ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

Even with 5pm track...Miami still has a 40% chance of ts force winds....peripheral effects..including ts conditions are not in the all clear at this point.

Why does the NHC keep mentioning South Florida. This is clearly not a South Florida threat anymore:

Surely, if a storm is south and east of ones location (i.e., S FL) - AND its track is forecast to be within ~150 miles of said location - it stands to reason that said location may be threatened by the storm!! I don't mean to keep calling you Shirley, but surely you know this????? To say "clearly not a threat" is perhaps a bit on the extreme side of optimism.

To say "the threat is diminishing", however, might offer a clearer picture to the less informed – and also be more in line with climatology and history (not that either is truly playing by the rules with Ike).

[cpdaman]

Per the advisory he is moving wsw at 15, no way.
More like west at 8/10 in the last 5 hours.

The 8pm will show the slowdown.

Why do you say this? I've posted my map of center locations and it clearly shows W/SW movement. One of the reasons I made this map was because I was getting tired of people guessing movements. Most of these points are recon located positions, all from the official NHC advisories.

perhaps mr wxman57 could do one of his 3 hour fix/trajectory assesments for us

i think it is rather obvious to most the last 3 hours the storm slowed, wether this is temporary of a trend

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html x off all the frames except from 1745 thru now

[TSmith274]

Yeah this sucks. I remember the days when I used to say "ah... not worried. We're in the middle of the 5 day cone. It'll change".

Well guess what... the NHC has become pretty damn good at predicting landfall... even 5 days out. Time to make plans. My electricity just came back on this morning. This is ridiculous.

[jinftl]

NHC Forecast trend of cumulative probability of the locations below experiencing 34kt, 50kt, 64kt in the forecast period (120 hours). The first % is what was forecast with 5am saturday advisory, the second was the forecast with the 11am Saturday advisory, the third % is the current Saturday 5pm forecast probability (in bold).

Keep an eye on these with each new forecast advisory...it helps to see trends and assess risk.


Fort Pierce
34kt 30%-26%-22%
50kt 9%-7%-5%
64kt 4%-3%-2%

West Palm Beach
34kt 37%-33%-29%
50kt 13%-10%-7%
64kt 7%-5%-3%


Miami
34kt 45%-44%-40%
50kt 21%-18%-14%
64kt 10%-7%-7%


Marathon
34kt 53%-56%-55%
50kt 29%-28%-26%
64kt 15%-15%-14%

Key West
34kt 54%-56%-57%
50kt 29%-30%-30%
64kt 15%-16%-16%

[tolakram]

perhaps mr wxman57 could do one of his 3 hour fix/trajectory assesments for us

That would be nice, but we also have multiple recon fixes showing the W/SW movement, look at the recon obs thread. Looking at sat pics is nice but not a replacement for recon and surface obs (when available).

[jinftl]

Are you hearing when....and if...evacuation is necesaary in new orleans it would begin?

Unbelievable . PLEASE someone else take this storm. I can't believe NOLA is already in the 5 day cone.

[terrapintransit]

Once the eye clears out, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 before Cuba.

I think that's more likely to occur when it gets into the GOM. After exiting Cuba (assuming the NHC track pans out) it will likely be CAT 1 or 2 but waters in the GOM are quite warm.

A lot of people were saying the same thing not to long ago with Gustav.

True...but this is not Gustav

[ColdFusion]

Are you hearing when....and if...evacuation is necesaary in new orleans it would begin?

Unbelievable . PLEASE someone else take this storm. I can't believe NOLA is already in the 5 day cone.

Dont think any official word yet, but if I had to guess...lets see its in the 5 day cone already. A Cat3 requires evacs start 3 days prior to landfall, so that means evacs Mon or Tue at the latest. My guess anyway.

[cpdaman]

impressive looking outet band moving near turks and caicos over next two hours

[KWT]

Yep cpdaman it does seem like the motion has slowed looking at the loops though that may just be an illusion.

The other thnig to mention...the NHC mentioned time and time again of shear in the gulf with Gustav...there is no such talk with Ike, do NoT expect the same result as we saw with Gustav of weakening...

[jinftl]

I am speechless...let's all do some serious -removed-...away from new orleans....no one needs a Cat 4, but come on....enough is enough for that city....give them a break!

Are you hearing when....and if...evacuation is necesaary in new orleans it would begin?

Unbelievable . PLEASE someone else take this storm. I can't believe NOLA is already in the 5 day cone.

Dont think any official word yet, but if I had to guess...lets see its in the 5 day cone already. A Cat3 requires evacs start 3 days prior to landfall, so that means evacs Mon or Tue at the latest. My guess anyway.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Why does the NHC keep mentioning South Florida. This is clearly not a South Florida threat anymore:

I can see your perspective:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

where SE FL is just barely on the fringe of the 3 day cone, but you all in South Florida should
still pay attention.


Remember that with Hanna she went very far south so people in the Carolinas might
have said don't worry Hanna's headed south and away, but then Hanna did a total
180 Degree shift and so did the NHC track.


Based on my observations, these models have flip flopped all the way from Miami to Cuba and from
Tampa (some model runs) to Texas in terms of gulf impact, so with models this fickle
you never know. The model runs may do a complete 90 or possible 180 in any direction,
they did a 180 degree shift on Hanna...so ya never know for sure at this point.
They're based off of mathematical equations.

Also gatorcane, this could go into the Caribbean, stall, get picked up by a trough and Swept
Hurricane Wilma style through South Florida- I'm not saying that is going to happen here,
but if steering currents weaken Ike could easily come back at south florida from the SW
like a late season storm under the influence of a trough. Again, I don't see that happening as of
now...but you never know with this fickle equations. The solutions (model tracks) to the equations
have jumped such radical distances that really no one is in the clear yet.

[PTPatrick]

The area between Apalachicola and Grand Isle has REALLY taken a beating in the last decade. Counting cat 2 or above (in other words not Erin, Cindy, Danny, etc) in the last 10 years:
I put the actual landfall strength first, and what it was prior to landfall before it.
Georges(2/3)
Katrina(3/4)
Ivan(3/4)
Dennis(2/4)
Gustav(close enough as the eyewall hit Grand Isle)

BY FAR THAT IS MORE THAN ANY PREVIOUS DECADE IN THE LAST CENTURY. HERE IS WHAT I COULD FIND, IF I MISSED ONE SORRY 1920 to 1910 comes close

1997- 1987 Opal(3/4) was the only landfall of cat 2 or above

1986-1976 Fredric(3/4) and Elena(3) were the only ones

1975-1965 Camille (5), Betsy (3)

1964-1954 NONE

1953-1943 1947 storm

1942-1932 NONE

1931-1921 1926 storm into MObile

1920-1910 1915 NOLA, 1916 storm into Mobile, and 1916 storm just east of Pensacola, and 1917 storm ....THE LAST MOST ACTIVE DECADE

1909-1889 1909 storm, 1906 storm near MObile

[jinftl]

We could still see ts conditions..at least in squalls here being on the 'dirty' side...even with the current track...that merits some mention. NHC last put the risk of ts force winds in Miami at 40% still....as of latest forecast.

Why does the NHC keep mentioning South Florida. This is clearly not a South Florida threat anymore:

I can see your perspective:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

where SE FL is just barely on the fringe of the 3 day cone, but you all in South Florida should
still pay attention.


Remember that with Hanna she went very far south so people in the Carolinas might
have said don't worry Hanna's headed south and away, but then Hanna did a total
180 Degree shift and so did the NHC track.


Based on my observations, these models have flip flopped all the way from Miami to Cuba and from
Tampa (some model runs) to Texas in terms of gulf impact, so with models this fickle
you never know. The model runs may do a complete 90 or possible 180 in any direction,
they did a 180 degree shift on Hanna...so ya never know for sure at this point.
They're based off of mathematical equations.

Also gatorcane, this could go into the Caribbean, stall, get picked up by a trough and Swept
Hurricane Wilma style through South Florida- I'm not saying that is going to happen here,
but if steering currents weaken Ike could easily come back at south florida from the SW
like a late season storm under the influence of a trough. Again, I don't see that happening as of
now...but you never know with this fickle equations. The solutions (model tracks) to the equations
have jumped such radical distances that really no one is in the clear yet.

[terrapintransit]

Are you hearing when....and if...evacuation is necesaary in new orleans it would begin?

Unbelievable . PLEASE someone else take this storm. I can't believe NOLA is already in the 5 day cone.

Dont think any official word yet, but if I had to guess...lets see its in the 5 day cone already. A Cat3 requires evacs start 3 days prior to landfall, so that means evacs Mon or Tue at the latest. My guess anyway.

[/quote]



I know this is not the models thread but looks like there is a possibility IKE may track more towards the west in time...I know it's still early but at least there is some hope and at least SOME positivity around here...

[tolakram]

well according to wxman recon obs and vdm's are too difficult and "tricky" to determine movement . high res visual may be the best i don't argue it's going wsw , it has slowed ....(wether for 3 hours or more )

This could be the slowdown that preceeds the turn toward the west. Heck if it doesn't decide to turn soon it's going to get south of Cuba.

latest VDM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We could still see ts conditions..at least in squalls here being on the 'dirty' side...even with the current track...that merits some mention. NHC last put the risk of ts force winds in Miami at 40% still....as of latest forecast.

Why does the NHC keep mentioning South Florida. This is clearly not a South Florida threat anymore:

I can see your perspective:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

where SE FL is just barely on the fringe of the 3 day cone, but you all in South Florida should
still pay attention.


Remember that with Hanna she went very far south so people in the Carolinas might
have said don't worry Hanna's headed south and away, but then Hanna did a total
180 Degree shift and so did the NHC track.


Based on my observations, these models have flip flopped all the way from Miami to Cuba and from
Tampa (some model runs) to Texas in terms of gulf impact, so with models this fickle
you never know. The model runs may do a complete 90 or possible 180 in any direction,
they did a 180 degree shift on Hanna...so ya never know for sure at this point.
They're based off of mathematical equations.

Also gatorcane, this could go into the Caribbean, stall, get picked up by a trough and Swept
Hurricane Wilma style through South Florida- I'm not saying that is going to happen here,
but if steering currents weaken Ike could easily come back at south florida from the SW
like a late season storm under the influence of a trough. Again, I don't see that happening as of
now...but you never know with this fickle equations. The solutions (model tracks) to the equations
have jumped such radical distances that really no one is in the clear yet.

I agree yes South Florida should still be ready for tropical storm force winds especially
in rainbands...and Ike is Huge...so those rainbands with tropical storm force gusts
will go well up into South Florida and possibly up to central Florida when you
add daytime heating.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Mr. Delta Dog


Have you seen any of the G-IV data, and does the data match what the current model runs think? I know it isn't in the models yet, but it should be able to serve as a QC check.

[hiflyer]

I feel they will be safe at a five star resort well inland but not sure how their property will fair. I'm certain it will be a very frightening experience. Glad to hear others are thinking about her.

Lynn

T&I has two submarine comm cables plus a large cable&wireless earthstation. As a fyi a lot of smaller islands shut off utilities prior to landfall to avoid problems such as blown transformers, fuses, wires down. Easier to restore afterwards is the belief. However...when used to being in a connected world having no communications or power tends to increase anxiety...a lot! Folks on Grand Cayman remarked how different/easier it was this time with the power and water left on for their first one last month. The islands use diesel fired generators to produce electricity which may be better shutdown during a storm than a coal fired unit that takes time to restart.

[KWT]

Possibly it does seem to have moved a little more to the west in the last hour, though I suppose it is still around 265. looks like if it holds this motion then it will be very close to the NHC track...

Can't quite believe we are looking at another gulf hit...