BANDING OCCURS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF
IKE...PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY...MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ONLY MINOR
BANDING IS EXPECTED...WITH THE BANDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT IMAGERY OF IKE...AND THE IDEA
THAT HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...AND NORTH OF IKE
AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF FLORIDA.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IKE GO TO
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV...AND FOR THE LATEST EXPECTED LOCAL IMPACTS GO TO
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY.


SHORT TERM/MARINE...RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CANTIN
UPPER AIR DIVISION...RHEA

[stormy1970al]

I don't think I like the looks of this thing right now. Too close too home for me. :eek

[Ixolib]

Why does the NHC keep mentioning South Florida. This is clearly not a South Florida threat anymore:

Surely, if a storm is south and east of ones location (i.e., S FL) - AND its track is forecast to be within ~150 miles of said location - it stands to reason that said location may be threatened by the storm!! I don't mean to keep calling you Shirley, but surely you know this????? To say "clearly not a threat" is perhaps a bit on the extreme side of optimism.

To say "the threat is diminishing", however, might offer a clearer picture to the less informed – and also be more in line with climatology and history (not that either is truly playing by the rules with Ike).

[canes04]

Per the advisory he is moving wsw at 15, no way.
More like west at 8/10 in the last 5 hours.

The 8pm will show the slowdown.

[tolakram]

Per the advisory he is moving wsw at 15, no way.
More like west at 8/10 in the last 5 hours.

The 8pm will show the slowdown.

Why do you say this? I've posted my map of center locations and it clearly shows W/SW movement. One of the reasons I made this map was because I was getting tired of people guessing movements. Most of these points are recon located positions, all from the official NHC advisories.

[KWT]

Shouldn't be too long till this starts to bend back somewhat to the west again, current motion around 260 looking at the vis, looks like GL will take the northern eyewall...

[abajan]

Once the eye clears out, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 before Cuba.

I think that's more likely to occur when it gets into the GOM. After exiting Cuba (assuming the NHC track pans out) it will likely be CAT 1 or 2 but waters in the GOM are quite warm.

[PTrackerLA]

Unbelievable . PLEASE someone else take this storm. I can't believe NOLA is already in the 5 day cone.

[HurricaneQueen]

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CARIB&isingle=mult_big&itype=irbw

i hope greels is ok , she is on that thin island that runs nw-se just half way into the cirrus (turks and caicos)

she posted on the obs/ thread this morning, the link in my last post contains a station updating current conditions on that island

I had a PM from Gretchen (greels) about 7 a.m. today. Part of it stated "now focusing on getting all our stuff left in storage into an elevated conex box. Once finished, will leave this villa and head inland to where we will weather the storm."

I feel they will be safe at a five star resort well inland but not sure how their property will fair. I'm certain it will be a very frightening experience. Glad to hear others are thinking about her.

Lynn

[Downdraft]

Once the eye clears out, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 before Cuba.

I think that's more likely to occur when it gets into the GOM. After exiting Cuba (assuming the NHC track pans out) it will likely be CAT 1 or 2 but waters in the GOM are quite warm.

A lot of people were saying the same thing not to long ago with Gustav.