ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a "center" closer to 83W... well west of the convection

[Smurfwicked]

Sure looks like shes trying her best to avoid hitting the Yucatan Peninsula and shooting for the channel to me.

[Portastorm]

When I went to bed last night at 9pm everyone was talking about it moving inland into Nicaragua or Honduras. I guess that talk has ended?

LOL! Hey Wxman57, most of us have had the consistency of a wind sock when it comes to 94L or "Dolly-to-be."

[Chacor]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't recon lat/lons reported in degrees and minutes, and not decimal degrees? Therefore, say, 1750 is not 17.5N, but rather 1730 is 17.5N?

[cycloneye]

[bvigal]

This goe's a long ways in confirming my thinking of the LLC near 17.5/82 or so west. These west winds are at 17.2/83.5.

It pretty much kills the notion of a LLC down near 16 north, unless my theory of two LLC's is correct.

Yes, been looking too far south. And models are too far south. And if that proves true, this may have had an LLC yesterday, and this may go into the gulf.

[HURAKAN]

[perk]

Here is the numbers and what they mean

061230 1658N 08215W 7000 03000 9000 +108 +108 352159 161 145 100 00
Taking the last line:

1) 06:12:30 GMT
2) 16.58N
3) 82.15W
4) Static pressure in airplane of 700.0hPa
5) Geopotential height of 3000m
6) 30 second surface pressure mean extrapolation of 900.0hPa
7) 30 second mean air temperature of +10.8C
8) 30 second mean dew point of +10.8C
9) 30 second mean wind direction of 352 degrees
10) 30 second mean wind of 159kts
11) Ten second gust of 161kts
12) Peak ten second SFMR surface wind of 145kts
13) SFMR precipitation rate of 100mmh[sup]-1[/sup]
14) Suspect data codes are as follows:

First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=101890&start=0

Thanks for your help.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow what organization from yesterday. This really looks like a ts now, as opposed to that giant rectangle of sporadic convection we had yesterday. lol

[Chacor]

As I said on the previous page, isn't the lat/lon reported in degrees and minutes, not decimal degrees?

[Derek Ortt]

yes, its in deg/min format

[perk]

When I went to bed last night at 9pm everyone was talking about it moving inland into Nicaragua or Honduras. I guess that talk has ended?

I agree that talk should be laid to rest.

[Sanibel]

I don't understand why it still has that bottom convection area when the top one is obviously bursting in black IR and showing development? Is there a center there being reflected to the north convection by shear?

The ULL is still spinning right ahead of 94L, but 94L has slowly gotten the upper hand on it which shows the energy it has.

Where is the forming TS in the Caribbean in that shot?

Look out ahead!

[stevetampa33614]

welp bed time. 100% sure I wont be waking up to a Category 3 Monster.

[lrak]

maybe not, aren't they still finding west winds on a south heading.

[cheezyWXguy]

maybe not, aren't they still finding west winds on a south heading.

No. They so far have found winds out of the W, WNW, NW, and WSW, and I think also SW...this is probably closed right now.

[bvigal]

As I said on the previous page, isn't the lat/lon reported in degrees and minutes, not decimal degrees?

pojo wrote:
Here is the numbers and what they mean

061230 1658N 08215W 7000 03000 9000 +108 +108 352159 161 145 100 00
Taking the last line:

1) 06:12:30 GMT
2) 16.58N <--decimal
3) 82.15W

I'm really confused now. That looks like decimal to me, how I've always read it. The rule I was taught in navigation clas, if it isn't decimal, don't USE a decimal to express it.

[ronjon]

If RECON finds a closed circulation (which appears likely given the west winds) then I see an immediate upgrade at the 11 AM advisory to a TD or perhaps even a 40 mph tropical storm. Now, who wants to place a bet on the location of the LLC? I'm thinking broad and around 18N-82W.

[littlevince]

[Chacor]

If you look, you will see that the last two digits in the lat/lon never exceed 59. That's a big indication it's degrees/minutes.