ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Now even mets are agreeing with this such as Air Force Met, who believes that 92L may never develop if it landfalls in DR

He never said that, he simply said "in the near term", probably meaning the next 24-48hrs. Clearly if it goes over land its not going to develop any further but thats not to say its going to die becuase its going to find itself over super condusive waters in about 48hrs time and to write it off would be the same as to write of the wave that became Katrina IMO...

Just as it finally gets its act on it runs into land, isn't that ironic!

[Derek Ortt]

Gatorcane, I would not use Ernesto as an example....because Ernesto actually was severely disrupted by the DR and Cuba. It never even reached hurricane strength after its encounter with Cuba. I'm not ruling out a major hurricane, but one has to admit that the chances of this becoming a major decreases exponentially with the more land it encounters. And an encounter with the DR and Cuba will not help this system become a major hurricane. I'd say 10% chance at best right now imo. That being said, lets not downplay this system, because it likely will cause some tragic deaths in Hispanola today because of heavy rain.

Ernesto collapsed even before hitting Haiti

that was mid level shear

a better comparison would be Noel

[Frank2]

Don't have too much time to be on here today, but, per the below WV loop, 93L is about to be crunched by a ULL that is dropping SW ahead of it, and, the UL/TUTT-type feature west of Jamaica is about stationary this morning, so, hopefully 92L will get crunched, too...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Stormcenter]

Not as impressive looking right now. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

I do not see a surface circulation on the 1K visible this morning

the radar has a few eddies, but no well-defined center

may have to wait until Sunday to develop if current trends continue, which will all but eliminate the major hurricane threat to Florida

[GreenSky]

Gatorcane, I would not use Ernesto as an example....because Ernesto actually was severely disrupted by the DR and Cuba. It never even reached hurricane strength after its encounter with Cuba. I'm not ruling out a major hurricane, but one has to admit that the chances of this becoming a major decreases exponentially with the more land it encounters. And an encounter with the DR and Cuba will not help this system become a major hurricane. I'd say 10% chance at best right now imo. That being said, lets not downplay this system, because it likely will cause some tragic deaths in Hispanola today because of heavy rain.

Ernesto collapsed even before hitting Haiti

that was mid level shear

a better comparison would be Noel

Derek, what are your thoughts on 92L given recent trends? Will its long term track change due to it taking a more westerly track the past 12 hours...and will it go through the spine of DR and get ripped apart

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, I would not use Ernesto as an example....because Ernesto actually was severely disrupted by the DR and Cuba. It never even reached hurricane strength after its encounter with Cuba. I'm not ruling out a major hurricane, but one has to admit that the chances of this becoming a major decreases exponentially with the more land it encounters. And an encounter with the DR and Cuba will not help this system become a major hurricane. I'd say 10% chance at best right now imo. That being said, lets not downplay this system, because it likely will cause some tragic deaths in Hispanola today because of heavy rain.

Ernesto collapsed even before hitting Haiti

that was mid level shear

a better comparison would be Noel

Yeah Noel would be a better example now that I think about it. Good point...

[CourierPR]

Looks like any LLC is over land in PR.

It's nw of PR.

[Derek Ortt]

Gatorcane, I would not use Ernesto as an example....because Ernesto actually was severely disrupted by the DR and Cuba. It never even reached hurricane strength after its encounter with Cuba. I'm not ruling out a major hurricane, but one has to admit that the chances of this becoming a major decreases exponentially with the more land it encounters. And an encounter with the DR and Cuba will not help this system become a major hurricane. I'd say 10% chance at best right now imo. That being said, lets not downplay this system, because it likely will cause some tragic deaths in Hispanola today because of heavy rain.

Ernesto collapsed even before hitting Haiti

that was mid level shear

a better comparison would be Noel

Derek, what are your thoughts on 92L given recent trends? Will its long term track change due to it taking a more westerly track the past 12 hours...and will it go through the spine of DR and get ripped apart

this wont be ripped apart. Waves do not dissipate over Hispaniola

We could see some old fashioned lee side cyclogenesis after it crosses Hispaniola

[gatorcane]

I do not see a surface circulation on the 1K visible this morning

the radar has a few eddies, but no well-defined center

may have to wait until Sunday to develop if current trends continue, which will all but eliminate the major hurricane threat to Florida

Good news Derek I have no desire to put up Hurricane shutters on my house this weekend. Let's hope the islands tear this thing apart

[hawkeh]

Glad this thing hasn't developed. Hoping it gets torn up over the islands.

[KWT]

may have to wait until Sunday to develop if current trends continue, which will all but eliminate the major hurricane threat to Florida

Yep obviously won't get any stronger overland and even if it did have a LLC it wouldn't survive the trip but I think Hispaniola won't exactly destroy its MLC or the convection too badly.

What about to the Carolinas however, I think thats where this one is destined to go myself rather than Florida, given it has more time as well if it took that track?

[Trader Ron]

Normandy, I agree with. I don't know if that's a good thing. lol.
It MIGHT remain an open wave right through the Bahama chain.

If it survives, I agree with the GFDL/HWRF solution.

[DESTRUCTION5]

this wont be ripped apart. Waves do not dissipate over Hispaniola

We could see some old fashioned lee side cyclogenesis after it crosses Hispaniola

What exactly is Lee Side Dev Ortt?

[KWT]

If it gets over the islands with its energy in tact and a MLC then I'd fully expect this to still develop in the Bahamas region, IMO the only way it remians an open wave over the Bahamas is if it totally dies over the islands...totally...

[GreenSky]

may have to wait until Sunday to develop if current trends continue, which will all but eliminate the major hurricane threat to Florida

Yep obviously won't get any stronger overland and even if it did have a LLC it wouldn't survive the trip but I think Hispaniola won't exactly destroy its MLC or the convection too badly.

What about to the Carolinas however, I think thats where this one is destined to go myself rather than Florida, given it has more time as well if it took that track?

Why do you believe 92L has a better chance of going to the Carolinas then Florida...what happened to the ridging?

If 92L takes more time, which you suggested, then it would miss the trough connection.

[storms in NC]

[img][/img]

Could this be the Start of the center? Please don't blast me out. I am not good at picking this things out

[txwatcher91]

Derek, what are your thoughts on 92L given recent trends? Will its long term track change due to it taking a more westerly track the past 12 hours...and will it go through the spine of DR and get ripped apart

this wont be ripped apart. Waves do not dissipate over Hispaniola

We could see some old fashioned lee side cyclogenesis after it crosses Hispaniola

Derek, what are your thoughts on the models? Do you think the GFDL and HWRF have the right idea? If so, it would have a long time over water and could become a Cat 3 with the Gulf Stream and pretty high TCHP and good upper level conditions, especially in the bahamas and then heading north.

[Derek Ortt]

lee side cyclogenesis is development after crossing a mountain range

related to the principle of conservation of PV. Happens in the Rockies all the time

[Category 5]

Glad this thing hasn't developed. Hoping it gets torn up over the islands.

Thats what we're all hoping, hopefully it faces the same fate as Debby.