ATL: IKE Discussion

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The fact is guys, we really don't know, and won't know what's gonna happen
until it happens. So eveyone should be prepared. These things are very very
hard to predict...I know NHC is getting better and better, but in all truth,
nobody knows at this point where Ike is headed (in terms of landfall after Cuba).
Obviously Cubans should be evacuating now.

Could this go to new orleans? That'd be horrible, but yes it could/
Could it go west to Texas and hit SE Texas? Yes it could.
Could it Hit Mississippi/Alabama? Yes it could
Could it hit the Yucatan Mexico? Yes it could

Guys, nobody knows. These models are very frustrated for an amateur weather
studier like me, and the fact is, nobody knows. So everyone be ready just in case,
that's what you are supposed to be at the beginning of hurricane season. Don't procrastinate,
watch the updates every 3 hours, but keep in mind, nobody knows where the monster goes.
Cause round and round Hurricane Ike Flows, where he goes, nobody knows, that's just the way
it is with this stuff.

[Pearl River]

ColdFusion wrote:
jinftl wrote:
Are you hearing when....and if...evacuation is necesaary in new orleans it would begin?

PTrackerLA wrote:
Unbelievable . PLEASE someone else take this storm. I can't believe NOLA is already in the 5 day cone.


Dont think any official word yet, but if I had to guess...lets see its in the 5 day cone already. A Cat3 requires evacs start 3 days prior to landfall, so that means evacs Mon or Tue at the latest. My guess anyway.

It takes 72hrs to evacuate NOLA and the lower parishes.

[deltadog03]

Mr. Delta Dog


Have you seen any of the G-IV data, and does the data match what the current model runs think? I know it isn't in the models yet, but it should be able to serve as a QC check.

To be honest, I am not sure....I havn't seen/heard of them yet...

[jinftl]

Just occurred to me that since at least part of south florida is still in the cone...now the 3 day cone...it is probably not unusual for the NHC to make reference to areas in the 72 hour cone for a Cat 4....

Why does the NHC keep mentioning South Florida. This is clearly not a South Florida threat anymore:

Surely, if a storm is south and east of ones location (i.e., S FL) - AND its track is forecast to be within ~150 miles of said location - it stands to reason that said location may be threatened by the storm!! I don't mean to keep calling you Shirley, but surely you know this????? To say "clearly not a threat" is perhaps a bit on the extreme side of optimism.

To say "the threat is diminishing", however, might offer a clearer picture to the less informed – and also be more in line with climatology and history (not that either is truly playing by the rules with Ike).

[Cyclenall]

I just want to remind you guys that some of the models like the GFDL and HWRF back 3-4 days ago were showing Ike being a strong category 4 or category 5 just north of DR. I wonder if that can happen now .

[ColdFusion]

ColdFusion wrote:
jinftl wrote:
Are you hearing when....and if...evacuation is necesaary in new orleans it would begin?

PTrackerLA wrote:
Unbelievable . PLEASE someone else take this storm. I can't believe NOLA is already in the 5 day cone.


Dont think any official word yet, but if I had to guess...lets see its in the 5 day cone already. A Cat3 requires evacs start 3 days prior to landfall, so that means evacs Mon or Tue at the latest. My guess anyway.

It takes 72hrs to evacuate NOLA and the lower parishes.

Yes, 72 hours / 24 = 3 days.

[CourierPR]

Dr. Max Mayfield said at 5:00 pm that he wanted to see the G-IV data before he would feel comfortable.

[jinftl]

Current forecast takes him to 145mph....certainly a Cat 5 not out the question.

I just want to remind you guys that some of the models like the GFDL and HWRF back 3-4 days ago were showing Ike being a strong category 4 or category 5 just north of DR. I wonder if that can happen now .

[PTPatrick]

Another bit of history...of all Cat3,4,5's within 300 miles to IKE in September that actually made it to the GOM...Betsy, 1926, and 1947...ALL made land fall from MOBILE TO GRAND ISLE. No majors in the area of IKE have EVER made it south of CUBA or to the Carrib in September. MOST have been recurves. Oddly enough all 3 of those storm hit the NGOM after landfalls near Miami and were quite bad on the New Orleans and Mobile area. I can remember Grandmother talking about how the 1947 was thew worst for Pascagoula before Camille. I know its just history but its interesting. Just goes to show how hard it is for a Bermuda high to push a major south into the Carrib from Bahamas in September.

[pablolopez26]

I dont want this storm, the weather in Houston has been gorgeous the past two days!

[KWT]

Yep 9% chance of a cat-5, not impossible though I note that by that time it would over Cuba.

[Flakeys]

A forecast change in the progress of Hurricane Ike is providing Keys emergency managers an opportunity to re-evaluate plans for Sunday’s mandatory resident evacuation, officials said Saturday.


“Forecasters are telling us that track changes and a slower forward speed of Ike may provide more time for the evacuation,” said Monroe County Administrator Roman Gastesi. “This coupled with Miami-Dade’s plans to delay possible evacuations on the mainland buys us more time.”


Gastesi said that emergency management officials plan to make decisions evacuations following the 5 a.m. Sunday Hurricane Ike advisory from the National Hurricane Center.


“We urge all Keys residents to check the county’s Website (http://www.monroecounty-fl.gov) or Channel 76 or local media before they leave,” Gastesi said.


Gastesi said that all Keys residents should continue wrapping up hurricane preparations and executing their hurricane plan with the intent on departing Sunday at times previously announced.


There will be no changes to the mandatory visitor evacuation, Gastesi said. Keys visitors were asked to leave beginning at 8 a.m. Saturday.


Once the evacuation begins the two drawbridges in Monroe County including Snake Creek and Jewfish Creek will not open for marine traffic (boats) to avoid any vehicular traffic (cars, etc.) delays.

[jinftl]

Interesting that those were all south florida storms...and bad ones....before they entered the Gulf. Maybe ike will buck the trend of a south florida landfall followed by a Gulf Coast one being the pattern.

Another bit of history...of all Cat3,4,5's within 300 miles to IKE in September that actually made it to the GOM...Betsy, 1926, and 1947...ALL made land fall from MOBILE TO GRAND ISLE. No majors in the area of IKE have EVER made it south of CUBA or to the Carrib in September. Oddly enough all 3 of those storm hit the NGOM after landfalls near Miami and were quite bad on the New Orleans and Mobile area. I can remember Grandmother talking about how the 1947 was thew worst for Pascagoula before Camille. I know its just history but its interesting. Just goes to show how hard it is for a Bermuda high to push a major south into the Carrib from Bahamas in September.

[cpdaman]

hwrf track is a bit interesting in the short term

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

the turks and caicos weather stations have stopped reporting in the last 45 minutes, i guess no more "live storm data" from there.

[baygirl_1]

ColdFusion wrote:
jinftl wrote:
Are you hearing when....and if...evacuation is necesaary in new orleans it would begin?

PTrackerLA wrote:
Unbelievable . PLEASE someone else take this storm. I can't believe NOLA is already in the 5 day cone.


Dont think any official word yet, but if I had to guess...lets see its in the 5 day cone already. A Cat3 requires evacs start 3 days prior to landfall, so that means evacs Mon or Tue at the latest. My guess anyway.

It takes 72hrs to evacuate NOLA and the lower parishes.

Not sure if anyone has posted this (it's tough at times to sift through all the pages when posts are being made at "lightning speed" )--- One of our local stations had this posted on their website about the getting power back up in LA in case evacuations for Ike are called. Here's the link: http://www.wkrg.com/hurricane/article/ike_lack_of_electricity_may_complicate_new_evacuations/17711/
(We're about to head to Mass... time to pray for those in Ike's path and pray it goes away!)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I dont want this storm, the weather in Houston has been gorgeous the past two days!

Cool Autumn weather, with comfortably warm days with low humidity, and refreshing mornings well into the 60s. Courtesy of the Westerlies that have been over Texas for a while, and would make it unlikely anything makes it this far.

[TampaFl]

Could Ike turn west and then northwest sooner than what the models indicate? Looking at this map it could stay just on the north coast of Cuba. Then again it could go inland over Cuba as forecast. Looks like the weakness/steering flow is over the Eastern Gulf & Florida. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

[Nimbus]

Dumb question, but why are both the BamS and bamD right of the other model tracks for a strengthening storm that should want to recurve poleward?

[hiflyer]

Per FltAware NOAA49, the G4, launched about 1315edt from St Croix and is due on the ground back at McDill/Tampa at 2117edt and last position was at 1738edt out in the storm. From what I can remember from the past data in the afternoon did not get fully utilized by the models until the flwng 06z runs. The bird is set for missions every 12 hrs right now per the NHC website.

[SouthFLTropics]

Interesting that those were all south florida storms...and bad ones....before they entered the Gulf. Maybe ike will buck the trend of a south florida landfall followed by a Gulf Coast one being the pattern.

Another bit of history...of all Cat3,4,5's within 300 miles to IKE in September that actually made it to the GOM...Betsy, 1926, and 1947...ALL made land fall from MOBILE TO GRAND ISLE. No majors in the area of IKE have EVER made it south of CUBA or to the Carrib in September. Oddly enough all 3 of those storm hit the NGOM after landfalls near Miami and were quite bad on the New Orleans and Mobile area. I can remember Grandmother talking about how the 1947 was thew worst for Pascagoula before Camille. I know its just history but its interesting. Just goes to show how hard it is for a Bermuda high to push a major south into the Carrib from Bahamas in September.

Bear in mind that this is only the "history" that we know about. In particular it probably only spans a couple hundred years at most. In the grand scheme of things over the Earth's lifespan that is just a blip on the radar screen.

SFT