TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

The inner center hasn't collapsed yet.

[Scorpion]

Kind of reminds me of how Frances looked when she weakened

[Thunder44]

The inner center hasn't collapsed yet.

It looks like to me, based on that microwave image. That the "outer" eyewall has already taken over, and the "inner center" is really an MCV spinning around causing a little area of showers or storms, in the eye. I wonder if it has been this way since yesterday, instead of their being two eyewalls.

[Chacor]

75 knots brings the best-track ACE to 15.1; the operational ACE is 15.235.

[KWT]

I think its moving but the problem is there is so much mess left over from the inner eyewall still that its making it hard to tell the actual movement esp given the size of the eye presently.

Indeed Scorpion the inner eyewall just doesn't want to totally decay just yet, I think its slowly on its way to completing the process but only slowly. Till its done I can't see it strengthening any though the models are forecasting some decent strengthening occuring which given the very impressive outflow does make sense, just got to sort that inner eyewall out first, I'd say give it another 6-9hrs.

[Cyclone1]

Reminds me of somewhat of Hurricane Frances in 1992.

This has been an interesting storm...

[cpdaman]

NWS says warm water is relatively shallow under bertha and that if she spins for 24 hours upwelling very well could be an issue, i think she has 12 hours to get her self to a cat 2

[KWT]

The thing is soon its going to getting an extra help from the troughs as they sweap along, indeed the GFS has this really pumping up outside 72hrs thanks to this. I think that whilst upwelling could become an issue it does have a large eye and it does seem to be slowly moving off.

[jasons2k]

Just to clarify earlier, I wasn't saying an ERC wasn't taking place...

[srainhoutx]

Lastest from HPC this morning...snipet...

THE POLAR VORTEX NEAR THE NORTH POLE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS ALASKA AND THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...WHICH BEGINS TO
DIVERT THE STORM TRACK IN EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD...LEAVING BERTHA IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[KWT]

So in other words its going to get stuck in between the different upper features. Could become a very messy pattern and probably by the time it reaches 35N the hurricane might start to beocme messier with help from Baroclinic features.

[HURAKAN]

Wow!!

[KWT]

What a strange looking hurricane bertha is now, huge eye with all the left overs seemingly inside. Lookls like the outerwall is finally totally dominant and should start to contract soon I'd have thought. Recon will be interesting!

[HURAKAN]

There you go!!!

[KWT]

Yep the inner eyewall is finally nearly gone, should start to see Bertha getting a little stronger shortly, esp if the eye can contract further.

[Sanibel]

I wasn't saying an EWR wasn't taking place either. Just saying that IR shows weak convection and dry air banding - but typical of Bertha, happening at the same time as better compact form and an attempt to change gears to a more solid large-eye donut, but lacking the strength and conditions to do it. As I said before, this would have been a fierce hurricane in late August or September. The large eye wasn't going to sustain.

[HURAKAN]

I tried to make it as accurate as possible but there is always room for error.

[KWT]

Woah a 90 miles wide eye thats huge!
Recon should be there soon enough, that must also push the strongest winds quite a bit further out from the center. Recon is going to find a very large eye isn't it!

[HURAKAN]

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[artist]

latest discussion uses the word annular in its desription of the cloud formations.