ATL: IKE Discussion

[Vortex]

If the motion continues it will pass right over the turks and caicos islands. Does anyone have access to observations or good night webcams?

[HouTXmetro]

Ike Certainly appears to have begun a due west motion..

I'm seeing slightly South of West.

[Vortex]

I see due west through 2200utc hi-res.

[shah8]

It's due west. If anything, it's a microscopic north of west.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html
Wobble watch issued

[southerngale]

Ike Certainly appears to have begun a due west motion..

I'm seeing slightly South of West.

I've been seeing posts that it's started it's due west motion for a few days now, but it's continued on wsw. At some point, it will be accurate though.
I can't control where it goes, so if it's going to Cuba anyway, may it die there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A west track=less time over Cuba.

Who here thinks there is some chance for this to strengthen into a cat5? Yes reds and blacks would have to develop, so we would notice it doing so. Also the eye would clear out. Now we have recon. So even if it was close to a cat5 last time, we will know this time.

[tolakram]

More west claims.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Mouse on the center, watch the latitude display, still moving just south of due west, but it's more west now it appears.

[Sanibel]

You could be right this time. The intensification jerks make it hard to determine direction but the cloud top eye is definitely north of the trop point it is over. This isn't wobble watching because of the difference it would involve with this coast skimming track. Nothing you can do but see how it lines up over the next few hours.

[carversteve]

It's due west. If anything, it's a microscopic north of west.

Wasn't going to say it..but thought i saw it also...I know a wobble here a wobble there!!

[cpdaman]

It's due west. If anything, it's a microscopic north of west.

well the HRWF shows this so......it wouldn't be thaaat surprising

vortex i linked a turks and caicos weather station on last page, it is updating again, and judging by the motion of the last hour things will be going down hill fast over the next 6 hour there.

[shah8]

but the whole ball bouncing on the 21rst parallel effect is providing endless amounts of amusement...

[cpdaman]

vortex here is a link from the turks and caicos , it is accurate (nhc quoted it during hanna obs)

wind up to 27 sustained should be going downhill fast

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I truely believe that when it had that 80 nmi wide shield of red around that clear eye, that this was close to a cat5. Maybe it was maybe it was not...We never can prove it.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2008


.LONG TERM...
MAIN PROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HURRICANE IKE. IT`S TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHAT HURRICANE IKE WILL DO. HOWEVER..I HAVE
ACCEPTED THE GFS`S SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WITH REGARD
TO IT`S HANDLING OF IKE...THE MODEL SEEMS TO TAKE THE STORM MORE
TO THE RIGHT OF OUR REGION. THERE REMAINS A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. SO I FULLY
EXPECT THAT THERE MIGHT BE A TOTALLY DIFFERENT PICTURE FOR THIS
STORM BEFORE IT`S SAID AND DONE.

[MBryant]

Will this be a chute storm to the Gulf without a significant land interaction?

[Vortex]

vortex here is a link from the turks and caicos , it is accurate (nhc quoted it during hanna obs)

wind up to 27 sustained should be going downhill fast

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

Thanks Cp

[jinftl]

Forecast cone for next 12-18 hours seems to cover a west to wsw motion....unless we start to see a sharper south motion which could mean landfall...or at least a much closer approach ...over Hispanola....probably no need to be in wobble watch mode. Not hitting Cuba in the next 12-18 hours either..so wobbles now not determining landfall point there quite yet.

Way too hard to try and estimate changes in track or intensity down the road based on wobbles in the short term that are well within forecast cone. The increase in intensity and even changes in forward speed could have forecast implications down the road too...but not wobbles in short term probably won't mean too much.

[Sanibel]

It's still in 260'ish mode but could be pulling up now.

[vortex100]

Well, with the stearing winds starting to weaken after 5 days, it is going to be tough trying to figure out where Ike is going once in the GOM. Some models continue to scoot it to the west, while there is more of a general consensus that is will move northward into the central Gulf coast region.